If we vote for Brexit what happens

Moby

While Germany grows, Britain faces pay squeeze..... Angela Monaghan Following a fresh warning on living standards from the Bank of England on Thursday, two leading economists have warned this morning that Britons will all be poorer over the next five years as Brexit delivers a blow to the economy. Andrew Lilico, executive director of Europe Economics, said that Britain will probably lose out on a year’s worth of growth over the next few years, before expanding at a faster pace in the 2020s. Lilico told BBC Radio 4’ Today programme: Few things in life involving major changes come cost free so I think we should expect to lose a couple of percentage points of GDP growth - the equivalent of one year’s growth over the period of 2019/2020. Then in the 2020s I expect it to grow a little bit faster and by 2030 everything will have come out in the wash.” Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, agreed that UK households would be worse off over the next five years but was less optimistic about a swift turnaround in fortunes thereafter. The real effect of Brexit won’t happen until Brexit happens. I’m optimistic that Britain can secure a free trade agreement with Europe, but it will take at least 10 years. “If there are no smooth arrangements we’re going to see a sharp decrease in investment and therefore a sharp decrease in jobs and that will mean a much more serious reduction in household incomes.”

Conrad

Moby wrote: »

While Germany grows, Britain faces pay squeeze..... Angela Monaghan Following a fresh warning on living standards from the Bank of England on Thursday, two leading economists have warned this morning that Britons will all be poorer over the next five years as Brexit delivers a blow to the economy. Andrew Lilico, executive director of Europe Economics, said that Britain will probably lose out on a year’s worth of growth over the next few years, before expanding at a faster pace in the 2020s. Lilico told BBC Radio 4’ Today programme: Few things in life involving major changes come cost free so I think we should expect to lose a couple of percentage points of GDP growth - the equivalent of one year’s growth over the period of 2019/2020. Then in the 2020s I expect it to grow a little bit faster and by 2030 everything will have come out in the wash.” Ngaire Woods, dean of the Blavatnik School of Government at Oxford University, agreed that UK households would be worse off over the next five years but was less optimistic about a swift turnaround in fortunes thereafter. The real effect of Brexit won’t happen until Brexit happens. I’m optimistic that Britain can secure a free trade agreement with Europe, but it will take at least 10 years. “If there are no smooth arrangements we’re going to see a sharp decrease in investment and therefore a sharp decrease in jobs and that will mean a much more serious reduction in household incomes.”

I could post up dozens of German economy warning articles from the last year.

Here's a new one;

Germany’s ‘powerhouse’ economy is cracking and investors need to be wary, economist warns

Silvia Amaro | @Silvia_Amaro
Thursday, 9 Mar 2017 | 4:22 AM ET


"The crack in Germany's economy has become most evident in consumer spending. Retail sales volumes have slowed consistently since growth rates peaked in mid-2015. They have crashed in the last six monthly reports," Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, said in a note earlier this week.


Hard data shows that Germany's economy has been facing problems for at least the past six months, despite an uptick in growth at the end of last

mystic_trev

British voters are becoming more confident that Prime Minister Theresa May will secure the right deal on Brexit in talks with 27 other members of the European Union, according to an ORB poll published on Friday.

Negotiators from both sides are preparing to begin formal Brexit talks after Britain's June 8 snap national election, nearly a year since Britons voted by 52-48 percent in a referendum to leave the club it joined in 1973.

"British voters seem increasingly confident that May is going to pull off the right deal despite the might of the EU," said Johnny Heald, managing director of ORB International.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKBN18814L

Arklight

A British student studying in Paris has been told that getting a job with European Union (EU) institutions will be “out of the question” after Brexit...


...She was told that while technically it would be possible for her to pursue a career in Brussels prior to the UK's departure from the 27 nation bloc, it would "not be worth the effort" because there would be "no future" for her as a British citizen post-Brexit even if she obtained her Masters.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/british-student-told-eu-careers-134200622.html


Another door slams shut in a British young person's face thanks to Brexit and it's knuckle dragging supporters. If only the government had hidden pro Europe information inside tubes of Pringles. The result would have been so different.

Conrad

Arklight wrote: »

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/british-student-told-eu-careers-134200622.html


Another door slams shut in a British young person's face thanks to Brexit and it's knuckle dragging supporters. If only the government had hidden pro Europe information inside tubes of Pringles. The result would have been so different.

You want to remain part of a club that apparently will not take on a British worker? If this were in reverse you would be calling for British heads to roll for such an attitude towards a prospective French employee.


Trust you guys to always bat for the other team

Mortgagefreeman

Arklight wrote: »

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/british-student-told-eu-careers-134200622.html


Another door slams shut in a British young person's face thanks to Brexit and it's knuckle dragging supporters. If only the government had hidden pro Europe information inside tubes of Pringles. The result would have been so different.

Her own stupidity, she should have chosen a different course.

Ms Roebuck, who is the only British student on her course, said that while her mainly French and European classmates found the careers event positive and helpful, she was left feeling "separate and angry", adding that there was a general anti-British sentiment in both Brussels and Paris.

I expect she'll be much happier when she's able to tuck into a pot noodle,on her return to the UK.:D

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

You want to remain part of a club that apparently will not take on a British worker? If this were in reverse you would be calling for British heads to role for such an attitude towards a French would be employee.


Trust your guys to always bat for the other team

Whereas your government is threatening to name and shame companies that hire foreign employees, has ordered Pret A Manger to stop hiring EU staff, is leaving EU citizens in fearful limbo as "bargaining chips" and otherwise has not shown one ounce of accountability for the human cost of their populist xenophobic dog whistle politics.

kabayiri

Conrad wrote: »

You want to remain part of a club that apparently will not take on a British worker? If this were in reverse you would be calling for British heads to role for such an attitude towards a French would be employee.


Trust your guys to always bat for the other team

She graduates in 2018, and as far as I understand it, we are still paying membership fees to the EU in 2018.

This should bring about the employment opportunities of a full market, just the same as a German engineering graduate (eg) who wanted to work in somewhere like Manchester.

We would be taken to task for stopping thousands of EU citizens working here before Brexit completes.

Mortgagefreeman

gfplux wrote: »

Can you imagine the chaos if at midnight of referendum day it is announced we are leaving the EU.

Nearly a year on from the BREXIT vote, 1,000 pages with nearly 20,000 posts yet we still await the chaos.

Still from Aberdeen to Luxembourg, we're still being told 'it's just around the corner' The doom and gloom, glass half filled remoaners, just don't get it. Yes, they'll be some rocky times ahead, but Great Britain future will become Greater Britain. Let's celebrate the future. :beer::j:money:

Ballard

We await the chaos from Brexit. Perhaps it will come but hopefully it will never materialise and the UK will remain united and will surge ahead. I've made it very clear that I have grave doubts. My question is, if we do end up worse off financially in a few years time who will the Brexiteers blame? Would it be the easy target of the remainers? Would it be the EU? Would it be our government? My hunch is that it would be whoever The Daily Mail tell them is at fault.