If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/f5fc15a8-f699-11e5-9afe-dd2472ea263d.html#axzz44kjBP3T2


Well worth a read as it smashes several myths used by both Brexitiers and Brussels-Botherers.

Shakethedisease

Generali wrote: »

Interesting piece on the same piece of research difference between the telephone and interwebs opinion polls here:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9661


written by a You Gov Director. This is his summary of his summary of the paper:

I like the idea of 'UKIP for Remain' supporters! About 10% of self-declared SNP voters voted No (i.e. stay in the UK).

Turnout will be key. And worryingly, while in Scotland it was older voters that made the difference for No. The opposite applies in the EU referendum. The trend among all polls is certainly going in the wrong direction for Remain the last few weeks.

Government strategists and pollsters privately admit that the central problem for the Remain side is that its support for staying in the EU is strongest among young people, the group least likely to vote. Opinium found that in the 18-34 age group, 53% said they backed staying in, against 29% who wanted to leave. But only just over half (52%) in this age group said they were certain to actually go out and vote.

Among voters in the 55-and-over category, support for leaving was far stronger, as was their certainty to vote, offering a huge advantage to the Leave side.
Some 54% of voters aged 55 and over said they wanted to leave against 30% who wanted the UK to remain in the EU. But in stark contrast to younger voters, 81% of this group were certain to vote.


Adam Drummond of Opinium said the results showed the coalition of support for Remain looked far less solid than that for Leave: “This shows how important turnout levels are going to be, particularly given the disparity between how likely the young and the old are to vote. Young people are much more pro-EU but much less likely to bother voting, meaning that a key element of Remain’s coalition is looking flaky.”

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/apr/02/eu-referendum-young-voters-brexit-leave

Shakethedisease

Mabye the Conservatives should've waited a bit before introducing these changes.

Close to 800,000 people have been disenfranchised from the electoral system since Government changes to voter registration were introduced. There were 1.8 per cent fewer voters registered under the new individual electoral system in December than in 2014, under household registration, reported the Guardian.

Students in university towns were found to be the highest at risk of being unable to vote. Canterbury has seen a 13 per cent fall, and both Cambridge and Dundee West have seen an 11 per cent fall.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-changes-to-voter-registration-leave-800000-off-election-rolls-a6845796.html

michaels

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Mabye the Conservatives should've waited a bit before introducing these changes.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/conservative-changes-to-voter-registration-leave-800000-off-election-rolls-a6845796.html

As an SNP supporter hoping for an independent Scotland in Europe presumably you will be voting leave?

I am imagining a photo-shopped image of BoJo in Stugeon's jacket pocket with the slogan 'Vote Leave, Gain Independence'

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Turnout will be key. And worryingly, while in Scotland it was older voters that made the difference for No. The opposite applies in the EU referendum. The trend among all polls is certainly going in the wrong direction for Remain the last few weeks.

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what exactly is worrying about democracy?

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

As an SNP supporter hoping for an independent Scotland in Europe presumably you will be voting leave?

Hoping for a landslide stay vote in Scotland and landslide leave vote in UK I would've thought.

michaels

wotsthat wrote: »

Hoping for a landslide stay vote in Scotland and landslide leave vote in UK I would've thought.

But if stay wins because of Scottish votes then surely that puts back any indy ref vote by at least 5 years and reduces the odds of success?

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

But I'm sure you'll join me in rejoicing about the fact we do have a voice in Europe.

Prosperous autonomous independent nations have a FULL seat at the global rule setting tables, and absolutely no sense they are somehow deprived by not having a 4% say at the EU table.


Guess what, I know this will come as a shock, but lots of independent nations that have no say on EU rules, exports lots and lots into the EU. Impossible surely?
Ford Transit UK has relocated a mass of plant to Turkey, and then exports into the EU. Impossible, I thought companies would not invest in nations not in the EU!!


Oh and last year Australia signed an intelligence and cross-border sharing deal with the EU, how can this beeeeeee, surely 'isolated' Australia is inwards looking and 'a little island floating off into the ocean'!!!
And note the UK is FAR more important in terms of a local strategic military / intelligence power.


http://eeas.europa.eu/statements-eeas/2015/150422_04_en.htm


'Today, on behalf of the EU and Australia, we agreed to move our relationship to a new strategic level by officially concluding the negotiations for the EU Australia Framework Agreement. This treaty will provide a strong basis on which to further develop our cooperation on foreign and security policy,'

wotsthat

michaels wrote: »

But if stay wins because of Scottish votes then surely that puts back any indy ref vote by at least 5 years and reduces the odds of success?

That's the risk they have to take.To get a sniff at another referendum they need a leave vote which hasn't been supported by the voters of Scotland.

I suppose if it was close and Scottish votes tipped the balance to stay the SNP might see this as an example of just how different the English and Scottish are and try for a referendum on that basis.

It's a vote to stay but hope to leave strategy.

CLAPTON

wotsthat wrote: »

That's the risk they have to take.To get a sniff at another referendum they need a leave vote which hasn't been supported by the voters of Scotland.

I suppose if it was close and Scottish votes tipped the balance to stay the SNP might see this as an example of just how different the English and Scottish are and try for a referendum on that basis.

It's a vote to stay but hope to leave strategy.

the SNP will campaign for a new Iscotland referendum only when the polls show a decent majority for a win.
The 'excuse' doesn't matter.
The result of the EU referendum is only important to the extend that it may persuade more scots to want iscotland.