If we vote for Brexit what happens

kabayiri

Quasar wrote: »

....
Several EU nationals I have spoken to will go back to their own countries, their professions being varied: a hairdresser, a biochemist working for a pharmaceutical company, two working in IT and one in specialised radiotherapy nursing. Several others from the same or other professions, are waiting to see how it pans out, so it's a bit of a mixture of feelings as one would expect.
...

You don't get it, do you?

The disaffected working class groups who voted Leave are gloriously inconsistent.

They really don't fear thousands of radiographers coming from Europe, bringing their new fangled X-ray techniques with them.

It's the competition from basic workers from cheaper places who are prepared to work longer hours and live crammed in to cheap rentals. In a place like Boston this means the double whammy of lower average income levels and rising rents, not a great combo.

Nobody in the political classes has been listening to these people for years, maybe even decades...and then someone comes along with a simple question complete with slogans. Why, it's like Xmas come early.

It won't be that many years until these cheap migrants are themselves complaining about being replaced by C3PIO's rough n ready cousin. FoM will be like a deceased canard then.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

The Irish have been in this position before, of course, with the Anglo-Irish economic wars of the 1930s.

It'd be easy for the EU core of Germany/France/Belgium to hang them out to dry, in favour of their much cherished red lines.

Eire may well sit outside the core of a two speed Europe. There's more than one game in play. Politics is at the core.

Quasar

kabayiri wrote: »

You don't get it, do you?

The disaffected working class groups who voted Leave are gloriously inconsistent.

They really don't fear thousands of radiographers coming from Europe, bringing their new fangled X-ray techniques with them.

It's the competition from basic workers from cheaper places who are prepared to work longer hours and live crammed in to cheap rentals. In a place like Boston this means the double whammy of lower average income levels and rising rents, not a great combo.

Nobody in the political classes has been listening to these people for years, maybe even decades...and then someone comes along with a simple question complete with slogans. Why, it's like Xmas come early.

It won't be that many years until these cheap migrants are themselves complaining about being replaced by C3PIO's rough n ready cousin. FoM will be like a deceased canard then.

Hang on, please. I wasn't particularly aiming at causing fear and terror about any specialists leaving the country but answering a specific point raised. It could be potato pickers or bricklayers or shop assistants, if I knew any, but I do not. I only mentioned the ones I DO know.

Spidernick

LHW99 wrote: »

The Blair / Brown governments almost bankrupted the country. The Wilson / Callaghan governments bankrupted the country....

What tripe (or 'alternative fact' as I believe is the term these days!)! The national debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been lower since the 1970s than for most of the 150 years before then:

http://www.res.org.uk/view/article5jan12Correspondence.html

I do wish you people would stop this nonsense about Labour and actually think before you post, unless you feel that the country has been in a permanent state of bankruptcy for many decades! :mad:

Shakethedisease

Ouch ! 100 billion. Hannan and Ashcroft are not happy bunnies tonight.

https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/859512756482998272

wotsthat

mrginge wrote: »

I don't know. I'm torn between the choice of May being bloody difficult and putting a few noses out of joint, or Jezza.

It really is a dilemma...

I'd find it easy to choose between a limp and a full amputation but would recognise neither were optimal outcomes.

Corbyn never was and never will be in charge of Brexit so it's ridiculous to consider what he'd do as a baseline for brexit success.

WengerIn

CNN on the dinner party from hell and more:

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/02/europe/may-juncker-brexit-dinner-disaster/

As the piece says, presumably the story is true as May hasn't denied it. It also reckons that the UK doesn't really have anything to offer the EU, something you can either call confirmation bias or someone else simply agreeing with me.

Zuleeg echoed this view, saying the report of the dinner would be politically beneficial to May in the run-up to next month's general election. He said: "Will this damage the size of her election victory? Probably not. In some ways it is convenient to portray her as the sole leader standing against the EU, the single fighter against the bureaucracy of other countries ganging up against Britain. In that sense there is no damage."

"Has it been damaging in terms of negotiating a deal -- to some extent, yes. But the one question for achieving a deal is whether Theresa May is willing to compromise on the very difficult red lines she has set out. If she is not willing to compromise on those then a deal looks quite unlikely."

cogito

Rinoa wrote: »

Ireland have today issued a statement on Brexit preparations.

Basically they want the EU to recognise potential difficulties faced by the Irish economy after Brexit and are looking for plans to mitigate their situation i.e. they want more money from the Eu.

http://www.taoiseach.gov.ie/eng/News/Government_Press_Releases/Government_Statement_on_Brexit_Preparations.html

The Irish position is very interesting. Irish friends tell me that the open border question is seen as the biggest problem following Brexit.

My view is that Ireland could very easily follow the UK out of the EU. We are their biggest market by far for agricultural products which we would be able to buy more cheaply elsewhere once we are bound by EU tariffs.

Second, the EU plan to unify corporate taxation across the bloc will make Ireland much less attractive to companies who have located their because of low taxation and because it is English speaking. These companies would up sticks and hop across the Irish Sea if the tax regime becomes unfavourable to them. It might happen anyway if Trump lowers corporate taxation in the USA as companies can then repatriate their huge cash piles.

Third, Ireland has recently become a net contributor to the EU for the first time since it joined the bloc and these contributions are set to increase enormously over the next few years. Understandably, they are not too happy about that and it's noticeable that arch europhile Enda Kenny has been changing his tune somewhat of late.

Brexit is a huge game changer for the Irish, more so than any other member country.

WengerIn

And in further Brexit news today:

https://www.ft.com/content/b2c842a6-2b64-11e7-bc4b-5528796fe35c?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=170502&utm_campaign=moneystuff

Brussels is rushing out proposals to impose EU control on the City of London’s lucrative euro-clearing market, forcing UK operators to either relocate or be policed by European authorities. In a provocative regulatory salvo fired as Brexit talks begin, the European Commission is preparing to issue legislative proposals in June that would heavily restrict London’s ability to host one of its flagship financial businesses.

The commission’s power play will be a setback for London, which fought hard for six years to fend off French-led attempts to relocate euro clearing to the single-currency area. Although French and German finance ministers have warned that Brexit makes London’s euro-clearing dominance unsustainable, this hasty intervention goes further, threatening a legal fait accompli to enshrine location restrictions even before Britain leaves the bloc.

The problem the UK has with resisting this is that London, mostly through the LSE-owned London Clearing House (LCH), clears over half of Euro-denominated derivatives trades. It would be pretty simple to require central counterparties over a certain size to be based in the Euro area and effectively only include the LCH.

There are precedents for this: to be a broker in Greece you effectively have to use a local broker (so Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan etc use local Greek brokers when buying for their clients) and to settle Australian equity trades you have to be based in Australia.

LCH cleared trades with a notional value of $666 trillion in 2016 in swaps with a further half trillion in CDS and $3 trillion of FX trades being cleared. You don't need huge charges on that sort of money to make a lot yourself and indeed the LCH charged clients the fat end of half a billion Euros and almost EUR200 million of that was paid out in wages, mostly to British staff.

System

Still at least we can open some factories that produce small plastic animals to put in Christmas crackers