If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

Remain remains well clear in latest poll:

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9659

Given that there will be plenty that plan to vote Leave that will switcj at the last moment to the status quo (normal in a referendum), Leave still have plenty to do.

michaels

If you factor in likelihood to vote the remain lead is 2% - as you [STRIKE]spin[/STRIKE] say, well clear....

Looking at all the polls there is not only a big difference of opinion between phone/online but also between different companies with each company getting fairly consistent results. There are 3 pollsters that are showing neck and neck and three others showing a large remain lead.

I don't think you can take anything from the polling at the moment so the best guide has got to be Betfair.

It is a funny old phony war at the moment, the leave side think they will gain votes by making the govt unpopular (mid term votes are always a good opportunity to kick the incumbent) where as Labour appear to be pulling their punches for the same reason....

Generali

michaels wrote: »

If you factor in likelihood to vote the remain lead is 2% - as you [STRIKE]spin[/STRIKE] say, well clear....

Looking at all the polls there is not only a big difference of opinion between phone/online but also between different companies with each company getting fairly consistent results. There are 3 pollsters that are showing neck and neck and three others showing a large remain lead.

I don't think you can take anything from the polling at the moment so the best guide has got to be Betfair.

It is a funny old phony war at the moment, the leave side think they will gain votes by making the govt unpopular (mid term votes are always a good opportunity to kick the incumbent) where as Labour appear to be pulling their punches for the same reason....

Betfair has Remain at 2-1 on, Leave at 2-1 against in a pretty liquid market.

TBH the referendum is basically impossible to poll for as you have nothing to base a methodology on. My opinion is that the polls got the Scottish referendum polling right by luck mostly although it probably helped that Yessers were overwhelmingly likely to be SNP supporters.

HornetSaver

Generali wrote: »

Betfair has Remain at 2-1 on, Leave at 2-1 against in a pretty liquid market.

TBH the referendum is basically impossible to poll for as you have nothing to base a methodology on. My opinion is that the polls got the Scottish referendum polling right by luck mostly although it probably helped that Yessers were overwhelmingly likely to be SNP supporters.

The bookies are usually better at predicting general elections than pollsters. Partly because gambling - among males - is a decent cross-section of most demographics (young, old, rich, poor, able-bodied and disabled in surprisingly representative proportions - the only people it doesn't take into account are those who would not consider gambling for religious reasons).

As for pollsters, they had plenty to base a methodology on for the general election. The only parties they really got right were UKIP, the Lib Dems and the SNP. Even for those parties, seat projections were wildly out apart from the exit poll.

Generali

HornetSaver wrote: »

The bookies are usually better at predicting general elections than pollsters. Partly because gambling - among males - is a decent cross-section of most demographics (young, old, rich, poor, able-bodied and disabled in surprisingly representative proportions - the only people it doesn't take into account are those who would not consider gambling for religious reasons).

As for pollsters, they had plenty to base a methodology on for the general election. The only parties they really got right were UKIP, the Lib Dems and the SNP. Even for those parties, seat projections were wildly out apart from the exit poll.

True although after the fact they seem to have understood where the problem lies as they did after 1992.

While I would never put all my faith in polls, pollsters are generally pretty good at what they do if you understand the methodology well enough to sort out the voodoo polls and puff pieces from the Real Thing.

gfplux

Generali wrote: »

Betfair has Remain at 2-1 on, Leave at 2-1 against in a pretty liquid market.

TBH the referendum is basically impossible to poll for as you have nothing to base a methodology on. My opinion is that the polls got the Scottish referendum polling right by luck mostly although it probably helped that Yessers were overwhelmingly likely to be SNP supporters.

That looks a worthwhile bet at 2 - 1 against for Brexit. However I have a feeling a lot of money has been laid by currency traders. A Brexit will have the Pound fall like a stone but 2 to 1 linked to a currency hedge sounds easy money. Anyone on here had a go yet.

michaels

gfplux wrote: »

That looks a worthwhile bet at 2 - 1 against for Brexit. However I have a feeling a lot of money has been laid by currency traders. A Brexit will have the Pound fall like a stone but 2 to 1 linked to a currency hedge sounds easy money. Anyone on here had a go yet.

I said it looked like a good mug bet at 3:1 and within a week it had come in to 2:1 - but then again I am not a mug bettor.

Rinoa

How EU green taxes killed British Steel.

http://order-order.com/2016/03/30/eu-taxes-and-regulations-killed-british-steel-industry/

mayonnaise

How UK green taxes killed British Steel.

https://www.imeche.org/news/news-article/carbon-floor-pricing-contributing-to-uk-steel-crisis-says-think-tank

...is calling on the government to scrap Britain’s unilateral Carbon Floor Price, which it said is contributing to the crisis of UK steel and other energy intensive industries.

mayonnaise

Generali wrote: »

Remain remains well clear in latest poll:

Looks like the leave campaign is running out of steam and have decided to put Project Fear into overdrive.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/28/vote-leave-releases-list-of-serious-crimes-by-eu-citizens-in-britain

A dossier of murders and rapes committed by 50 EU criminals in Britain has been published by a leading out campaign, in a move described by critics as “scaremongering of the worst kind”.

Good. The lower they sink, the more it will put off the silent non-bigoted majority. :T