If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

michaels wrote: »

Interesting, do you think this translates into values in Australia, for example in terms of women's rights etc?


Sadly it is very easy to use the racist card to 'dog whistle' to a certain segment of the electorate but there are many in favour of Brexit who would like to see more visas given to Indian software engineers, Chinese Post Grads and Filipino nurses but would rather this was done whilst keeping overall inward migration at current 1% pa levels rather than increasing it. Of course this would require letting in fewer East European self employed car wash operatives and potentially middle class car owners paying more to get their cars hand-washed....

Isn't one of the problems being faced by Britain that no "home grown" Brit started a successful Hand Car Wash business. Now the cry is send them home so we can take over their business, if we can get up in the morning.

gfplux

Filo25 wrote: »

From the inflation point of view, I would imagine there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to how hard Sterling will get hit in the aftermath of Brexit, to be honest its something concerning me as we are about to book a US trip for later in the year, just paying a deposit on it now, and conscious that its not something I may want to go through with if Sterling weakens considerably against the Dollar post Brexit.

I would rank the prospect of us voting to leave a lot higher than the Bookies seem to be currently doing.

I wonder if there will be any greater clarity from the Leave campaign of their vision for the UK's relations with rEU and the rest of the World post Brexit, at the moment it seems to vary depending on who you speak to and what day of the week it is.

You are quite right to be concerned. The current rates have taken account of the present uncertainty. However if the Vote is for Brexit, then the uncertainty will increase significantly and the Pound will drop against the US dollar. As things become clearer the Pound will slowly recover. If the vote is to stay then the Pound will strengthen against both the Dollar and the Euro.
So you are faced with buying dollars now and getting a better or worse rate after the referendum. Or sit on your hands and decide your holiday destination after the vote.
The uncertainty that you feel is reflected in tens of thousands of minds.
Example - how confident would an Italian feel about booking a visit to London for July? How comfortable is the New Yorker feeling about a Golfing holiday in Scotland?
The sooner the vote is over the better we all will be. We can then deal with the actual situation rather than this growing uncertainty.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

You are quite right to be concerned. The current rates have taken account of the present uncertainty. However if the Vote is for Brexit, then the uncertainty will increase significantly and the Pound will drop against the US dollar. As things become clearer the Pound will slowly recover. If the vote is to stay then the Pound will strengthen against both the Dollar and the Euro.
So you are faced with buying dollars now and getting a better or worse rate after the referendum. Or sit on your hands and decide your holiday destination after the vote.
The uncertainty that you feel is reflected in tens of thousands of minds.
Example - how confident would an Italian feel about booking a visit to London for July? How comfortable is the New Yorker feeling about a Golfing holiday in Scotland?
The sooner the vote is over the better we all will be. We can then deal with the actual situation rather than this growing uncertainty.

of course the fluctuating exchange rate of the GBP has happened many times (basically most days) since we have been a member of the EU :

If it is a matter of massive concern, then we are best to leave the EU asap.

Filo25

Back with this again Clapton, just because other things can cause exchange rate movements (which nobody is denying) doesn't mean Brexit can't cause significant ones.

For someone who professes a great interest in economics you are happy enough to ignore the impacts when they don't suit you.

Anyway maybe best I leave this thread for a while, it really is getting tedious reading the same arguments all the time.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Isn't one of the problems being faced by Britain that no "home grown" Brit started a successful Hand Car Wash business. Now the cry is send them home so we can take over their business, if we can get up in the morning.

that seems extremely bigotted and racist

still at least you have dropped all that nonsense about looking for disinterested facts and truth and simply reverted to type.

gfplux

This in the Gardian today.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/16/revealed-none-of-britain-tech-unicorns-openly-support-brexit
"private companies with a valuation above $1bn (£710m), will support Britain leaving the EU, the Guardian can reveal.
Of the 14 companies on the list, five have come out as explicitly against Britain’s exit from the EU, while the rest either remained officially neutral or declined to comment on the matter.
Taavet Hinrikus, the co-founder of the financial technology (fintech) startup TransferWise, said: “We believe it would be crazy for the UK to leave the EU, both for businesses and consumers.”



Many Brexitiers have made a point very, very often that being out of the EU will allow us to decide how many softwear engineers and programmers from India we can let in. Here we have the very people who would employ them not wanting to leave the EU.
Have I misunderstood something?

And just so you know. I have not read or replied to any post by Clapton for a long time now. My posts are for the normal people on this thread.

michaels

gfplux wrote: »

You are quite right to be concerned. The current rates have taken account of the present uncertainty. However if the Vote is for Brexit, then the uncertainty will increase significantly and the Pound will drop against the US dollar. As things become clearer the Pound will slowly recover. If the vote is to stay then the Pound will strengthen against both the Dollar and the Euro.
So you are faced with buying dollars now and getting a better or worse rate after the referendum. Or sit on your hands and decide your holiday destination after the vote.
The uncertainty that you feel is reflected in tens of thousands of minds.
Example - how confident would an Italian feel about booking a visit to London for July? How comfortable is the New Yorker feeling about a Golfing holiday in Scotland?
The sooner the vote is over the better we all will be. We can then deal with the actual situation rather than this growing uncertainty.

There is costly uncertainty every time we have a general election, consider 2020 and suppose there is a real possibility of a Corbyn victory I am sure the markets would be extremely nervous. I therefore contend that the best option is to cancel democracy because it causes costly uncertainty.

mwpt

Filo25 wrote: »

Back with this again Clapton, just because other things can cause exchange rate movements (which nobody is denying) doesn't mean Brexit can't cause significant ones.

For someone who professes a great interest in economics you are happy enough to ignore the impacts when they don't suit you.

Anyway maybe best I leave this thread for a while, it really is getting tedious reading the same arguments all the time.

Even if people don't respond, some of us are reading your posts and agreeing. But I've bowed out for period as I initially didn't think I should even get involved in the brexit debates, being an immigrant myself.

Since I am writing this post, I'll just quickly link another article.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/tomchivers/paul-nurse-is-not-impressed?utm_term=.pj56dR4kA#.uvqqWMz0J

“I’ve been looking at arguments on the other side, and I am struck by their wishful thinking, naivety, and intellectual laziness. They’re saying everything will be all right on the night. I don’t think we should take those risks.

“Of course the world won’t stop and collapse, we’ll still be able to collaborate. But it’ll be more difficult, more bureaucratic, we lose influence, we can’t set the agenda. We will be left somewhat lonely and will not profit from the science that is nearby, and we’re a long way from China and the US. We aren’t crying wolf: Things will carry on, but it won’t be as good.”

I've bolded two statements that resonate with me. The leave campaign are utilising this argument that we who prefer remain think we won't be able to function outside the EU. This is a straw man argument, of course we will. We just think things won't be as good. In particular certain sectors will probably suffer, and those are high productivity sectors.

Miss_Samantha

Every time a forecast is cut, or bad figures are announced due to the referendum uncertainty, I think that we should be clear as to what it means.

It doesn't mean that investment is delayed just because of 'uncertainty', it means that investment that would have been made is held up in case the country votes for Brexit.

The risk is not the 'uncertainty' but the possibility of Brexit.

CLAPTON

mwpt wrote: »

In particular certain sectors will probably suffer, and those are high productivity sectors.

what particular arguments suggest that high productivity sectors will suffer?