If we vote for Brexit what happens

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Here's a funny thing: the GDP forecast for April that was so seized-upon by pro-remain advocates in here said the initial forecast was for very low growth, at least part of which was the suggestion that retail slowed.
I warned then that this was a preliminary estimate.

Well today comes a sign that retail - in the form of groceries at least - grew in April at the fastest rate since 2013!

Britain's grocery market grew by 3.7 percent in the 12 weeks to April 23, the fastest rate since September 2013, driven by Britons splashing out on food at Easter and inflation edging higher, industry data showed on Wednesday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-grocers-kantar-idUKKBN17Z0KE?il=0

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Also confirmation of my post a week or so ago regarding an improvement in construction growth:

May 3 Growth in Britain's construction industry accelerated to a four-month high in April, adding to tentative signs that the economy might be recovering a little momentum after a lacklustre start to 2017, a survey showed on Wednesday.

Wednesday's release showed construction companies took on workers at the fastest rate since May last year to help cope with an influx of new orders, while cost pressures on firms eased further after hitting six-year highs earlier in 2017.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-uk-economy-pmi-idUKKBN17Z0R2

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

It wont come down to what's in it for the EU as a whole. It will come down to the sudden reality of being confronted by the decision to self harm for example thousands of Spaniards involved in supplying the UK with fruit n veg by erecting sales barriers. We could easily import from Israel, Morocco etc etc should Brussels erect sales taxes and barriers.


These real world harmful effects on up to 5 million EU citizens trading with the UK is where the real dynamics will play out.

Again, you like to treat the EU as a bloc when it suits you and not when it doesn't. On the one hand you predict the entire euro project will crumble to the UK because Spain will protect its tomato growers. And on the other hand it's a shadowy cabal run from Brussels which ignores national states and their governments.

Well which is it? You can't have both.

Based on Brexiteers own reasons for wanting to leave, Spanish tomato growers have no chance of being considered in Brexit negotiations.

Actually Conrad, you've been predicting the imminent demise of the EU for months now.

It doesn't seem any closer to happening.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

It wont come down to what's in it for the EU as a whole. It will come down to the sudden reality of being confronted by the decision to self harm for example thousands of Spaniards involved in supplying the UK with fruit n veg by erecting sales barriers. We could easily import from Israel, Morocco etc etc should Brussels erect sales taxes and barriers.


These real world harmful effects on up to 5 million EU citizens trading with the UK is where the real dynamics will play out.

Will these isolated clusters that are badly hurt by a hard Brexit be able to do anything about it? No groups in the UK are getting any consideration.

Will these isolated clusters be able to adjust their MO and move on, trading with someone else?

Will UK citizens be happy paying more for Israeli or Moroccan fruit & veg?

I mean, I understand where you're coming from; a vocal minority in Europe will want us to get a good deal, but does that minority have enough sway to make any actual difference? Our banking sector (estimated to be worth about 9% of our economy) couldn't get us to drop Brexit).
The only hope we have of that resulting in a good deal for Brexit is if it manages to cause enough hassle in EU to get them to give up, and even then it's very risky that any chaos/disunity will just lead to the negotiations timing out and going WTO, which is even more likely given that May is going to be "very difficult".

Sure, Spanish fruit sellers will be outraged, but will that make any difference to (a) the rest of Spain, or (b) the rest of Europe?

Herzlos

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Here's a funny thing: the GDP forecast for April that was so seized-upon by pro-remain advocates in here said the initial forecast was for very low growth, at least part of which was the suggestion that retail slowed.
I warned then that this was a preliminary estimate.

Well today comes a sign that retail - in the form of groceries at least - grew in April at the fastest rate since 2013!

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-grocers-kantar-idUKKBN17Z0KE?il=0

That's quite a jump in spending (I'm certainly glad of it) but I'm curious as to why - the good weather? I've spent a fortune on garden stuff in the last month, but it's all been on credit card :rotfl:

daveyjp

Herzlos wrote: »

That's quite a jump in spending (I'm certainly glad of it) but I'm curious as to why - the good weather? I've spent a fortune on garden stuff in the last month, but it's all been on credit card :rotfl:

A few weeks ago the reason given for poor figures was when Easter fell. The same reason could be why April spend on groceries was so much higher this year than last.

Conrad

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

We have both posted similar pieces in the past - from business in Bavaria asking for moderation regarding Brexit to the Irish or Danish or Dutch asking the same.

The likes of Junker have not yet imagined just how rough it will get once ordinary non political citizens suddenly realise their livelihoods are going to be put at stake by Brussels deliberately imposing sales barriers.



Citizens wont take kindly to bloated Brussels elites harming their livelihoods. This is my take home message.

Conrad

Arklight wrote: »

Again, you like to treat the EU as a bloc when it suits you and not when it doesn't. On the one hand you predict the entire euro project will crumble to the UK because Spain will protect its tomato growers. And on the other hand it's a shadowy cabal run from Brussels which ignores national states and their governments.

Well which is it? You can't have both.

When it comes to an army of potentially dispossessed European workers suddenly realising it is their jobs on the line when Brussels talks of implementing sales barriers, everything will change.


Think how the image of the child on the beach made a big impact for the refugee crisis. Why? Because it suddenly became Humanised and real.




Yan and his workers will suddenly get very vocal when it dawns he wont be able to sell his cheeses to Tesco's thanks to Brussels

setmefree2

Moby wrote: »

Brexiteers are in denial. They seriously think we can have a Brexit without a trade deal and that will not affect the living standards of millions of people in the UK. How can they be so naive or perhaps they dont care? Their hatred of the EU has eclipsed rational consideration of the future of this country. Someone says 'poor Moby stuck in a country they hate'. I dont hate my country I fear for its future and I hate the uncertain times we are in. It is clear the 27 are unified, France will elect Macron and there will be no EU meltdown. The Brexiteer fantasy of the end of the corrupt edifice is not going to be realised. The Germans and a re-energised Macron will see to that. Junkers has drawn the line in the sand. The EU will play dirty. There will be no secrecy in the coming negotiations. May wants a free hand and secrecy, (a blank cheque). Thats how she operates. Thats how she ran the Home Office. She is thin skinned and makes enemies and likes to be in control of the agenda. That is not going to happen no matter how big her election victory is! The negotiations will be leaked time and time again. No way will we be given a favourable trade deal by leaving the Single Market. We will pay big time and that will mean costs of imports will rise again and again. Future Trade deals will only be gained by undercutting the eu and that can only be done by driving down costs affecting the terms and conditions of millions of people.Do working people in this country seriously want to give the likes of Theresa May control over their future prospects. What evidence is there that she cares about working people. Look at education, look at the NHS. See the state public services are in and the answer is clear.

Mystic Moby.....

"The EU will play dirty" and that's a club he/she wants to be in.

I'm quite disgusted with the EU tbh....can't be the only Remainer to feel like that. 100 billion Euros - just !!!!!!?

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

.

I'm quite disgusted with the EU tbh....can't be the only Remainer to feel like that. 100 billion Euros - just !!!!!!?

Interestingly this very thing came out yesterday on LBC - a good number of committed Remainers were contacting the show saying how the EU's leaking of a private dinner conversation has instantly turned them into fuming Brexiteers.