If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Barnier keeps repeating his agenda for the negotiations.
http://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/barnier-says-brexit-will-come-at-a-cost-but-we-are-where-we-are-1.3079612
"“I also made very clear that the border issue would be one of my three priorities for the first phase of the negotiations, together with citizens’ rights and the financial settlement,’’ he added."

So we really don't need to keep asking what MP May will be talking about as the above will be the first three points on the Agenda of phase one, "the divorce"
Just worry that those three will take forever to agree.

It will be a long, long time before they will be able to move on to PHASE 2 the (free trade blah blah) trading relationship AFTER Britain leaves the EU.

Barnier may negotiate.
But is the final say his?
Does Barnier have a vote in EU Parliament when Brexit discussions are (that is if they ever are) finalised?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Brexit slowdown, never?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/may/11/brexit-industrial-output-trade-deficit-march0ons?CMP=share_btn_fb

Industrial output shrank more than expected and the trade deficit widened in March in the latest signs that uncertainty surrounding Brexit is beginning to weigh on the economy.

Industrial output dropped by 0.5% in March, sharper than the 0.3% fall predicted by economists. It followed a 0.7% fall in February and brought the sector to a virtual standstill in the first quarter overall, with growth of just 0.1%, according to the Office for National Statistics figures.

Production was dragged lower as warmer-than-average temperatures led to a 4.2% fall in energy supply, and manufacturing also fell unexpectedly by 0.6%.

Economists said the weak data made it unlikely that the ONS would revise up its first estimate of growth for the first quarter overall, when the economy grew by a weaker-than-expected 0.3%.

That was March.
The beginning of the year is often slower, see past records.
Then see this for April:

Activity in the UK's service sector accelerated in April, with new work growing at its fastest pace this year

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-39802976

The monthly survey of construction purchasing managers indicates that April data saw the strongest rise in new work so far this year

http://www.theconstructionindex.co.uk/news/view/construction-growth-edges-up-again-in-april

his year's late Easter turbo-charged April UK retail sales, with strong food sales leading to total sales value growing at the fastest pace for six years

https://mninews.marketnews.com/content/uk-april-retail-sales-growth-fastest-april-2011-brc

More failed woe, doom & gloom from gfplux then.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

Mark Carney always has a lot to say but is often reported to have said two different things.
This is the BBC version.
"Bank of England governor Mark Carney has warned of a consumer spending squeeze this year as inflation rises and real wages fall.
This year will be "a more challenging time for British households" and "wages won't keep up with prices", he said.
He was upbeat about wage growth beyond 2017 - but only if the government secures a "smooth" exit from the EU.
It came as the bank trimmed UK economic growth forecasts for 2017 from 2% to 1.9% and held interest rates at 0.25%.
The bank, unveiling its Quarterly Inflation Report, also raised its forecast for inflation this year to 2.7% from its February forecast of 2.4%."

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39880844

I am sure someone will come up with a news report that says he says the opposite

Ah, Mark Carney:

Why does Bank of England boss Mark Carney keep getting it SO wrong?

And yesterday the governor was forced to admit he was far too gloomy about the outlook for the UK following the Brexit vote.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3902630/Why-does-Bank-boss-Mark-Carney-getting-wrong.html

kabayiri

Barnier's visit to Ireland is interesting.

Clearly, he needs to show some support, because Ireland has some genuine trading concerns and also the fact that the border is an issue.

He has to say that Brexit won't be "cost free", but beyond that, what assurances can he offer?

I notice that states like Denmark are adamant that Brexit should not be a trigger for more money to go the EU, and yet you could argue they need to support vulnerable states through the transition.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

I just wanted to add this to my earlier post.
Of the first three items to be tackled first the Times suggest the "money" issue could be the easiest of the three.
Here is a link to the Times analysis of the "money" which I find quite logical and clear. Both side just have to horse trade to a final figure they can live with.
The other two issues are VERY COMPLEX and could take a lot of talking and much minute detail.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/breaking-down-britains-eu-divorce-bill-who-owes-what-and-why-9xb28z7mt?CMP=TNLEmail_118918_1845141

This is what the Times says in its daily Brexit email.
"he bottom line is this: the very upper end of the UK liabilities is likely to be €65 billion and it could come in as low as €25 billion. A senior commission figure told the Briefing yesterday that they thought that the true bill would come in at between €30 billion and €40 billion. And this is the really interesting part."

It is also suggested that the get out of jail Political card could be ARBITRATION.

You're more than a little late with that, this surfaced a few days after your linked report:

European Commission lawyers have reportedly admitted that the €100billion Brexit bill is ‘legally impossible’ to enforce.

http://metro.co.uk/2017/05/07/even-eu-lawyers-say-e100bn-brexit-bill-is-legally-impossible-to-enforce-6621018/

We suspected this back in March:

Legal advice given to the Government states there is no law or treaty compelling Britain to make payments to Brussels after it leaves the EU

https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/83899/uk-not-legally-obliged-pay-eu-exit-bill-peers-say

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Brexit slowdown, never?

It rained today. Was that a side effect of Brexit too?

Thrugelmir

CKhalvashi wrote: »

On a smaller level, we are still in 2 minds regarding whether to expand a U.K. circuit or not.

Spending squeezes are our main concern, and while that may work in our favour in the short term, the sheer cost of it may make it not worth the risk overall.

I posted at the tail end of last year that it was causing arguments, and it still is, for exactly the same reason.

Austerity isn't going away any time soon. As a business you need to take the long term view and be better than your competitors.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Clearly, he needs to show some support, because Ireland has some genuine trading concerns and also the fact that the border is an issue.

As chief negotiator he needs to spin a lot of plates to keep all parties in line. There's the Apple tax case to be resolved still. Which must be playing in the back of his mind.

gfplux

I post this article from the New York Times with no comment other that this wonderful quote.

"“It just made perfect sense to focus everything in a U.K. entity,” Mr. Kemp says. “Now, we are looking at unwinding that ball of string that we’ve worked so hard to put together over the last 20 years.”"

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/11/business/dealbook/brexit-uk-london-banking.html?smid=fb-nytimes&smtyp=cur&_r=0

It also has a great photo of the escalators at Canary Wharf

gfplux

gfplux wrote: »

I just wanted to add this to my earlier post.
Of the first three items to be tackled first the Times suggest the "money" issue could be the easiest of the three.
Here is a link to the Times analysis of the "money" which I find quite logical and clear. Both side just have to horse trade to a final figure they can live with.
The other two issues are VERY COMPLEX and could take a lot of talking and much minute detail.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/breaking-down-britains-eu-divorce-bill-who-owes-what-and-why-9xb28z7mt?CMP=TNLEmail_118918_1845141

This is what the Times says in its daily Brexit email.
"he bottom line is this: the very upper end of the UK liabilities is likely to be €65 billion and it could come in as low as €25 billion. A senior commission figure told the Briefing yesterday that they thought that the true bill would come in at between €30 billion and €40 billion. And this is the really interesting part."

It is also suggested that the get out of jail Political card could be ARBITRATION.

Such is the life of a keyboard warrior in his darkened room that he will shoot from the hip without reading a link.
The above is a reasoned and balanced view from the Times of the "bill"
It is not partisan. I posted it so that we could all understand better why the money may be owed and how the matter might be resolved.