If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

More London job losses.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-p-morgan-to-shift-up-to-1-000-jobs-out-of-london-ahead-of-brexit-1493820078?mod=e2fb
Sorry paywall.
This better
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39789915

US bank JP Morgan could move up to 1,000 jobs out of London ahead of the UK's exit from the European Union.
A senior executive at the Wall Street giant, Daniel Pinto, said that "hundreds" of staff may move to Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg.
However, it is understood that the number of people who would be relocated involves between 500 and 1,000 jobs.
Earlier, Standard Chartered bank said it was in talks with German regulators about making Frankfurt its Europe base.

It's less than 1000 but still a lot of spending power.
Job losses appear only to effect the Capital. British manufacturing should be ok with the pounds weakness helping a lot.

The_Last_Username

gfplux wrote: »

I only wish that were true. "They do not want us to leave"
My understanding is that "Brussels" and Britain in general would loose too much face if the process was halted. Further as I have mentioned before many voters within the EU were amazed at the result of the referendum believing rightly or wrongly that Britain had a sweetheart deal. That has now moved to wanting Britain gone, gone, gone.
So both sides can not turn back. Sadly.

Except we are dealing with politicians and they will always surprise you.

There is absolutely no serious talk of the process of Brexit being halted. Let's get that delusion out the way first.
You (deliberately?) misinterpret an apparent EU fear of us leaving.

As for the remainder - well that's strange because I visit EU countries reasonably regularly and have many friends across Europe.
And the impression I get is very different.

Voters in the EU were not "amazed" by and large - those devoutly pro-EU were perhaps the most likely to be surprised but "amazed" is certainly far too strong a terminology.
Upset is a more accurate way to describe the majority that even cared, in my experience.
Oh, and not so many cared.
Initially at least.

Upset though mostly for one of three reasons too:
1/ They see an EU without the UK as being weaker, losing power and so more vulnerable to influence from the USA, Russia and China. Europeans like to see themselves as being as powerful as the USA or Russia, strangely.
2/ They see a vote to leave the EU as a sign of mistrust in the EU. Hardly surprising when you see high unemployment and low growth in much of the EU whilst one country flourishes. Also when so many individuals in the EU27 also mistrust the EU.
3/ They understand what a major payee to EU coffers the UK has been - and realise that the UK leaving MUST cost them more.


The only people who want the UK "gone gone gone" as you put it IME are the politicians - or those closely connected to the politics of the EU.
I speak to ordinary Europeans from Hungary and Poland to France and Spain on an almost daily basis.
On the rare occasions Brexit is discussed in more detail than just an odd few words, the reaction is mostly favourable to the UK.
Not always.
But certainly mostly.

The_Last_Username

gfplux wrote: »

More London job losses.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/j-p-morgan-to-shift-up-to-1-000-jobs-out-of-london-ahead-of-brexit-1493820078?mod=e2fb
Sorry paywall.
This better
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39789915

US bank JP Morgan could move up to 1,000 jobs out of London ahead of the UK's exit from the European Union.
A senior executive at the Wall Street giant, Daniel Pinto, said that "hundreds" of staff may move to Dublin, Frankfurt and Luxembourg.
However, it is understood that the number of people who would be relocated involves between 500 and 1,000 jobs.
Earlier, Standard Chartered bank said it was in talks with German regulators about making Frankfurt its Europe base.

It's less than 1000 but still a lot of spending power.
Job losses appear only to effect the Capital. British manufacturing should be ok with the pounds weakness helping a lot.

Tell us when it happens.
They've been on about this possibility for years.
Also note one very important word: "may".

"May" move, as in might perhaps possibly.

The_Last_Username

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

Who changed stance first?
Juncker & Barnier or when Cameron stepped down and May took over?

So who has had longer to finalise a coherent plan?

posh*spice

Fella wrote: »

Juncker & Barnier have not thought their strategy through to it's logical ending IMO.

Back when Cameron was pleading for crumbs of concession, the EU were at least pretending there was a semblence of warmth in the relationship. Although they didn't give an inch there was at least the paper-thin pretence that the UK was a friend they didn't want to lose. The talk was all about what a lovely friendly democratic place the EU was.

By acting the way they have this week, the EU have demostrated this is not the case. That sends a very strong message to the 27 member states but it's not the message they intend. Effectively the relationship between the EU & it's member states is being shown to be that of captor & hostage. That is likely to go down extremely poorly with the electorate of other countries who might also want a referendum. Juncker clearly believes the only way to negotiate is bullying with fear tactics. He tried it pre-referendum & it failed spectacularly. He's doing it again now. I suspect not only will it fail, but also it will have the very opposite effect to what he's hoping in other member states. Next time a country is considering leaving, the EU will not have the option of portraying itself as a friendly democracy. It'll have proven itself to be a vengeful dictatorship. I can't think of anything more likely to whip up the leave sentiment everywhere.

I wonder how this is playing out in France....

IveSeenTheLight

The_Last_Username wrote: »

So who has had longer to finalise a coherent plan?

I'm not sure what your point is.
Initial negotiations were apparently moving well under Cameron, but a much different stance now May is leading the UK into Brexit.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

IveSeenTheLight wrote: »

I'm not sure what your point is.
Initial negotiations were apparently moving well under Cameron, but a much different stance now May is leading the UK into Brexit.

Well?
:rotfl:
Aye, well we remember Cameron's return from his jolly around the EU with no more than a flea in his ear.
:rotfl:

posh*spice

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Well?
:rotfl:
Aye, well we remember Cameron's return from his jolly around the EU with no more than a flea in his ear.
:rotfl:

Indeed. :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

gfplux

The_Last_Username wrote: »

There is absolutely no serious talk of the process of Brexit being halted. Let's get that delusion out the way first.
You (deliberately?) misinterpret an apparent EU fear of us leaving.

As for the remainder - well that's strange because I visit EU countries reasonably regularly and have many friends across Europe.
And the impression I get is very different.

Voters in the EU were not "amazed" by and large - those devoutly pro-EU were perhaps the most likely to be surprised but "amazed" is certainly far too strong a terminology.
Upset is a more accurate way to describe the majority that even cared, in my experience.
Oh, and not so many cared.
Initially at least.

Upset though mostly for one of three reasons too:
1/ They see an EU without the UK as being weaker, losing power and so more vulnerable to influence from the USA, Russia and China. Europeans like to see themselves as being as powerful as the USA or Russia, strangely.
2/ They see a vote to leave the EU as a sign of mistrust in the EU. Hardly surprising when you see high unemployment and low growth in much of the EU whilst one country flourishes. Also when so many individuals in the EU27 also mistrust the EU.
3/ They understand what a major payee to EU coffers the UK has been - and realise that the UK leaving MUST cost them more.


The only people who want the UK "gone gone gone" as you put it IME are the politicians - or those closely connected to the politics of the EU.
I speak to ordinary Europeans from Hungary and Poland to France and Spain on an almost daily basis.
On the rare occasions Brexit is discussed in more detail than just an odd few words, the reaction is mostly favourable to the UK.
Not always.
But certainly mostly.

I don't want to get in to a game of pin pong and bat the ball back to you.
My post was in reply to a poster making the statement "they don't want us to leave" I clearly pointed out that leaving was the only way.

Now to our differing view of what other Europeans think. That your impression is different, fine, no problem.

gfplux

posh*spice wrote: »

I wonder how this is playing out in France....

Le Pen and Macron are head to head in a live TV debate as I write.