If we vote for Brexit what happens

Rinoa

Interesting study into how referendum polls are being conducted, why online polls differ from telephone polls, and how pollsters are attempting to make them more accurate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35926183

michaels

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting study into how referendum polls are being conducted, why online polls differ from telephone polls, and how pollsters are attempting to make them more accurate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35926183

Thanks, useful although not what I wanted to hear, I was hoping we had shy and missed leavers much as we had tories at the GE.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

he is usually described as an Egyptian cleric
although I believe he lives in the USA at the moment

Ah yeah, Egypt that's right.

Generali

Rinoa wrote: »

Interesting study into how referendum polls are being conducted, why online polls differ from telephone polls, and how pollsters are attempting to make them more accurate.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35926183

Interesting piece on the same piece of research difference between the telephone and interwebs opinion polls here:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9661


written by a You Gov Director. This is his summary of his summary of the paper:

According to Populus, therefore, the gap comes down partially to don’t know, partially towards the different attitudinal make-up and a final chunk because they think online samples are more partisan. Their estimate is that the reality will be somewhere inbetween the results being shown by online and telephone, a little closer towards telephone. We shall see.

I like the idea of 'UKIP for Remain' supporters! About 10% of self-declared SNP voters voted No (i.e. stay in the UK).

Rinoa

michaels wrote: »

Thanks, useful although not what I wanted to hear, I was hoping we had shy and missed leavers much as we had tories at the GE.

No. The article suggests the remain vote is more firm than leave. But still all to play for. The TV debates will be very important.

dekoder

Not a poll but a good indicator here:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.118739911

Changing odds to probability (according to this betfair exchange) 66.7% chance of stay vote and 33.3% chance of leave vote.

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Of course, the EU should have banned China from dumping steel, but the Chinese may well have retaliated and stopped EU exports - which unfortunately are mostly German. So the EU let the steel in.

They should have, but...

What we know is that the British government has for the last three years been blocking efforts by the EU to equip itself with the sort of anti-dumping weaponry used by Washington to confront China.

The EU trade directorate has been rendered toothless by a British veto. So much for the canard that the UK has no influence in Brussels.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/30/britain-sacrifices-steel-industry-to-curry-favour-with-china/

michaels

mayonnaise wrote: »

They should have, but...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/30/britain-sacrifices-steel-industry-to-curry-favour-with-china/

Except that the EU by its nature is protectionist (note how long it takes to negotiate any external trade deals and the high prices we pay for food and electronics due to EU duties) so giving the EU powers to restrict trade is likely to be pretty much a one way street towards protectionism favouring vested interests at the expense of consumers.

mayonnaise

michaels wrote: »

Except that the EU by its nature is protectionist (note how long it takes to negotiate any external trade deals and the high prices we pay for food and electronics due to EU duties) so giving the EU powers to restrict trade is likely to be pretty much a one way street towards protectionism favouring vested interests at the expense of consumers.

The EU can't win, can it?
When British steel is in trouble, someone posts it's the EU's fault for not imposing high enough tariffs.
When it transpires it's actually a British veto that blocked those higher tariffs, the problem is EU protectionism.

But I'm sure you'll join me in rejoicing about the fact we do have a voice in Europe.

CLAPTON

mayonnaise wrote: »

They should have, but...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/03/30/britain-sacrifices-steel-industry-to-curry-favour-with-china/

clearly only a moron would say the UK has NO influence in the EU : that makes the rest of his article pretty worthless.