If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

The above my original post that started this marathon thread.
Since then we now know the date of the referendum and we also know that there will be a two year (extendable by agreement) window to negotiate our exit.
However I don't think anyone has posted any links to preparations or plans in case of a Brexit. If I am wrong perhaps someone can point them out.

Just to add another question to my original.
Anyone want to speculate on which minister will be in charge of the Brexit negotiations?

who do you think will be PM?
who do you think will be leader of the opposition?

Rinoa

New Poll gives Brexit commanding lead:

http://goo.gl/TDKXkd

vivatifosi

Rinoa wrote: »

New Poll gives Brexit commanding lead:

http://goo.gl/TDKXkd

Brilliant! I'd definitely vote in for that one!

BobQ

gfplux wrote: »

The above my original post that started this marathon thread.
Since then we now know the date of the referendum and we also know that there will be a two year (extendable by agreement) window to negotiate our exit.
However I don't think anyone has posted any links to preparations or plans in case of a Brexit. If I am wrong perhaps someone can point them out.

Just to add another question to my original.
Anyone want to speculate on which minister will be in charge of the Brexit negotiations?

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/28/leave-campaign-economists-for-brexit-report

This presents the positive case for Brexit but (in my view) has limited justification of its optimism. It does explain how we might proceed, basically we would trade with the world on WTO terms and have no special deal with the EU for the time being.

Of course it is a view of only a handful of economists and one has admitted it would do UK manufacturing no good as we would lose some jobs and gain others.

http://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/mps-react-after-vote-leave-11269819

He went on to echo this statement in The Sun recently, writing: “Over time, if we left the EU, it seems likely that we would mostly eliminate manufacturing, leaving mainly industries such as design, marketing and hi-tech. But this shouldn’t scare us

michaels

Thinking out loud. Would it be electoral suicide in the Northern Labour/UKIP marginals for Labour to campaign strongly against Brexit hence the very low profile Labour campaign on the issue?

BobQ

michaels wrote: »

Thinking out loud. Would it be electoral suicide in the Northern Labour/UKIP marginals for Labour to campaign strongly against Brexit hence the very low profile Labour campaign on the issue?

I agree. But the fact remains that those advocating the economic virtues of Brexit are content for a further major structural shift in the economy. As bean counters they can claim the changes will be neutral, but it seems that we will lose more manufacturing capabilities (like car making) and gain more jobs in marketing.

If you have manufacturing skills, it is hardly useful to be told there will be no jobs for you but plenty of new jobs in marketing. It makes perfect sense from the bean counters perspective but no sense if you are the poor sod who cannot get a job. Still I suppose we can always increase immigration to fill the new jobs.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I agree. But the fact remains that those advocating the economic virtues of Brexit are content for a further major structural shift in the economy. As bean counters they can claim the changes will be neutral, but it seems that we will lose more manufacturing capabilities (like car making) and gain more jobs in marketing.

If you have manufacturing skills, it is hardly useful to be told there will be no jobs for you but plenty of new jobs in marketing. It makes perfect sense from the bean counters perspective but no sense if you are the poor sod who cannot get a job. Still I suppose we can always increase immigration to fill the new jobs.

As net importers of car, there is obviously plenty of scope to produce more from the home market once the EU manages their own people by cutting trade and car imports with the UK.

One does feel sorry for the poor sods in the EU, who will lose their manufacturing jobs, on the stupid principle that as a percentage of the whole EU, their jobs don't matter.

BobQ

CLAPTON wrote: »

As net importers of car, there is obviously plenty of scope to produce more from the home market once the EU manages their own people by cutting trade and car imports with the UK.

One does feel sorry for the poor sods in the EU, who will lose their manufacturing jobs, on the stupid principle that as a percentage of the whole EU, their jobs don't matter.

Is Professor Minford wrong then?

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Is Professor Minford wrong then?

I don't share your worship of the great and good or the captains of industry or the presidents/PM of europe either : they have all been found to be wanting:

I don't know what will actually happen just as you don't but I think rational self interest by businesses will mean that things will go quite well.
Of course you may be right, your much admired leaders of the EU may inflict great harm on their own people but I'not as sure as you about their malevolence.

And what do your think about the deaths that the EU obsession with diesel, has inflicted on the people of the EU (obviously not as important as working time directive but............)

mayonnaise

Brexit will leave 2 million Britons in legal limbo abroad.

Yes, if we would vote ourselves into unsplendid isolation, that will indeed have repercussions for Brits abroad. Probably not of great concerns to our resident little englanders, but worth noting anyway.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/04/brexit-britons-abroad-rights-european-union-referendum