If we vote for Brexit what happens

Tromking

gfplux wrote: »

The era of rapidly increasing employment is over, according to the forecasting group EY Item Club, which on Monday predicted the unemployment rate will rise from 4.7% now to 5.4% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.

Will it get anywhere near your beloved France`s current rate of 10%+?

cogito

gfplux wrote: »

It's those pesky experts again.


"British workers should brace themselves for rising unemployment and falling real pay in the year ahead as the impact of a Brexit slowdown is increasingly felt in the jobs market, reports have warned.

The era of rapidly increasing employment is over, according to the forecasting group EY Item Club, which on Monday predicted the unemployment rate will rise from 4.7% now to 5.4% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.

Still less than Luxembourg, then. But then, what do experts know.

Mortgagefreeman

Forget 52%. The rise of the “Re-Leavers” mean the pro-Brexit electorate is 68%

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/05/12/forget-52-rise-re-leavers-mean-pro-brexit-electora/

While the EU referendum result may have ended up 52/48, post-referendum politics have settled into something far less evenly balanced. The rise of the “Re-Leavers” – those who voted to Remain in the EU but think that the government has a duty to leave – mean that the Conservatives are fishing in a massive lake, while the other parties are casting their rods into a pond

Conrad

cogito wrote: »

I suspect you'll find that businesses in the UK are making exactly the same preparations. Remind me. Who buys more from whom?

As ever it's the same story, no need for hysteria, things will even out, we lose some we win some, and lets not forget we will benefit once able to trade globally without EU interference as the worlds number one soft power.


Yes Germany and France trade globally, but none the less the EU exerts a dampening effect on global trade.

kabayiri

cogito wrote: »

I suspect you'll find that businesses in the UK are making exactly the same preparations. Remind me. Who buys more from whom?

The reality is that the world is awash with product now.

Ultimately consumers both here and in the EU can change their buying preferences, and the prevailing mood may have more impact than any problems with red tape.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

It's those pesky experts again.


"British workers should brace themselves for rising unemployment and falling real pay in the year ahead as the impact of a Brexit slowdown is increasingly felt in the jobs market, reports have warned.

The era of rapidly increasing employment is over, according to the forecasting group EY Item Club, which on Monday predicted the unemployment rate will rise from 4.7% now to 5.4% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/15/jobs-market-will-suffer-a-brexit-slowdown-say-ey-item-club-experts?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Facebook

At the same time, UK firms are planning to give workers a pay rise of just 1% over the next 12 months, sharply lower than the rate of inflation, which is 2.3% and expected to rise over coming months."

Hang on.
According to you (and left-wing publications like your link) EU workers will be leaving in droves.
Which means there will be more jobs available.
There has to be if workers leave their jobs en masse.
How then can that possibly equate to more unemployed?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Bad news in the Times today. Whatever spin you put on this it is a setback.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/3234319a-38ca-11e7-8c42-97760aa22c36
"Almost half of European businesses with British suppliers are finding replacements elsewhere in the EU, according to research underlining the threat that Brexit poses to exports.

The Chartered Institute of Procurement and Supply, after surveying more than 2,000 supply chain managers, said that its findings demonstrated that the “separation from Europe is already well under way”.

Bosses are not waiting for the outcome of Article 50 talks before shielding their businesses from the potential impact of tariffs, customs procedures and regulatory hurdles."

It works both ways.

Meanwhile, 32 per cent of UK businesses with continental suppliers are actively looking for alternative British suppliers.

Almost two thirds (65 per cent) of UK businesses have seen their supply chains become more expensive as a result of the weaker pound and more than a quarter (29 per cent) are renegotiating contracts as a result.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4502658/EU-business-preparing-cut-use-UK-suppliers.html

kabayiri

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

...
According to you (and left-wing publications like your link) EU workers will be leaving in droves.
...

Isn't this exactly what FoM proponents want? These Euro workers are able to move elsewhere according to their own economic circumstances.

We have no automatic right to keep them here. At the first sign of more money elsewhere, they would be off.

Mortgagefreeman

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Hang on.
According to you (and left-wing publications like your link) EU workers will be leaving in droves.
Which means there will be more jobs available.
There has to be if workers leave their jobs en masse.
How then can that possibly equate to more unemployed?

I'd say maths isn't his strong subject.

Conrad

Latest figures from YouGov show the Liberal Democrats down two per cent at nine per cent, with the Conservatives at 49 per cent. Liberal Democrats have consistently shown to have lost ground according to ComRes, OpiniumResearch, and ORB International, as well.


University of Kent political scientist Matthew Goodwin estimates the party made a “major strategic blunder” gambling on a “Brexit realignment” going in their favour.