If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

CKhalvashi wrote: »

So what about the Conservatives who have added more to the debt in the last 7 years than all the previous governments combined, while telling us the debt is going down constantly?

Would be far worse under Labour mismanagement


Their answer to everything is more spending - the laziest 'easy' politics of them all

setmefree2

kabayiri wrote: »

I have no doubt that if it were Merkel and not Cameron, who last year went for reforms, then the deal offered to her would be much sweeter. This is because the club is not only protectionist, it is stacked towards those with economic power.

This can only get worse. When we joined in 1973 Germany was half the size - then the newly unified Germany was hampered by unification of the East into the West - now it's firing on all cylinders - and its centre of Gravity is destroying all in its path...

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

...
Someone else who voted for Brexit has suggested they did so in the hope expensive EU workers would be repatriated and replaced by cheaper (and more likely darker and non-Christian) third country workers on short term work visas.
...

This is what UK and others in the West did throughout the '90s and beyond.

It just so happens that these 'darker and non-Christian' people were located elsewhere, nothing more.

I don't remember the outcries from the dinner class elite about the loss of quality IT or call centre jobs from our shores at the time. Juncker seemed to be surprisingly sanguine about it. Perhaps they really didn't care, as long as the credit card was 0% .

Yeah, let's face it. We are all hypocrites. It's fine as long as it's not *my* job. I don't remember outsourcing too many high court judges to Poland, or marketing consultants to Taiwan.

It's just temporary anyway. Mr Aldi or Madame Iceland will be perfectly happy to have robo209 pick your fruit and veg in years to come. What will good old Juncker do? Nothing, that's what.

When I look at Cherie Blair, I'm left with the feeling they have already automated some of our legal bods!

mrginge

I was wondering when the 'I demand to know everything' routine would make a comeback.

kabayiri

CKhalvashi wrote: »

In fairness, I buy a lot of clothes from charity shops, and recycle my wardrobe every year or so.

It's easy to get designer suits etc for not a lot of money, and everything I buy goes to help charity twice with this system.

Today, I'm wearing designer jeans/shirt from one of the charity shops I mentioned above, with a Next hooded zip top fleece thing I bought a few years ago; professional enough for what I need to do today, yet comfortable and right for the weather. No known exploitation here.

You forgot to list your telly(s); smartphone; tablet; laptop; hifi; coffee maker; door bell; security camera; microwave; kettle; toaster;...

cogito

CKhalvashi wrote: »

So what about the Conservatives who have added more to the debt in the last 7 years than all the previous governments combined, while telling us the debt is going down constantly?

Wrong again. It's the deficit that's going down, not the debt.

CKhalvashi

cogito wrote: »

Wrong again. It's the deficit that's going down, not the debt.

I'm aware of that, however that's not what was being told.

February 2013: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/02/cameron-rebuked-uk-statistics-authority-over-debt-lies

October 2014:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-criticised-dodgy-debt-4374387

This is what I'm referring to, however I'm assuming you knew that, just wanted to tell me I'm wrong when we both know I'm not.

I stand by what I said though, the Conservative-led government of 2010-2015 and Conservative government since 2015 have added more to the national debt in 7 years than all other governments have combined. I see you don't dispute that as fact.

cogito

CKhalvashi wrote: »

I'm aware of that, however that's not what was being told.

February 2013: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2013/02/cameron-rebuked-uk-statistics-authority-over-debt-lies

October 2014:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/david-cameron-criticised-dodgy-debt-4374387

This is what I'm referring to, however I'm assuming you knew that, just wanted to tell me I'm wrong when we both know I'm not.

I stand by what I said though, the Conservative-led government of 2010-2015 and Conservative government since 2015 have added more to the national debt in 7 years than all other governments have combined. I see you don't dispute that as fact.

No, I don't dispute that at all but I attach details of budget deficits for the past years. Do you notice what happened before 2010 and what has been happening since then?
http://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_national_deficit_analysis

mayonnaise

Brexit Bulletin: Changing Economic Fortunes

Once plagued by Greece’s fiscal crisis and a populist uprising, European Central Bank President Draghi now oversees an accelerating euro-area economy where political risks are subsiding. By contrast, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney sees signs that Brexit is slowing the British economy.

An irony is that some Britons who campaigned for Brexit argued it was necessary to break away from a failing economy. Now the International Monetary Fund is predicting the euro-area will outpace the U.K. in 2018 for the first time since 2010

Back to being the sick man of Europe.
Never mind.
We took back control.
Yeah.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-10/brexit-bulletin-changing-economic-fortunes

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Why is Holland worried about its 9% of its total exports to the UK then? You've been given other examples here of Europeans worried about trade barriers.

Because it's going to suck for them, as we've agreed on for at least a dozen pages.

You seem to think they will erect barriers to our exports and we won't reply in kind.

No I think they'll give us a couple of options, we'll refuse them all, and we'll end up going WTO rather than conceding anything. Any barriers will be entirely of our own doing.

Paint a picture of reality for me right down at trench level. How will French farmers take to being told they are about to have thier exports to the UK put at risk? According to your side they will shrug shoulders and proclaim it's all for the good of some abstract lofty principle.

As we're still agreed on; it'll be bad for them. However, they've still got a customs union with a huge market they can access by land, and can refocus across that, taking a smallish hit in the short term.

Take Holland with 9% exports going to us, assume that halfs, and they are down 4.5% exports. That's still bad, but it's not likely to plunge them into the dark ages. It'll depress prices and they can hopefully use that to shift some trade to the other EU26.
They can also push for a deal which benefits Holland (bacon & flowers?), say, tariff free trade on all food & plants, but tariffs on electronics, services, etc.

Take us, with 45% exports. If that halves, we're down by 22.5% which will utterly crush us. We can try to redirect some of it with reduced prices, but it'd need to go long distances overseas (nearest customers being North Africa or North America), which means a lot of cost and latency, and may be impossible for some things (anything time sensitive) or have no market (like car manufacturing or financial services).

I'll say for the last time; a bad deal will hurt everyone in the Eurozone, and us. But the effect is literally an order of magnitude worse for us. Being able to grow our own plums or buy tomatos from Morocco will barely even be shuffling deck chairs on a sinking ship.