If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

Trade in what? Goods, services, capital, or labour? They all count as trade, and they are all allowed to move freely within the EEA, which is the trade contract that we have with Europe. Either the whole thing goes, or the whole thing stays, or you try and negotiate something to replace it.

A contract is a contract; you can't pick and choose which bits of a contract you like, and then dispense with the bits that you don't like, without the other party's consent.

why exactly can't parts of a 'contract 'be renegotiated'?

antrobus

CLAPTON wrote: »

why exactly can't parts of a 'contract 'be renegotiated'?

That's exactly what I am telling you; the contract has to be renegotiated. There are no bits of the contract that will automatically continue, and there are no bits of the contract that will automatically cease. Once you give notice of termination, it's all up in the air.

The exact question being posed by this thread is 'what kind of contract will we be able to negotiate'. To which the answer is 'nobody knows'.

CLAPTON

antrobus wrote: »

That's exactly what I am telling you; the contract has to be renegotiated. There are no bits of the contract that will automatically continue, and there are no bits of the contract that will automatically cease. Once you give notice of termination, it's all up in the air.

The exact question being posed by this thread is 'what kind of contract will we be able to negotiate'. To which the answer is 'nobody knows'.

we seem once again to be in complete agreement;
there will be a new set of rules that are yet to be agreed.

mayonnaise

Clapton : existing trade contracts could continue
sensible person : existing trade agreements would need to be renegotiated.
Clapton : why can't we renegotiate existing agreements?
sensible person : yes, that's my point.
Clapton : we seem once again to be in complete agreement


I wonder why you still waste your time on this one, sensible person.

oneacourt

Tromking wrote: »

There will be widespread panic in the EU and another referendum within 6 months with a much better deal on the table.

There is certainly room for improvement within the workings of the EU (just as within the UK), reason why the EU is constantly evolving, and so is the UK. Threatening with leaving the club is not a good tactic, because as soon as the group gives in to the demands by one member, it will be held at ransom by the next. I dout that the EU would be in a position to make the UK a better offer for club membership if the British public decided to leave the EU.

londonTiger

antrobus wrote: »

Trade in what? Goods, services, capital, or labour? They all count as trade, and they are all allowed to move freely within the EEA, which is the trade contract that we have with Europe. Either the whole thing goes, or the whole thing stays, or you try and negotiate something to replace it.

A contract is a contract; you can't pick and choose which bits of a contract you like, and then dispense with the bits that you don't like, without the other party's consent.

Agreed. The change is effective immediately. There's no such thing as "existing contracts will continue" in this instance.

If a british company agreed to buy 10 tonnes of steel per month from a Germany supplier and we vote to exit the EU on the close of March 31st. From 1st April European supplier will have to charge full EU vat. HMRC may even charge import duties and import VAT on top of that as well. Suddenly you are paying 1.5x for the same stuff overnight.

Oh and all taxes, tariffs, duties are outside of any agreement. Two entites agree on the base commodity price all taxes are outside of the agreement.

This is the deal with switzerland, they have their own currency and are outside the EU. When my company invoices a swiss supplier. They cannot reclaim any of the VAT that HMRC have levied on the invoice.

I think its really deceitful how the brexit gang are painting this in rose tinted glasses. EU is our biggest trading partner. The EU market is the biggest market in the world. Far bigger than the US or Chinese market in sheer GDP terms. It's just that nobody puts the whole EEC together as an economic entitity.

USA nominal GDP: 16.77 trillion USD
China nominal GDP: 9.24 trillion USD
EEC nominal GDP: 18.5 trillion USD

Switzerland is small country with a population of 8million whose economy is based around financial services. There are no VAT in financial services or banking so European banks and mega rich can put their money into switzerland without any VAT or tariffs. UK is a population of 64 million and supplies physical goods as well as financial services. It's not a tax haven and our economy is geared around producing and supplying physical goods. A big chunk of trade is export to Europe and we're going to lose our competitiveness in European markets if every time we try to sell something to Europe they are taxed twice by our revenue and the revenue of the destination country.

CLAPTON

londonTiger wrote: »

Agreed. The change is effective immediately. There's no such thing as "existing contracts will continue" in this instance.

If a british company agreed to buy 10 tonnes of steel per month from a Germany supplier and we vote to exit the EU on the close of March 31st. From 1st April European supplier will have to charge full EU vat. HMRC may even charge import duties and import VAT on top of that as well. Suddenly you are paying 1.5x for the same stuff overnight.

Oh and all taxes, tariffs, duties are outside of any agreement. Two entites agree on the base commodity price all taxes are outside of the agreement.

This is the deal with switzerland, they have their own currency and are outside the EU. When my company invoices a swiss supplier. They cannot reclaim any of the VAT that HMRC have levied on the invoice.

I think its really deceitful how the brexit gang are painting this in rose tinted glasses. EU is our biggest trading partner. The EU market is the biggest market in the world. Far bigger than the US or Chinese market in sheer GDP terms. It's just that nobody puts the whole EEC together as an economic entitity.

USA nominal GDP: 16.77 trillion USD
China nominal GDP: 9.24 trillion USD
EEC nominal GDP: 18.5 trillion USD

Switzerland is small country with a population of 8million whose economy is based around financial services. There are no VAT in financial services or banking so European banks and mega rich can put their money into switzerland without any VAT or tariffs. UK is a population of 64 million and supplies physical goods as well as financial services. It's not a tax haven and our economy is geared around producing and supplying physical goods. A big chunk of trade is export to Europe and we're going to lose our competitiveness in European markets if every time we try to sell something to Europe they are taxed twice by our revenue and the revenue of the destination country.

If what you say is true (I don't personally know the full facts on this matter) presumably then the German company will lose sales when the british company buys from non VAT supplier elsewhere
why would the EU want to lose this trade?

Robisere

There is just one factor which prevents me from completely agreeing with the "Out" vote.

What happens to the jobs that my grandchildren lose, if the UK leaves the EU?

We live in East Lindsey, Lincolnshire, where many jobs are seasonal, connected with the resorts along the coast. There is major investment by large German, Danish and British companies in renewables factories along the Humber, which has transformed the outlook for our young people, partcularly in engineering. Siemens, for example, have favoured engineering connections around Lincoln for over 50 years. This has now developed into heavy investment, even to the point of financing and building a whole new Engineering campus at Lincoln University. The whole area of Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire will benefit from all this investment and expansion, with knock-on effects for smaller companies and suppliers. Already colleges and other educational establishments are seeing greater uptakes in engineering. This is something that will lift our area out of seasonal dependency and stop the flow of young people out of our counties.

There are two problems: because this country has ignored engineering education for so long, there are too few trained, mature engineers coming into the colleges, to pass on their knowledge and expertise to the next generation. Next problem is a 'What If':

What if we leave the EU, and these companies leave the UK? Where does that leave my 17 year old grandson, currently attending a 3 day Engineering course at Grimsby Institute and working 2 days at an engineering plant? Where does it leave my 22 year old grandson, a computer networking engineer, whose small but highly advanced company is investing in technology to work with these companies?

Can anyone with a reliable enough crystal ball, answer that? Of course not. I have to say that there are areas of the EU that I completely disagree with. For instance, the evident corruption of an organisation that consistently refuses to expose its accounts to public scrutiny. The fact that we in the UK voted for a Common Market, not a United States of Europe. The continual drain on our resources by the migrants that we are not allowed to prevent entering our country. The continual wearing away of our sovereignity by unelected Brussels bureaucrats. I could go on and on, but all of that pales into insignificance for me against the possibilty of my grandsons losing the chance to prosper in employment that will keep them in the 21st Century.

CLAPTON

Robisere wrote: »

There is just one factor which prevents me from completely agreeing with the "Out" vote.

What happens to the jobs that my grandchildren lose, if the UK leaves the EU?

We live in East Lindsey, Lincolnshire, where many jobs are seasonal, connected with the resorts along the coast. There is major investment by large German, Danish and British companies in renewables factories along the Humber, which has transformed the outlook for our young people, partcularly in engineering. Siemens, for example, have favoured engineering connections around Lincoln for over 50 years. This has now developed into heavy investment, even to the point of financing and building a whole new Engineering campus at Lincoln University. The whole area of Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire will benefit from all this investment and expansion, with knock-on effects for smaller companies and suppliers. Already colleges and other educational establishments are seeing greater uptakes in engineering. This is something that will lift our area out of seasonal dependency and stop the flow of young people out of our counties.

There are two problems: because this country has ignored engineering education for so long, there are too few trained, mature engineers coming into the colleges, to pass on their knowledge and expertise to the next generation. Next problem is a 'What If':

What if we leave the EU, and these companies leave the UK? Where does that leave my 17 year old grandson, currently attending a 3 day Engineering course at Grimsby Institute and working 2 days at an engineering plant? Where does it leave my 22 year old grandson, a computer networking engineer, whose small but highly advanced company is investing in technology to work with these companies?

Can anyone with a reliable enough crystal ball, answer that? Of course not. I have to say that there are areas of the EU that I completely disagree with. For instance, the evident corruption of an organisation that consistently refuses to expose its accounts to public scrutiny. The fact that we in the UK voted for a Common Market, not a United States of Europe. The continual drain on our resources by the migrants that we are not allowed to prevent entering our country. The continual wearing away of our sovereignity by unelected Brussels bureaucrats. I could go on and on, but all of that pales into insignificance for me against the possibilty of my grandsons losing the chance to prosper in employment that will keep them in the 21st Century.

why are these companies manufacturing in the UK : is it because they love us dearly and doing us a favour or good business?

londonTiger

CLAPTON wrote: »

If what you say is true (I don't personally know the full facts on this matter) presumably then the German company will lose sales when the british company buys from non VAT supplier elsewhere
why would the EU want to lose this trade?

Where are surrounded by EC countries. The nearest non EC country are Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and north Africa. USA & Canada are miles away and are very expensive ship items from .

Also ask yourself why Iceland, Norway & Switzerland are not in the EU.

As I said before Switzerland is a tax haven and financial hub. Financial services are not VATed and there are no tariffs for it. Ultra rich individuals and businessess will use Swiss financial services regardless of whether they are EU member or not. So why should switzerland bear the cost of EU membership?

Iceland is a small nation with a population of just 323,000. Read again, 323,000. 6 figures! They have access to vast ocean reserves and can fish the north Atlantic easily. Waters which no other country would bother sailing to. Large population in North America and Europe need to be fed - they have an easy market to export to.

Norway - again small population with oil wealth. They have a product that everyone wants.