If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

Interestingly this very thing came out yesterday on LBC - a good number of committed Remainers were contacting the show saying how the EU's leaking of a private dinner conversation has instantly turned them into fuming Brexiteers.

Can't wait to get out now.....

....we should join NAFTA and sign up to TPP....

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

The likes of Junker have not yet imagined just how rough it will get once ordinary non political citizens suddenly realise their livelihoods are going to be put at stake by Brussels deliberately imposing sales barriers.



Citizens wont take kindly to bloated Brussels elites harming their livelihoods. This is my take home message.

You could comfortably replace Junker with May and Brussels with Westminster in the above.

Mays going to have a hell of a time once the population discover how much they're getting shafted.

Tromking

Conrad wrote: »

The likes of Junker have not yet imagined just how rough it will get once ordinary non political citizens suddenly realise their livelihoods are going to be put at stake by Brussels deliberately imposing sales barriers.
Citizens wont take kindly to bloated Brussels elites harming their livelihoods. This is my take home message.

I think the jury is out on that one.
If the EU can make their narrative stick that the UK is delusional and acting totally unreasonably in its expectations, then maybe they won't blame the EU or the 27 if it becomes harmful to their own EU citizens.
It will be interesting though to see the vote maybe in the EU Parliament, where MEP`s at the behest of Juncker's EU Commission will be expected to vote for a motion that puts tariffs on its own peoples goods going into the EU`s former second biggest economy.
That'll test their unity I'm sure.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

You could comfortably replace Junker with May and Brussels with Westminster in the above.

Mays going to have a hell of a time once the population discover how much they're getting shafted.

Not really, it will be May agreeing to continued free trade, but Brussels seeking to harm it's own workers with new barriers to trade.


May is seeking a comprehensive FTA. Canada with trade worth ten times less has this and is not even aligned with EU rules in the way we are. Our existing free trade is real and present and millions of EU workers depend on it. Canada FT is merely abstract and potential to these workers.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Not really, it will be May agreeing to continued free trade, but Brussels seeking to harm it's own workers with new barriers to trade.

May is pitching for no FoM over everything else, and that she's wanting to leave the single market, and said that no deal is better than a bad deal. Brussels have said "no a la carte EU".

I don't think anyone, include May, is expecting the EU to agree with it, so it'll be up to May to decide which of her incompatible red lines she's going to have to cross.

May is seeking a comprehensive FTA. Canada with trade worth ten times less has this and is not even aligned with EU rules in the way we are. Our existing free trade is real and present and millions of EU workers depend on it. Canada FT is merely abstract and potential to these workers.

Canada has spent how long so far getting a trade deal nearly in place? I think that's Junkers point - these things take the fat end of a decade to sort out.

It should be easier for us as there's so much commonality, but there's also a lot more complexity because we're trying to unravel a 35 year old union.

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

May is pitching for no FoM over everything else, and that she's wanting to leave the single market, and said that no deal is better than a bad deal. Brussels have said "no a la carte EU".

I don't think anyone, include May, is expecting the EU to agree with it, so it'll be up to May to decide which of her incompatible red lines she's going to have to cross.


Canada has spent how long so far getting a trade deal nearly in place? I

HOLLAND FEARS


The Netherlands should push for the European Union to keep strong trade ties with Britain after the British quit the EU, a report commissioned by the Dutch parliament said on Tuesday.


Britain is the Netherlands' second-largest trading partner, accounting for 9 percent of exports, according to the paper by two members of the Dutch parliament.


"Any restriction on free trade with Britain would inevitably be at the cost of Dutch exports, prosperity and employment," it said.


For the Netherlands, allowing Britain to crash out of the EU with no agreement in place would be "very undesirable" because of trade tariffs that would "without doubt damage the Dutch economy," the report said.


http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-netherlands-idUKKBN16S17A?il=0

WengerIn

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Here's a funny thing: the GDP forecast for April that was so seized-upon by pro-remain advocates in here said the initial forecast was for very low growth, at least part of which was the suggestion that retail slowed.
I warned then that this was a preliminary estimate.

Well today comes a sign that retail - in the form of groceries at least - grew in April at the fastest rate since 2013!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-grocers-kantar-idUKKBN17Z0KE?il=0

That's a nominal figure for increased sales so the vast majority of the increase was simply as the result of higher prices. As your link states:

Grocery prices jumped 2.6 percent year-on-year in the period, up from the 2.3 percent recorded in the 12 weeks to March 26.

Generally you'd expect real retail spending to increase roughly in line with GDP. As real retail growth and real GDP growth both seem to be slowing your article seems to be consistent with the broader slowdown in the UK's services economy that we seem to be seeing. It's okay though, construction and manufacturing, which are between them a tiny part of the economy, are still growing.

To be completely clear, this is the transmission mechanism when the currency falls: locals can't afford to buy so much stuff as the price of it rises (70% of the increase you tout is from price rises and retail sales are increasing more slowly than GDP). Exports rise as foreigners can afford to buy more of your stuff.

Oops. I guess you thought you were posting a positive economic news story. Actually this story is a leading indicator pointing to a continued slowdown in GDP growth. Well done.
:T:rotfl::T:rotfl::T

Conrad

Herzlos wrote: »

Canada has spent how long so far getting a trade deal nearly in place? I think that's Junkers point - these things take the fat end of a decade to sort out.

We already have existing free and massive trade, Canada does not, so it's not a good comparison.


Delays on the Canada deal had no impact on real EU workers whereas hampering EU workers existing sales to the UK will be harmful

Conrad

WengerIn wrote: »

Oops. I guess you thought you were posting a positive economic news story. Actually this story is a leading indicator pointing to a continued slowdown in GDP growth. Well done.
:T:rotfl::T:rotfl::T

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/16/let-the-pound-fall-and-the-economy-rise

There have been suggestions from some in the remain camp that the hollowing out of manufacturing will make it impossible to gain any benefit from the cheaper pound. This, frankly, is nonsense. The current account deficit will shrink as a result of stronger exports from the manufacturing and service sectors, the boost provided to the tourism industry, and because cheaper domestic goods and services will be substituted for more expensive imports. To say that dearer imports will make life more difficult for consumers is to miss the point. That’s how rebalancing works.

At some point, referendum or no referendum, the financial markets were going to say enough is enough and it is delusional to think otherwise.


Had the result in the referendum gone the other way, the deficit would have got bigger.


Running permanent balance of payment deficits amounts to borrowing growth from the future. Sooner or later, it has to be paid back and Brexit means it will be sooner.

A weaker pound works by making exports cheaper and imports dearer. The effect, as after all the other devaluations and depreciations of the past 100 years – 1931, 1949, 1967, 1976, 1992 and 2007 – will make the economy less dependent on consumers and more reliant on producers. Lord Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England, thinks the latest fall in sterling is a good thing and he is right.

WengerIn

Conrad wrote: »

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/16/let-the-pound-fall-and-the-economy-rise

There have been suggestions from some in the remain camp that the hollowing out of manufacturing will make it impossible to gain any benefit from the cheaper pound. This, frankly, is nonsense. The current account deficit will shrink as a result of stronger exports from the manufacturing and service sectors, the boost provided to the tourism industry, and because cheaper domestic goods and services will be substituted for more expensive imports. To say that dearer imports will make life more difficult for consumers is to miss the point. That’s how rebalancing works.

At some point, referendum or no referendum, the financial markets were going to say enough is enough and it is delusional to think otherwise.


Had the result in the referendum gone the other way, the deficit would have got bigger.


Running permanent balance of payment deficits amounts to borrowing growth from the future. Sooner or later, it has to be paid back and Brexit means it will be sooner.

A weaker pound works by making exports cheaper and imports dearer. The effect, as after all the other devaluations and depreciations of the past 100 years – 1931, 1949, 1967, 1976, 1992 and 2007 – will make the economy less dependent on consumers and more reliant on producers. Lord Mervyn King, a former governor of the Bank of England, thinks the latest fall in sterling is a good thing and he is right.

Okay, so you want to move on from the car crash that was Jock's post. I can understand that.

I thought that the reason the 'white working class' voted Brexit was to improve their economic lot rather than to improve the lot of owners of exporting companies. Maybe the tiny number of British workers that work for goods exporting firms will get a pay rise to reflect the improved fortunes of the companies they work for. At least that way their real (inflation adjusted) wages might stop falling.