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If we vote for Brexit what happens
Comments
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HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »And how many of them are part of the Single Market for services?
We sell more services to non EU countries than the EU. Which suggests the single market isn't as important as many would have us believe.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
PWC has released research showing Brexit could cause a million job losses in the UK...
https://www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/brexit-will-create-100bn-shock-uk-economy/+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=ukThe analysis pointed to a cost of Britain leaving the EU of as much as £100 billion — about 5 per cent of GDP — by 2020, putting nearly a million jobs at risk.
According to the PwC analysis, even in a scenario where a free-trade agreement with the EU is secured rapidly, there could be a 3 per cent drop in GDP by 2020, while the UK’s unemployment rate could climb two to three percentage points higher than if the UK had remained in the EU.
Ms Fairbairn will say that the best-case scenario is that 550,000 jobs will be lost within four years. Meanwhile, GDP growth between 2017 and 2020 could be “seriously reduced” and possibly be as low as zero in 2017 or 2018.
Even the 'Best Case Scenario, if we got a free trade deal, is over half a million lost jobs.
The Single Market is clearly of vital importance to the UK economy.“The great enemy of the truth is very often not the lie – deliberate, contrived, and dishonest – but the myth, persistent, persuasive, and unrealistic.
Belief in myths allows the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought.”
-- President John F. Kennedy”0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »The Government would have to raise taxes or make deeper spending cuts if immigration to Britain was reduced, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned.
The Treasury’s spending watchdog said cutting inward migration would create “additional fiscal pressures” that would blow George Osborne’s deficit reduction drive off course. The calculations suggest that any significant cut to immigration caused by Brexit would leave Britain facing significant economic problems.
"The OBR is simply pointing out the obvious: since immigrants more than pay for themselves over time, a substantial reduction in immigration will mean either higher taxes or worse public services for the rest of us,”
Some immigration is both necessary and desirable, but not uncontrolled immigration without limits.
I don't believe Greece will become prosperous anytime soon.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »PWC has released research showing Brexit could cause a million job losses in the UK...
www.bmmagazine.co.uk/news/brexit-will-create-100bn-shock-uk-economy/+&cd=8&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=uk
Even the 'Best Case Scenario, if we got a free trade deal, is over half a million lost jobs.
The Single Market is clearly of vital importance to the UK economy.
If we lose 1m jobs then presumably, as they sell us twice as much stuff as we sell them, the EU will lose 2million jobs.
That should concentrate the minds of Merkel and Hollande when we start trade discussions after June 23.If I don't reply to your post,
you're probably on my ignore list.0 -
HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »
99.99% of economist agree that trade is mutually beneficial
Sadly the OBR doesn't point out the obvious facts that immigration is causing a huge backlog of necessary infrastructure which will cost a huge amount of money : neither you nor they choose to include these costs in the balance of costs and benefits of immigration.
Nor do they comment on or care about the 100% certainty of declining living stands for the young in London and the SE.
Any decline in trade and jobs etc that would occur after brexit would be caused solely and only by explicit, malicious action of the EU leaders. They are the people who YOU believe will damage their own children, ignore the views of 99.99% of all economists in the world AND you want them to rule every aspect of your life.0 -
leveller2911 wrote: »
Nice try Bob but the fact remains we (the UK) cannot repeal legislation unless we leave the EU. To change a treaty we need the agreement of 27 other States whom none of us have ever voted for. We need their permission to change a treaty or we leave. We didn't vote for a Greek Govt but they can stop any treaty change that the UK propose.
Thats one hell of a democracy Bob.
The people of Scotland or any of the Labour or UKIP constituencies can use your exact argument to say we don't have democracy within the UK.0 -
If we lose 1m jobs then presumably, as they sell us twice as much stuff as we sell them, the EU will lose 2million jobs.
That should concentrate the minds of Merkel and Hollande when we start trade discussions after June 23.
1m jobs would be 2.5% of our working population, 2m jobs would be 0.5% of the EU's. That should concentrate minds indeed.
Don't blame me, I voted Remain.0 -
mayonnaise wrote: »1m jobs would be 2.5% of our working population, 2m jobs would be 0.5% of the EU's. That should concentrate minds indeed.
trade benefits both parties
so your argument might be a valid argument if you firmly believe that the EU leaders will deliberately do harm to their own children.
one asks why you personally want your laws and rules to be determined by people who would deliberately damage their own children, simply to spite the UK.
one might note, that simply stopping immigration will hold about 1 million increase in population in 4 years, so we will still be short of labour and so can look forward to rising wages rates and improved productivity.0 -
I believe that over 100 countries trade with the EU without a freedom of movement agreement
Very true.
How many of them do so tariff free?
How many of them cover services tariff free?
How many have no non -tariff barriers?
How many include effective mechanisms for resolving bon-tariff barriers?Few people are capable of expressing with equanimity opinions which differ from the prejudices of their social environment. Most people are incapable of forming such opinions.0 -
Very true.
How many of them do so tariff free?
How many of them cover services tariff free?
How many have no non -tariff barriers?
How many include effective mechanisms for resolving bon-tariff barriers?
how many EU countries can trade tariff free with the rest of the world?
over 50% in UK services is already with non - EU countries and rising
over 50% of UK goods trade is with non-EU countries and rising
why do you think tariff free trade is a good thing?
is it because it benefits both parties ?
why do you agree with most of the 'stay' group, that the EU leaders would damage their own children in the event of a brexit by stopping tariff free trade?
do you think that this is right?
do you support these EU leaders anyway?0
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