If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

dalehitchy wrote: »

Oh I'm sick of this crap now. Enough is enough of blaming Gernany and France for all of this countries woes. Please elaborate specifically on what Germany and France have done to dictate that 45% of our exports go to them? Or is it just more lies and rhetoric?

Because. Last time I checked, the EU has the more trade deals than anywhere else, that includes the EU 27 and numerous none EU countries like China, Canada etc. So tell me.... Why cant we trade more with aalllllllllll the other countries it has in place. Did the big bad Germany and France turn to us and say "trade with us only or else"

Have you been burying your head in the sand regarding the EU and it's protectionism?
A read of this will gently point you in the right direction:

Now turn to the situation where the UK, a small country, is dealing with a large country or bloc like the EU. Here the offer of a preferential agreement requires different analysis because the bloc absorbs so much of your output that this dominates the market price. Within the EU agricultural and manufacturing prices are raised about 20pc above world prices by EU protection; this means we can sell into these markets at these higher prices because world competition cannot undercut us. Sound good?! But the catch is that our consumers and unprotected producers pay for this through the higher prices. This causes net costs to the economy from lower consumer welfare and reallocation of resources to industries where we are the least efficient.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/06/britain-must-ditch-its-protectionist-eu-trade-agreement/

This from 2012 may help too, entitled "Creeping protectionism in EU trade policy" :
https://www.odi.org/news/604-eu-trade-policy-international-development-global-challenges

But there are many examples besides trade.
Consider Juncker's (alleged) recent after-dinner phone call; who was that too again?

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

It would be unusual if the Tories didn't include a pledge in their manifesto to reduce immigration.

This would be the third time then. Third time they include a measurable figure which can be used by the right wing to prove they have failed.

...and we wonder why the right have gained traction.

prosaver

they need the deal more than us..




The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 percent higher than the German trade surplus with France, Berlin's largest European trade partner.
With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest export market, after the U.S. and France.
Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course it won't.
No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., while reassuring her compatriots that she would negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great attention to German interests.

ref
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/nevermind-the-brexit-uk-will-emerge-with-a-good-trade-deal.html

Merkel now has her poker face on, pretending shes not bothered

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

The EU has mentioned the price we will have to pay for Brexit as 50 billion Euro, but recently it mysteriously jumped to 100 billion Euro.

They are just as guilty of raising the stakes and the heat, as May is when she says we can walk away with paying nothing.

If this process becomes so bad tempered the EU and UK consumers themselves will ensure that trade is harmed.

It's megaphone negotiations from both sides for now. Is anyone really riled up enough to stop buying BMW's etc? I'm not.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

...
She seems woefully unprepared to deal with the EU.

Honestly, May and the Tories keep on surprising me.

I didn't expect the GE announcement.

I didn't expect the legal proclamation that we don't have to pay a bean.

I don't feel well placed to predict how they will respond to the next stage of negotiations.

Herzlos

prosaver wrote: »

they need the deal more than us..

I disagree. Some EU companies need us more than we need them, but on the whole? They are 45% of our market, and we are 2% of theirs. Which number is bigger?

The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 percent higher than the German trade surplus with France, Berlin's largest European trade partner.
With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest export market, after the U.S. and France.
Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course it won't.
No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., while reassuring her compatriots that she would negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great attention to German interests.

ref
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/nevermind-the-brexit-uk-will-emerge-with-a-good-trade-deal.html

Merkel now has her poker face on, pretending shes not bothered

1. The EU is our biggest export customer, we're Germanys 3rd biggest.

2. Do you really think that Brits will suddenly stop buying German cars (BMW, Audi, Merc, VW)? Since they are all "premium and the cost is generally hidden in PCPs now, I don't think it'll hurt demand that much. Maybe a <10% drop in sales.

3. Germany could certainly encourage a trade deal that allows tariff free trade of completed cars from UK<->EU in order to maintain their car sales, whilst still hurting us pretty badly.

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

It's megaphone negotiations from both sides for now. Is anyone really riled up enough to stop buying BMW's etc? I'm not.

Well, we have a mid-range BMW and the sales guy tells us the natural replacement is now beyond £40K.

It wouldn't take much for us to look at Korean or JLR cars.

Can I see the UK press winding up the public if things go sour?

Hmm, let me think about that !

WengerIn

prosaver wrote: »

they need the deal more than us..




The U.K. is by far Germany's most profitable export market. Last year, Germany's trade surplus with the U.K. came in at 51 billion euros ($56 billion), accounting for 34 percent of the German surplus with the EU. That surplus was also 42 percent higher than the German trade surplus with France, Berlin's largest European trade partner.
With its 89.3 billion euro worth of exports to the U.K. last year, Britain is Germany's third-largest export market, after the U.S. and France.
Will Germany give this up by shutting the U.K. out of a free-trade agreement with the EU? Of course it won't.
No wonder that Chancellor Merkel keeps saying that there is no need to be "nasty" with the U.K., while reassuring her compatriots that she would negotiate the U.K.'s exit from the EU with a great attention to German interests.

ref
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/nevermind-the-brexit-uk-will-emerge-with-a-good-trade-deal.html

Merkel now has her poker face on, pretending shes not bothered

Hmm. German GDP is $3.4tn. $56bn is 1.6%. Germany could wipe out its entire surplus with the UK and not even face a fall in GDP over the course of the year.

It's the negotiation problem May faces: the UK market is insignificant to the EU member states and the EU is material or even existential to the UK economy. !!!!!!, we can't even feed ourselves.

Honey_Badger

Herzlos wrote: »

I disagree. Some EU companies need us more than we need them, but on the whole? They are 45% of our market, and we are 2% of theirs. Which number is bigger?

Where do you get the above figures from? According to Fullfact the percentages are rather different.

https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/

The value of that trade to the UK and other EU countries’ economies—exports to the rest of the EU are worth about 13% of the UK’s economy, and exports from other EU countries to the UK are worth about 3-4% of the value of those countries’ economies taken as a whole.

prosaver

Herzlos wrote: »

I disagree. Some EU companies need us more than we need them, but on the whole? They are 45% of our market, and we are 2% of theirs. Which number is bigger?





1. The EU is our biggest export customer, we're Germanys 3rd biggest.
that's a twist on facts.
it not about 3rd and 1st,,
or merkel wouldn't of been creeping round the UK


2. Do you really think that Brits will suddenly stop buying German cars (BMW, Audi, Merc, VW)? Since they are all "premium and the cost is generally hidden in PCPs now, I don't think it'll hurt demand that much. Maybe a <10% drop in sales.

3. Germany could certainly encourage a trade deal that allows tariff free trade of completed cars from UK<->EU in order to maintain their car sales, whilst still hurting us pretty badly.

we wouldn't accept it and walk away.
soon as everyone finds out what the Germans are doing, are people going to really buy German products, supporting German jobs while ours go down the pan..


[I think the remainers would tho, ]