If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

vivatifosi wrote: »

Of course BMW will be doing contingency planning, any company should. BUT...

The company has spent £700m on a state of the art plant in Oxford, 80% of Mini components are from a UK based supply chain and the company's largest overseas market is the USA (trouble posting links today, info from carsalesbase SMMT,and Wikipedia)

You are perfectly correct. The car industry along with many others is a very complex operation with components crossing the Channel multiple times.
To negotiate a trade deal (the second phase after the divorce issues are settled) will take time, perhaps a long time.
A transition period was mentioned by both sides but not recently.
The politicians may come to realise that the negotiations will go beyond the two years but I wonder what the appetite of the public will be for an extension.
We live in interesting times.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

Where were your posts about the many cases of offshoring prior to the referndum, Ford Transit factory for example?

Were these many cases the fault of EU membership?

It must be amazing to live in the EU, no unemployment etc, in which case why do so many EU citizens continue to come to Britain?

Offshoring has always been a relevant subject but Brexit has brought it into greater focus.

No one is disputing the high unemployment figures in many EU Country's.

The present uncertainty is slowing down the number of EU citizens going to Britain to work and speeding up the numbers who are leaving.

gfplux

Conrad wrote: »

So putting on your can-do thoughtful cap, what solutions could you imagine?

I guess one approach is to run to the hills saying this is all too difficult, but other than this approach, what would you do?

I have absolutely no idea.

For goods you may have pre approved shipping agents and hauliers but open to abuse.

Other than that stab at an idea I have nothing.

Perhaps you have some thoughts.

gfplux

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Ah yes - where Ford was given £450m of EU funding to develop production in the UK and £150m of funding to develop production in Turkey - so it invested in the UK by three times as much as the small amount of production it moved.

But never let the facts get in the way of a good anti-EU rant eh Conrad.





All Brits are living in it just now.

And yes - it is pretty amazing - we have low unemployment, high growth, tariff and barrier free trading within the largest single market in the world, and the right to live and work in 27 other countries no questions asked.

Gosh - shame we're leaving all that behind....

Great riposte, I wish I had written it.

gfplux

LHW99 wrote: »

While not minimising the issues over the Irish border, is there not a land border between the EU and Gibraltar, which I believe will leave alongside the UK in 2019 (or whenever?

Quite correct. Often overlooked and will a be a complex situation. It is not in the headlines as Death and destruction is not a present and continuous danger. Perhaps Gibraltar and its residents will be sacrificed by PM May in some sort of trade off.

vivatifosi

gfplux wrote: »

Quite correct. Often overlooked and will a be a complex situation. It is not in the headlines as Death and destruction is not a present and continuous danger. Perhaps Gibraltar and its residents will be sacrificed by PM May in some sort of trade off.

May will not throw Gibraltar under the bus. It will be hugely undemocratic to do so, as well as opening up cans of worms elsewhere, such as the Falklands.

As for Ireland, it should not matter what side of the EU debate anyone is on, a peaceful and stable Northern Ireland has to be the priority. Thankfully we have the first generation of young adults emerging who did not live through the troubles. Both sides need to do everything in their power to ensure that continues.

Rinoa

It's been mentioned before but worth another airing.

On Tuesday the ECJ rules on whether the EU Commission has the sole authority to ratify trade deals, or whether each member's parliament has the right of veto.

It's expected they will choose the latter, which will make negotiating an acceptable deal highly unlikely.

Which is a :j from me.

mayonnaise

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Remind us again of the youth unemployment rate across the EU? How long do you think the disenfranchised will remain silent and not rise up in protest to express a voice.

Official unemployment rates, especially in Southern Europe, can be taken with a massive pinch of salt. Cash in hand is the norm.

Rinoa wrote: »

It's been mentioned before but worth another airing.

On Tuesday the ECJ rules on whether the EU Commission has the sole authority to ratify trade deals, or whether each member's parliament has the right of veto.

It's expected they will choose the latter, which will make negotiating an acceptable deal highly unlikely.

Which is a :j from me.

I hope you're right.
An acceptable deal, or some half in-half out option, would leave the brexiteers with an easy option to blame all our coming economic woes on the 'half-in' bit.
We need a full, clean break.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

The present uncertainty is slowing down the number of EU citizens going to Britain to work and speeding up the numbers who are leaving.

Evidence?
Not propagandist media tales; evidence?
Statistics?
Because that is not what statistics tell us so far.

Gov dot uk is always slow but here is what the latest release, to December 2016 says:

There were 56,058 Tier 2 Skilled work sponsored visa applications in 2016 similar to the level in 2015 (56,012). This included a 49% increase (1,748 more visas) in the Human health and social work activities sector, which is largely likely to reflect the addition of nurses to the government’s shortage occupation list in November 2015.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/immigration-statistics-october-to-december-2016/summary

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Great riposte, I wish I had written it.

Why?
Because it was immediately debunked, like most of your posts?

See the following after your linked but especially #20049