If we vote for Brexit what happens

mayonnaise

wymondham wrote: »

if this all happens with Brexit, then that's another reason to leave:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/04/virgin-money-cashes-in-on-mortgage-boom/

Yes, house prices will probably crash after a brexit, it's what happens in a depression. (I notice the HPC collective rooting for brexit also.) Whether there will be any jobs to afford these cheap houses is another matter.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

Why assume that it is the EU holding things up?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-usa-trade-idUSKCN0XI0AT

Because the US has negotiated trade deals with many other countries whilst the EU has negotiated trade deals with very few.

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

Because the US has negotiated trade deals with many other countries whilst the EU has negotiated trade deals with very few.

So the US has negotiated deals with others! The issue is whether TTIP is helpful to the EU (and the UK) or not. The leak of the latest draft has raised legitimate concerns.

Fair enough if the UK disagrees with the rest of the EU and wants a deal that surrenders our support for consumer and environmental protections and gives more power to corporate interests. Presumably you favour signing a TTIP like bi-lateral deal with the US?

If so, please explain how a TTIP like deal that gives US companies the right to have a say in UK legislation preserves our sovereignty.

Second, this is a real embarrassment to the British government. Back in 2011, David Cameron vetoed an EU treaty to supposedly defend the national interest: in fact, he was worried that it threatened Britain’s financial sector. The City of London and Britain are clearly not the same thing. But Cameron has been among the staunchest champions of TTIP. He is more than happy to undermine British sovereignty and democracy, as long as it is corporate interests who are the beneficiaries.

And so we end in the perverse situation where it is the French government, rather than our own administration, protecting our sovereignty.

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/05/protest-never-changes-anything-derailing-ttip-trade-agreement

Of course you might prefer to hear this from the Torygraph itself.

Nor do the elite really know what they are doing with TTIP this time. Brussels estimates that the treaty would ultimately increase Europe's GDP by 0.5pc. If that is all there is, it is a trivial prize set against a further loss of sovereign democratic control over our laws, rules, principles, and way of life.

The treaty's army of critics is right to grumble about plans for special tribunals outside the normal court system that would allow companies to sue governments and to overturn laws passed by elected legislatures.

This from an article that is not supportive of the EU, but points out that the EU including the UK is a victim of globalisation. The Brexit argument that we can swim against this tide needs to be made.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/05/04/let-the-ttip-trade-pact-die-if-it-threatens-parliamentary-democr/

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

Yes, house prices will probably crash after a brexit, it's what happens in a depression. (I notice the HPC collective rooting for brexit also.) Whether there will be any jobs to afford these cheap houses is another matter.

fortunately there are about 9 million foreigners in the UK who will see better prospects in EU favourites like Greece, Spain, Portugal and go there instead, leaving more UK housing for the natve born and plenty (if fewer) jobs and overall much more wealthy and healthy.

Rinoa

BobQ wrote: »

So the US has negotiated deals with others! The issue is whether TTIP is helpful to the EU (and the UK) or not. The leak of the latest draft has raised legitimate concerns.

TBH I've no idea whether TTIP will be good or bad for the UK. All we see is supposedly leaked documents and the usual protesters screaming vitriol through loudhailers. We don't know if it's EU demands that have in turn provoked reciprocal demands and assurances from the US.

Your original question asked why I thought it was the EU holding up the deal which is why I pointed out the many deals the US had negotiated around the world and compared it with the EU's dismal record.

The impression I get is that the EU aren't just interested in trade alone but insist on trading partners adopting the same philosophies and ideals. They seem more interested in the political aspects rather than just the economics.

BobQ

Rinoa wrote: »

TBH I've no idea whether TTIP will be good or bad for the UK. All we see is supposedly leaked documents and the usual protesters screaming vitriol through loudhailers. We don't know if it's EU demands that have in turn provoked reciprocal demands and assurances from the US

I think it is not as simple as is claimed by the Leave campaign. Cameron and Johnson were both strong supporters of TTIP and now Johnson opposes it and cites it as a reason for leaving the EU. There are arguments for leaving, but I am not convinced that TTIP is one. If Brexit happens I believe that Cameron and Johnson and the rest of the cabinet will still support a TTIP type deal based on what they have previously said.

The US has not disputed the accuracy of the leaked document as reported by Greanpeace.

I agree we do not know about the negotiations but it is clear that FRA/GER/NLD all think it is not in the EU's interests to sign the current draft.

Your original question asked why I thought it was the EU holding up the deal which is why I pointed out the many deals the US had negotiated around the world and compared it with the EU's dismal record.

The impression I get is that the EU aren't just interested in trade alone but insist on trading partners adopting the same philosophies and ideals. They seem more interested in the political aspects rather than just the economics.

TPP covers 12 countries with a population larger than the EU and has taken 10 years to reach. It has not yet been ratified. The deal is good for exporting businesses in developed nations but is likely to see production moved to the less developed nations. It is not a simple deal to cut out tariffs. It includes various measures to require other nations to adopt the same approach to regulation (eg labour, consumer, environment, and argricuture).

So whatever you think of the EU issue, I suggest that it is just as much the US as the EU wanting to address these non-tariff issues in a trade deal.

lisyloo

I've just seen George Osborne say house prices will fall if we leave.
Is this an own goal?
I.e. Encourages those who want house price falls to join the leave campaign?

Rinoa

lisyloo wrote: »

I've just seen George Osborne say house prices will fall if we leave.
Is this an own goal?
I.e. Encourages those who want house price falls to join the leave campaign?

George Osborne will say anything to win a remain vote, most of which he knows is patently untrue.

lisyloo

Rinoa wrote: »

George Osborne will say anything to win a remain vote, most of which he knows is patently untrue.

Ok, but I was talking about people who want falling prices now moving to the leave side even at the cost of wrecking the economy, so the opposite of winning remain votes.
There are a lot of people that want affordable housing.

CLAPTON

lisyloo wrote: »

Ok, but I was talking about people who want falling prices now moving to the leave side even at the cost of wrecking the economy, so the opposite of winning remain votes.
There are a lot of people that want affordable housing.

there is no-one that wants lower houses prices if it means wrecking the economy.

However, lots of people will welcome lower immigration numbers and lower houses prices whilst maintaining a bouyant economy