If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

No, economists well know the difference: it's covered in the first chapter of most first year economics text books
somewhere afterwards it gets forgotten : just like so many PC issues. Anyway its irrelevant as I am talking about the real world of real people and not acedemia

To know something is FALSE doesn't equate to having a comprehensive alternative.

However, we don't need a comprehensive alternative to note
-that price of london property is determined largely by supply and demand
-that demand is affected by the number of people wanting to live there
-the the number of people that want to live there is heavily influenced by immigration
-the inability of reasonably paid 30-40 years old to be unable to afford a modest family house has a major impact of quality of life
-there is no reasonable expectation that the supply side can provide sufficient to correct the situation within any reasonable time frame.
-whilst it may be arguable that the god GDP has increased with immigration, it is less true that per capita GDP has done like wise and it's clearly true that the quality of life has decreased

Clapton.
I started this thread asking for information about post Brexit. Are you actually arguing that the price of London property will fall after Brexit, if so what do you estimate the time frame of that fall in prices. Are you suggesting that the fall in property prices will follow large numbers of immigrants/refugees being deported from the UK post Brexit. If so could you suggest numbers and a time frame.
Thank you.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Clapton.
I started this thread asking for information about post Brexit. Are you actually arguing that the price of London property will fall after Brexit, if so what do you estimate the time frame of that fall in prices. Are you suggesting that the fall in property prices will follow large numbers of immigrants/refugees being deported from the UK post Brexit. If so could you suggest numbers and a time frame.
Thank you.

if immigration falls to a few thousand a year then I would expect London/SE house prices to stabalise

I consider it extremely unlikely that there will be mass deportations so I would not expect a fall in prices unless we have a major supply side increase.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

Do you think Apple will care where it's future iCar will be made?
(my money would be on China and not Romania in future)

Be like the watch. A product no one wants.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

Once you read beyond the first chapter you discover that economics concluded long ago that the words 'price' and 'value' mean the same thing, and those that seek to differentiate between the two are simply saying that the market price is somehow 'wrong' and that a different number should be applied.

And economics has the tools to cope with that kind of argument.



A strange remark to make. In the 'real world of real people' it's price that matters. You are the one that wants to replace that with some academic notion of 'value'.



It bl00dy well does if you want public policy to change. You need to come up with something a bit better than an assertion that something is "false", but can't be bothered to come up with something different.


I don't think that boils down to anything more than an assertion that money isn't the only consideration we should take into account when making a political decision.

Big deal. I doubt you'd find many people, economists included, who would disagree with that proposition.

its good that we agree : that GDP argument is totally false and irrelevant to the stay/go argument

sadly many economists do NOT publicly acknowledge any measure except GDP (or sometimes per capita GDP)

one can have a qualitative understanding that increased congestion, long waiting list for doctors, high house prices and other things are BAD things without having a quantitative framework to express these numerically.

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

if immigration falls to a few thousand a year then I would expect London/SE house prices to stabalise

I consider it extremely unlikely that there will be mass deportations so I would not expect a fall in prices unless we have a major supply side increase.

Sorry, I thought you where suggesting one of the reasons for voting out was that this would solve the London Housing price problem. So should I cross that off the list of things that would make me vote out.
In due course I am going to work on a positive/negative list. Each plus/minus will be one SIMPLE sentence that could be supported by data, not opinion.
Thank you.

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

Sorry, I thought you where suggesting one of the reasons for voting out was that this would solve the London Housing price problem. So should I cross that off the list of things that would make me vote out.
In due course I am going to work on a positive/negative list. Each plus/minus will be one SIMPLE sentence that could be supported by data, not opinion.
Thank you.

the issues in the real world are complex
if you can tell me the net immigration over the next 10 years
and the net housing build rate over the same period
and can identify all the shocks to the world financial system
then I will guess at the movement of London houses price.

if you want yes/no answers try a board game

gfplux

CLAPTON wrote: »

the issues in the real world are complex
if you can tell me the net immigration over the next 10 years
and the net housing build rate over the same period
and can identify all the shocks to the world financial system
then I will guess at the movement of London houses price.

if you want yes/no answers try a board game

So, if I understand you have taken London house prices off the table as an issue to consider over EU membership. Why did you bring it up in the first place..........check!

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

its good that we agree : that GDP argument is totally false and irrelevant to the stay/go argument ..

No, as it happens.

CLAPTON wrote: »

...sadly many economists do NOT publicly acknowledge any measure except GDP (or sometimes per capita GDP)....

Name one.

CLAPTON wrote: »

...one can have a qualitative understanding that increased congestion, long waiting list for doctors, high house prices and other things are BAD things without having a quantitative framework to express these numerically.

I think by "qualitative understanding" you mean, opinion.:)

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

No, as it happens.



Name one.



I think by "qualitative understanding" you mean, opinion.:)

Yes indeed, opinion if you choose to called educated guessing such.

I would be interested to know which mathematical formulae you worship as gods that have the monopoly of objective 'truth'.
I do hold that supply and demand in some circumstances determines price although we can't determine the constant in the equation, so just an opinion.
I do believe that the number of people that want to live in London/SE in a major factor in demand but just an opinion.
I do believe that the 3 million foreign born people in London are a factor in the demand.
I do believe that the size /quality of housing is a significant factor in the happiness factor in peoples lives : but only an opinion no mathematical formula to prove it.
For this and many other reasons (not its true, mathematical formula) I conclude a smaller population would make us 'richer'.
So I support an immigration ban.

Doubtless you will share your objective mathematical based science and clear away all this claptrap.

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

Yes indeed, opinion if you choose to called educated guessing such....

Yes, it would be an opinion. And one which you are perfectly entitled to hold.

CLAPTON wrote: »

...I would be interested to know which mathematical formulae you worship as gods that have the monopoly of objective 'truth'.
I do hold that supply and demand in some circumstances determines price although we can't determine the constant in the equation, so just an opinion.
I do believe that the number of people that want to live in London/SE in a major factor in demand but just an opinion.
I do believe that the 3 million foreign born people in London are a factor in the demand.
I do believe that the size /quality of housing is a significant factor in the happiness factor in peoples lives : but only an opinion no mathematical formula to prove it.
For this and many other reasons (not its true, mathematical formula) I conclude a smaller population would make us 'richer'.
So I support an immigration ban.

Doubtless you will share your objective mathematical based science and clear away all this claptrap.

Mathematics is a science. It's not a matter of faith.

You should disengage rant mode.