If we vote for Brexit what happens

Enterprise_1701C

The only reason that Germany and France are 45% of our export market at the moment is that they dictate the terms when we try to export elsewhere.

When we strike out on our own and find new markets then this may well change.

Enterprise_1701C

Herzlos wrote: »

How dare they start negotiations by stating the bleeding obvious.

Everyone knows May is bluffing when she's talking about walking away without a deal, and all it's doing is getting peoples backs up.

I sincerely hope she is not bluffing.

You do not sell your car by saying to the person that is coming to look at it that you have to sell it and therefore will be forced to take any offer they make.

They say we cannot cherry pick, but they got very upset when we threatened to withdraw security cooperation. Maybe we should turn around and tell them they cannot cherry pick.

gfplux

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The only reason that Germany and France are 45% of our export market at the moment is that they dictate the terms when we try to export elsewhere.

When we strike out on our own and find new markets then this may well change.

"Hang on you can't say when we strike out on our own"
Having struck out on our own 10 months ago aided by a 15/20% weaker currency this must by now be bearing fruit.

dalehitchy

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

The only reason that Germany and France are 45% of our export market at the moment is that they dictate the terms when we try to export elsewhere.

When we strike out on our own and find new markets then this may well change.

Oh I'm sick of this crap now. Enough is enough of blaming Gernany and France for all of this countries woes. Please elaborate specifically on what Germany and France have done to dictate that 45% of our exports go to them? Or is it just more lies and rhetoric?

Because. Last time I checked, the EU has the more trade deals than anywhere else, that includes the EU 27 and numerous none EU countries like China, Canada etc. So tell me.... Why cant we trade more with aalllllllllll the other countries it has in place. Did the big bad Germany and France turn to us and say "trade with us only or else"

Herzlos

Enterprise_1701C wrote: »

I sincerely hope she is not bluffing.

She absolutely is bluffing and everyone knows it. She'll never walk away with no deal, it'd be economic and political suicide (once the economic suicide sinks in).

You do not sell your car by saying to the person that is coming to look at it that you have to sell it and therefore will be forced to take any offer they make.

But we're not trying to buy a car from the EU, where there are hundreds of other options. We're trying to form a trading relationship with our nearest neighbors. We can't change who our neighbours are, or the fact they are the easiest (politically and logistically) to trade with.

Everyone knows what no deal means, and that's a huge increase in tariffs, export costs, and customs delays. Sure we'll be able to sell to places that don't have an EU agreement, but we can already do that on WTO terms.

wotsthat

Herzlos wrote: »

She absolutely is bluffing and everyone knows it. She'll never walk away with no deal, it'd be economic and political suicide (once the economic suicide sinks in).

I think you're right - there will be a deal.

However, it seems almost impossible that, as well as extricating ourselves from the EU, a trade deal can be completed by March 2019.

I wonder if we're being setup for transitional arrangements which would be unpalatable to the average Brexiter hence the desire for a snap election to 'buy' a couple of extra years to get through the transitional phase.

When the manifesto eventually comes out it'll be interesting to see the wording around immigration and the ECJ.

kabayiri

Herzlos wrote: »

She absolutely is bluffing and everyone knows it. She'll never walk away with no deal, it'd be economic and political suicide (once the economic suicide sinks in).
...

Why is she planning to repeat a manifesto commitment to limiting immigration then?

You and I know full well that this commitment is incompatible with the core principles of the EU.

Every action PM May has done in the last few months points to her trying to build up support from the voters in case the unthinkable happens.

She will use a rabid press only too happy to paint people like Juncker as Demonic, and the stupid thing is that he plays into their hands with his untimely comments about English language.

You do recognize when someone is preparing for a fight don't you?

kabayiri

wotsthat wrote: »

I think you're right - there will be a deal.
...

The EU has mentioned the price we will have to pay for Brexit as 50 billion Euro, but recently it mysteriously jumped to 100 billion Euro.

They are just as guilty of raising the stakes and the heat, as May is when she says we can walk away with paying nothing.

If this process becomes so bad tempered the EU and UK consumers themselves will ensure that trade is harmed.

wotsthat

kabayiri wrote: »

Why is she planning to repeat a manifesto commitment to limiting immigration then?

You and I know full well that this commitment is incompatible with the core principles of the EU.

It would be unusual if the Tories didn't include a pledge in their manifesto to reduce immigration.

Herzlos

kabayiri wrote: »

Why is she planning to repeat a manifesto commitment to limiting immigration then?

The one that everyone knows is impossible? It's just another "brexit is brexit" soundbite to keep the UKIP voters happy.

You and I know full well that this commitment is incompatible with the core principles of the EU.

Indeed, it's impossible. But I'm sure she knows that. I suspect it's just so she can say that she tried, but the evil EU wouldn't compromise.

Every action PM May has done in the last few months points to her trying to build up support from the voters in case the unthinkable happens.

Yup.

You do recognize when someone is preparing for a fight don't you?

I don't think she's preparing for a fight, with the EU at least. She seems to be preparing to try and keep her job by boosting her majority and deflecting the blame.

She seems woefully unprepared to deal with the EU.