If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

michaels wrote: »

Looking at Betfair history for this market I can say with some certainty that the odds have flutuated over time wihout really showing any trend. however if you are confident that this is part of such a trend you know where to put your money.

Last time the odds were over 4.0 I thought it looked like a but and sure enough within a week it was below 3.0

A 3% move is just noise and this was even broadcast on ABC Radio as I was driving home tonight as 'evidence' that a Brexit is increasingly unlikely to happen **sighs**

mayonnaise

London is rather 'remain' because much of London's economy is intrinsically linked with the EU. Nothing to do with the proportion of migrants.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

London is rather 'remain' because much of London's economy is intrinsically linked with the EU. Nothing to do with the proportion of migrants.

could you provide the evidence for this assertion ?

Filo25

Where to start.

I am concerned with the welfare and standard of living of the UK people.

So am I obviously, otherwise I'd be voting Brexit and choosing ideology over economic growth. I'd be choosing to neuter the London economy which has basically been the engine for the UK's relative economic success in recent years.

I include in this the price of housing and the ability of young people to live in a family sized house : do you?

Build more houses then, only we won't do that because quietly most politicians think high property prices are good for them electorally, as pointed elsewhere young people in the areas most impacted by the issue, appear to think its a price worth paying for remaining membership of the EU.

I include in this the ability to access health care : do you?

Of course, which is why I favour funding healthcare properly in this country which needs the largest possible tax base and economy to support it, do you also want to kick out all of the immigrants currently working in the NHS, I would suggest that potentially having large numbers of UK pensioners living in the EU returning home because their access to healthcare is now restricted mightn't help much either.

I include in this the worsening travel times, overcrowding etc : do you.

I live in London so unlike many on here I'm actually impacted by it and yes its annoying but nothing that's going to massively influence my vote.

I include the worsen balance of payments caused by the increasing population requiring more imports (food stuffs, gas, fuel, electronic goods etc ) but not producing more exports : do you?

I would say our balance of payments have been worsening in the short term because we have been growing faster than many other western economies, Brexit should certainly address that situation in the short term, although some would suggest the medicine is significantly worse than the disease in that case.

As you already know our trade is falling with the EU and will continue to do so and our trade with the rest of the world is continuing to rise : I expect this trend to continue : do you?

Probably, it will fall a lot faster under Brexit than without I have no doubt, and I have yet to see the great plan for where we can get these new good quickly agreed trade deals to replace lost trade with the EU, the reason nobody has seen that plan is because it clearly doesn't exist.

I disagree that VAT of thermal insulation products should be 20% but would prefer 5% or zero : would you?

I don't really care.

I disagree that we should have had tariffs on the agricultural products of third world countries for the last 50 years, as I consider this has damaged their economy and probably been a significant factors in the migration of millions : do you?

I do partially but you won't see significant reform with or without EU membership, because the current government isn't going to cross the farming/countryside lobby anymore than the EU is. If the Tories lose the shires they aren't getting elected anytime soon.


Ultimately intra-EU migration to the UK has been driven largely by the UK and in particular London's relative economic success.

There are worse problems to have than having young economically active people who have the get up and go to leave their country in search of work and the opportunities to improve themselves coming to your country, where you actually need the additional workforce.

Lots of other European countries would love to have that particular "problem" in the face of aging populations and the demographic timebomb some will be facing sooner rather than later, yes it might only be kicking that problem down the road but its still better than facing it now.

Nobody's denying that it causes issues as well and there are winners and losers in every situation, but those expecting Brexit to lead to some kind of utopia will be very disappointed by the results.

Nobody's also denying that the EU and Eurozone in particular faces hefty challenges, but I'd rather be part of the solution on that and pushing for reform on the inside than losing any influence we have, because whether we stay in the EU or not, there would be consequences for the UK if the EU did fall apart down the line.

Filo25

michaels wrote: »

I thought I was addressing the question you raised of why London was the most 'remain' region of the country despite being most impacted by the housing and infrastructure issues caused by uncontrolled population increase rather than who should be allowed to vote?

The reason that younger people tend to be to the left of the political spectrum and older people to the right is a different question imho.

Its not quite as simple as a left right split though, as if you look at yougov's split of the numbers while Labour voters are certainly more Europhile than Tories, so are the upper socioeconomic groups.

ABC1's lean towards remain C2DE's lean towards Brexit, also a fair correlation between education and leaning towards remain, the higher someone's educational level the more likely they are to vote remain.

CLAPTON

Filo25 wrote: »

Where to start.

I am concerned with the welfare and standard of living of the UK people.

So am I obviously, otherwise I'd be voting Brexit and choosing ideology over economic growth. I'd be choosing to neuter the London economy which has basically been the engine for the UK's relative economic success in recent years.

I include in this the price of housing and the ability of young people to live in a family sized house : do you?

Build more houses then, only we won't do that because quietly most politicians think high property prices are good for them electorally, as pointed elsewhere young people in the areas most impacted by the issue, appear to think its a price worth paying for remaining membership of the EU.

I include in this the ability to access health care : do you?

Of course, which is why I favour funding healthcare properly in this country which needs the largest possible tax base and economy to support it, do you also want to kick out all of the immigrants currently working in the NHS, I would suggest that potentially having large numbers of UK pensioners living in the EU returning home because their access to healthcare is now restricted mightn't help much either.

I include in this the worsening travel times, overcrowding etc : do you.

I live in London so unlike many on here I'm actually impacted by it and yes its annoying but nothing that's going to massively influence my vote.

I include the worsen balance of payments caused by the increasing population requiring more imports (food stuffs, gas, fuel, electronic goods etc ) but not producing more exports : do you?

I would say our balance of payments have been worsening in the short term because we have been growing faster than many other western economies, Brexit should certainly address that situation in the short term, although some would suggest the medicine is significantly worse than the disease in that case.

As you already know our trade is falling with the EU and will continue to do so and our trade with the rest of the world is continuing to rise : I expect this trend to continue : do you?

Probably, it will fall a lot faster under Brexit than without I have no doubt, and I have yet to see the great plan for where we can get these new good quickly agreed trade deals to replace lost trade with the EU, the reason nobody has seen that plan is because it clearly doesn't exist.

I disagree that VAT of thermal insulation products should be 20% but would prefer 5% or zero : would you?

I don't really care.

I disagree that we should have had tariffs on the agricultural products of third world countries for the last 50 years, as I consider this has damaged their economy and probably been a significant factors in the migration of millions : do you?

I do partially but you won't see significant reform with or without EU membership, because the current government isn't going to cross the farming/countryside lobby anymore than the EU is. If the Tories lose the shires they aren't getting elected anytime soon.


Ultimately intra-EU migration to the UK has been driven largely by the UK and in particular London's relative economic success.

There are worse problems to have than having young economically active people who have the get up and go to leave their country in search of work and the opportunities to improve themselves coming to your country, where you actually need the additional workforce.

Lots of other European countries would love to have that particular "problem" in the face of aging populations and the demographic timebomb some will be facing sooner rather than later, yes it might only be kicking that problem down the road but its still better than facing it now.

Nobody's denying that it causes issues as well and there are winners and losers in every situation, but those expecting Brexit to lead to some kind of utopia will be very disappointed by the results.

Nobody's also denying that the EU and Eurozone in particular faces hefty challenges, but I'd rather be part of the solution on that and pushing for reform on the inside than losing any influence we have, because whether we stay in the EU or not, there would be consequences for the UK if the EU did fall apart down the line.

What reforms of the EU would you push for?

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

If someone could make a credible economic case why leaving would be better for us in the short to medium term then I would listen, a lot of people would, we just haven't heard one, hell we haven't even heard the plan for what the UK's trade relations with the rest of the world will look like post Brexit.

There is no economic case for leaving if you only consider the short to medium term.

Brexit is not a short to medium term decision. It's long term and strategic. It is not purely an economic decision. Most intelligent people understand these fundamental points.

As well as not hearing about what the UKs trade relations will look like after Brexit, you also haven't heard what the 'reformed EU' that remain keep harping on about will look like either.
You haven't heard what these reforms are
You haven't heard who else will support them
You haven't heard what happens if we don't get them
You haven't heard why DC didn't ask for or get them in his 'negotiation'

all you have heard is that we want to reform the EU, yet there is no historic evidence to suggest that is possible and no actual plan about what will happen if we remain.

Filo25

Structurally a clear move towards core and periphery, as the biggest economy by far of the periphery nations, with the most power in negotiations we should help to ensure the powers of the periphery nations are protected, and we are not forced to a significantly down the route of further economic or political integration without consent.

Sooner or later the EU will have to address the issues the Euro is causing the Mediterranean nations in particular, we should be helping to push that towards sooner, either those countries will need to take some very strong economic reforms or we will need to start work on a mechanism to unwind the Eurozone for certain nations who have so far proven unwilling or unable to adapt to the new economic environment they find themselves in within the Euro.

Filo25

mrginge wrote: »

There is no economic case for leaving if you only consider the short to medium term.

Brexit is not a short to medium term decision. It's long term and strategic. It is not purely an economic decision. Most intelligent people understand these fundamental points.

As well as not hearing about what the UKs trade relations will look like after Brexit, you also haven't heard what the 'reformed EU' that remain keep harping on about will look like either.
You haven't heard what these reforms are
You haven't heard who else will support them
You haven't heard what happens if we don't get them
You haven't heard why DC didn't ask for or get them in his 'negotiation'

all you have heard is that we want to reform the EU, yet there is no historic evidence to suggest that is possible and no actual plan about what will happen if we remain.

Thanks for the honesty in admitting the issues with Brexit in the short to medium term, you would be surprised how many in the Brexit camp are unwilling to admit them, in the same way that many in the Remain camp cannot admit that the EU itself is a deeply flawed institution.

I am certainly willing to accept that in the long term the case for either Leave or Remain is economically much greyer on both sides, for exactly the reasons you have pointed out, nobody knows what the EU will look like in 15 -20 years and nobody knows what our trade relations outside the EU will look like in 15-20 years.

For me though I still have an issue with taking an economic hit over the next 5-10 years with no guarantee of an upside at the end of that, if I was running the economy as the infamous UK plc, that mightn't look like the most attractive investment opportunity.

mrginge

Filo25 wrote: »

Structurally a clear move towards core and periphery, as the biggest economy by far of the periphery nations, with the most power in negotiations we should help to ensure the powers of the periphery nations are protected, and we are not forced to a significantly down the route of further economic or political integration without consent.

Sooner or later the EU will have to address the issues the Euro is causing the Mediterranean nations in particular, we should be helping to push that towards sooner, either those countries will need to take some very strong economic reforms or we will need to start work on a mechanism to unwind the Eurozone for certain nations who have so far proven unwilling or unable to adapt to the new economic environment they find themselves in within the Euro.

So you want to introduce a two speed Europe, where those outside the core have a role in deciding the policies of those within the core.

You wish to re-evaluate EUR membership for countries that are deemed non-compliant. How will you pursuade these countries to ditch the Euro? Why should the UK, as a peripheral country have any say in that decision?

What will your position be if the other countries do not accept your proposals?