If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

The pound has returned to levels against the dollar not seen since last September, in the wake of its post-Brexit vote slump.
Sterling, which has been flirting with the $1.30 level in recent days amid a weakening of the dollar, sped past the milestone as soon as UK retail sales figures for April were released.

They suggested economists' fears about a slump in consumer spending may be overblown as the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported the biggest rise in the value of retail spending in 15 years over the three months to April - up 6.2% on a year earlier.

Sales volumes jumped 2.3% on the month - more than double economists' forecasts - which followed the weakest quarter since 2010 between January and March as consumers seemingly tightened their belts.

The ONS said there was evidence that fine weather had boosted demand in April despite growing pressure on household budgets.

The Bank of England has forecast that business investment and higher export demand should help offset a consumer slowdown.

Howard Archer, chief European and UK economist at IHS Markit, said the unexpectedly high rebound in retail sales boosted UK second quarter growth prospects.
"It buoys hopes that consumer spending will not hamper UK GDP growth as it clearly did in the first quarter," he said.

https://www.mix96.co.uk/news/national/2291651/sterling-above-130-as-retail-sales-net-easter-boost/

kabayiri

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-17/u-k-s-brexit-bill-could-be-as-low-as-6-5-billion-study-says

Surely the bill can be broken down, so that the 2 sides can argue/negotiate over the individual segments.

There's a liability for the EU staff present to support the UK, particularly pensions but maybe severance too. But once we know the numbers it would be hard to claim this runs into billions.

There are some capital projects where we presumably could not wind down our contribution to zero overnight, but they can start planning the alternative financing of those right now. A third of the EU budget has been directed towards social cohesion, and even this is stacked towards certain countries. They could adjust.

There are presumably legal bills on both sides, but I don't remember the European club paying our bills when we joined; we picked up our own costs.

setmefree2

A few days old...

More EU bureaucracy...

Germany's Schaeuble calls for euro zone parliament: La Repubblica

German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble wants to increase in integration of euro zone countries by creating a parliament for the currency bloc.
Schaeuble said in an interview published on Thursday in Italy's La Repubblica that he discussed the idea, which would go hand in hand with his favored plan to create a continental bailout fund, with French President-elect Emanuel Macron.
"We could strengthen the mechanisms," he told the newspaper. "We could create a euro zone parliament made up of members of the European Parliament, which could have consultative powers over the European Stability Mechanism."
German parties are squabbling over how to respond to Macron's proposals for closer European integration, which include a shared budget and finance minister for the bloc.
Macron's plans would require changes to European Union treaties, and Schaeuble said it was "unrealistic" they would get the necessary unanimous approval from all governments, some of whom would hold referendums on it.
But he signaled openness to discuss finding ways to strengthen European integration and reduce reliance on the European Central Bank, which is pumping tens of billions of euros every month into the economy.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-eurozone-future-schaeuble-idUSKBN1871FG

setmefree2

We want less EUROPE! Italian MEP savages Merkel and Macron’s plans for EU integration

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/806220/Brexit-news-Italian-MEP-Angela-Merkel-Emmanuel-Macron-European-Union-integration

setmefree2

kabayiri wrote: »

Surely the bill can be broken down, so that the 2 sides can argue/negotiate over the individual segments.

Using the EU’s 2015 accounts, ICAEW outlined the potential bill due in March 2019 with three potential scenarios - high, low, and a more likely central scenario - once the rebate and money returning to the UK is accounted for.
The institute says its findings suggest potential exit charges range from a low cost of £5bn to a maximum cost of £30bn, with the central scenario cost £15bn (based on an exchange rate of €1.20 to £1) - equivalent to £225 per person expected to be living in the UK in 2019.
Currently the UK’s share of the EU budget each year is approximately £20-£21bn, before an estimated rebate of £5-6bn, and spending returning to the UK of £6-£7bn.

Liabilities include EU staff pension and sickness payments which will be close to £63bn when the UK leaves, and of which the UK’s share is £10bn. This could be a one-off settlement or the UK could agree to contribute £0.2bn a year for the next 50 years or so.
The value of the EU’s fixed assets will also need to be determined.
Additional areas for negotiation include the European Investment Bank (EIB), of which the UK has a 16% share. As ownership of the EIB is restricted to EU members, the UK may need to sell its stake to other EU members, or existing rules may need to change.
The EU is likely to argue that costs incurred caused by the UK’s decision to leave should be paid for by the UK rather than by other member states.

As chartered accountants, we are able to provide an objective view of the numbers which I hope will offer some insight into what the net amount could look like.’Izza said the most contentious element of the costings is likely to be the committed spending for programmes that are included within the current EU financial framework for 2014-2020, much of which goes towards development funding for newer EU members particularly those in Eastern Europe. The negotiation will be around to what extent the UK is obliged to fund programmes that may not be underway or completed when it leaves in March 2019.
ICAEW’s analysis of the different components suggests the exit charge is likely to be much lower than current predictions, which have included a suggestion that the EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier has mentioned a figure of €100bn.

https://www.cchdaily.co.uk/icaew-estimates-likely-brexit-bill-ps15bn

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

Why are Europeans and others in huge number CHOSING still to come to this nasty isle?


I think you have a very downbeat opinion of fair minded Britain. I don't encounter overt racism particularly and certainly not in the way I have in Italy or France.

Really? Well if an English speaking, UKIP supporting middle class white man living in the home counties hasn't encountered discrimination everything must be fine then.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Strange isn't it how - despite all the propaganda, uncertainty and indecision - EU companies still want to buy into the UK?
Why is that, do the negative remainers think?
We're not just talking small beer; this one (turned down so far BTW) is worth over £2 billion.

British laundry services group Berendsen rejected on Thursday a revised, 2 billion pound ($2.6 billion) offer by French peer Elis, saying it did not reflect value being added by the UK firm's expansion and modernization plans.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-berendsen-m-a-elis-idUKKCN18E0KX

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Ikea too see a stronger future in the UK:

Furniture retail giant Ikea is to boost its workforce by creating more than 1,300 new jobs in three new stores.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39953541

It joins firms such as Google, Facebook and Amazon in boosting its UK job numbers since last year's Brexit vote.

kabayiri

"Liabilities include EU staff pension and sickness payments which will be close to £63bn when the UK leaves, and of which the UK’s share is £10bn"

Wow.

If we use UK figures (which are topside) on the number of EU officials [37,000] then this is over £1.7m per head. That's a lot of money considering many roles will be fairly mundane.

sheffield_lad

interesting bit from Tory manifesto,

"We will be lodging new UK schedules with WTO"