If we vote for Brexit what happens

HornetSaver

Rinoa wrote: »

Some immigration is both necessary and desirable, but not uncontrolled immigration without limits.

I don't believe Greece will become prosperous anytime soon.

Reading some recent posts, you'd assume that this is as a direct result of the EU is trying to prevent non-EU immigrants from staying there.

The people of Scotland or any of the Labour or UKIP constituencies can use your exact argument to say we don't have democracy within the UK.

Scotland maybe (though the British state discriminates against those not living in Scotland in plenty of ways through the Barnett formula - you win some and you lose some). But in just about every Tory constituency people had the opportunity to vote for their choice of Labour, UKIP or the Lib Dems.

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

1m jobs would be 2.5% of our working population, 2m jobs would be 0.5% of the EU's. That should concentrate minds indeed.

The EU economy is stagnant with high unemployment and many countries in financial difficulties. Not surprisingly our exports to the EU, both goods and services, are decreasing annually.

Meanwhile out trade with the rest of the world, both goods and services, is booming. With the capacity to make our own trade deals and free of EU restrictions the future is bright. The future is Brexit.

BobQ

chewmylegoff wrote: »

EU regulations absolutely cannot be repealed by national parliaments, an EU regulation automatically becomes law in all member states with no implementation required on a national level.

I agree that the UK cannot repeal an EU Regulation but it can legislate that it cannot be enforced in the UK. The EU members would then need to take action under international law. In practice it would be a right mess but could be done.

But that is what you argue below.

Of course whether something is an EU regulation or a law passed in the UK as a consequence of an EU directive, we could just turn a blind eye and not enforce it through our courts. I expect the consequence of that may be action against the UK in the European courts as well.

The point is our Parliament is sovereign but we are bound by international treaties we signed unless we revoke them. Not the done thing these days but in colonial days we did it all the time!

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

I agree that the UK cannot repeal an EU Regulation but it can legislate that it cannot be enforced in the UK. The EU members would then need to take action under international law. In practice it would be a right mess but could be done.

But that is what you argue below.



The point is our Parliament is sovereign but we are bound by international treaties we signed unless we revoke them. Not the done thing these days but in colonial days we did it all the time!

this is fantasy and self delusional

the only effective way of making our own laws is to leave the EU

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

The EU economy is stagnant with high unemployment and many countries in financial difficulties. Not surprisingly our exports to the EU, both goods and services, are decreasing annually.

Services exports are not decreasing annually.

Total UK imports and exports of services to Europe, 2005-2011


(a bit outdated I know, if you have more recent figures, I'd gladly see them)

Rinoa

mayonnaise wrote: »

Services exports are not decreasing annually.

Sorry, I should have made it clear it's our share of exports to the EU which is falling year by year:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11700443/The-EUs-dwindling-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

The EU just isn't as important to us as it was.

cells

Rinoa wrote: »

Sorry, I should have made it clear it's our share of exports to the EU which is falling year by year:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11700443/The-EUs-dwindling-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

The EU just isn't as important to us as it was.

That chart is somewhat meaningless by itself

The steel plant closure in redcar is going to be about $1.5 billion less exports to the far east (all the slab steel was exported afaik). That will show up as more exports as a percentage to europe because we will be exporting less to the rest of the world. looking at the graph would make someone think hey look we just exported more to Europe but the truth would be we exported less to everyone


The uk will likely export more services to the rest of the world as the rest of the world finally develop and get rich enough to buy uk export films advertising accountancy legal and capital management. That does not mean we should stop exporting to europe nor does it mean the importance of europe declines. It could mean we export £100B to europe and £100B elsewhere. If we then export £100B to europe and £200B to elsewhere then the europe exports are just as important before just the same £100B before and after even though on a comparative graph it would look like it went from 50% to 33%

mayonnaise

Rinoa wrote: »

Sorry, I should have made it clear it's our share of exports to the EU which is falling year by year:



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11700443/The-EUs-dwindling-importance-to-UK-trade-in-three-charts.html

The EU just isn't as important to us as it was.

Amazing, how our non-EU trade has flourished while being inside the EU.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Rinoa wrote: »

Sorry, I should have made it clear it's our share of exports to the EU which is falling year by year:

The EU just isn't as important to us as it was.

But it's still incredibly important.

And we are both managing to significantly increase our exports to outside the EU and continuing to export huge quantities of goods and services to the EU.... Today.

So remind me again why we need to leave?

Germany is one of the leading exporters of goods globally yet is in the EU.

The United States is our second biggest export market outside the EU and has stated repeatedly they have no intention of offering us a separate free trade deal if we move outside of the Europe one currently being passed.

And even from the ones that might, it stretches the bounds of credulity to think we'd get better terms as a market of 60m people than the EU can get as a market of 550m people.

antrobus

cells wrote: »

...The steel plant closure in redcar is going to be about $1.5 billion less exports to the far east (all the slab steel was exported afaik). That will show up as more exports as a percentage to europe because we will be exporting less to the rest of the world. looking at the graph would make someone think hey look we just exported more to Europe but the truth would be we exported less to everyone....

Going to? Redcar closed in October. It hasn't been doing anything for almost six months. And yes, most of it's $1.5 billion worth of sales did go to Asia (about $1.3 billion), but then it was importing all the iron ore anyway, and making a cracking loss turning it into slab steel, so I would not have though that it's disappearance has made that much of an impact on the balance of payments.

$1.5 billion is really a drop in the ocean of total UK exports.