If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

In Aus you can buy Australian unsubsidised tomatoes put in a can in Australia. They will cost you c.$1.50 a tin.

Alternatively you can buy Italian tomatoes in Italy, put in a tin in Italy and subsidised to the hilt and then dumped on the Australian market. They cost 60c a tin.

worthy of a separate thread how or whether 'dumping' should be handled.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

worthy of a separate thread how or whether 'dumping' should be handled.

Australia tolerates it in order to gain access to the EU markets.

The UK might very well find itself in the same position (although I doubt Scottish tinned tomatoes will be a hit any time soon).

gfplux

angrypirate wrote: »

Really? REALLY? So say the referendum is on the 1st June. Do you honestly expect that if we vote out, we will be longer be in the EU on the 2nd June? News for you - NO. There will be months, if not years of negotiating an exit strategy with the EU that will include trade deals. In fact, dont you think its quite likely we'd be giving an EFTA deal pretty much immediately that would require minimal negotiations?
You know what happens if the EU doesnt give us an agreement - that German steel company looses its contract as the British company would sign a steel supply contract with a much cheaper Chinese supplier thanks to the new trade deal the British government can sign with China.

Angry, this is your post 245. I posted a link to the EU withdrawal clause in 145.

It says.

"Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union provides for a mechanism for the voluntary and unilateral withdrawal of a country from the European Union (EU).

An EU country wishing to withdraw must notify the European Council of its intention to do so. The European Council is then required to provide guidelines for the conclusion of an agreement setting out the arrangements for that country's withdrawal.

This agreement is concluded on behalf of the EU by the Council, acting by qualified majority, having obtained the European Parliament's consent.

The EU treaties cease to apply to the country in question from the date of entry into force of the agreement, or within 2 years of the notification of the withdrawal. The Council may decide to extend that period.

Any country that has withdrawn from the EU may apply to rejoin. It would be required to go through the accession procedure."

Don't let your anger blind you to the facts. (As we know them)

gfplux

It appears to me (I am an undecided voter) that the prejudice against Immigrants (perhaps "foreigners in general) From some on this thread and the anger at high London house prices by others get in the way of the true pro's and cons of remaining in the EU.
Even the bigots seem to except that House prices are not linked to our membership or immigrants. Even if we vote out I don't understand how that will have much impact on immigrants fleeing for their lives as we are 2 or 3 years away from leaving even if the vote is to get out.

Most of the undecided like me want to have some facts so to make a reasoned and intelligent decision on which way to vote.

kabayiri

I think a vote to remain might lead to reform of our state benefits system, and a change in philosophy for our NHS to a paid model backed by insurance.

Both of these would be a plus in my book.

If you can not control the numbers of people who come to the UK, you have to look at the fundamental drivers of why they come and remain.

Interestingly, a spokesperson who was in the Polish government, said that their view was the UK should adopt this solution : ie change the benefits system in the UK itself.

Would this mean we end up harmonising taxation and benefits across Europe over the long term?

CLAPTON

gfplux wrote: »

It appears to me (I am an undecided voter) that the prejudice against Immigrants (perhaps "foreigners in general) From some on this thread and the anger at high London house prices by others get in the way of the true pro's and cons of remaining in the EU.
Even the bigots seem to except that House prices are not linked to our membership or immigrants. Even if we vote out I don't understand how that will have much impact on immigrants fleeing for their lives as we are 2 or 3 years away from leaving even if the vote is to get out.

Most of the undecided like me want to have some facts so to make a reasoned and intelligent decision on which way to vote.

I don't know about bigots, but the economically literate people, generally believe that price is determined (in same market places) by supply and demand : in the housing market place , demand is related to the number of people wanting to live in that area.
In London there are over 3 million non UK born people : the price of property is clearly affected by the huge number.
A brexit could stop the number of immigrates increasing and so, over time would lead to lower house prices than otherwise would have been the case.

but of course the ignorant may choose to reduce everything to bigots and choose to learn nothing.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

I don't know about bigots, but the economically literate people, generally believe that price is determined (in same market places) by supply and demand : in the housing market place , demand is related to the number of people wanting to live in that area.
In London there are over 3 million non UK born people : the price of property is clearly affected by the huge number.
A brexit could stop the number of immigrates increasing and so, over time would lead to lower house prices than otherwise would have been the case.

but of course the ignorant may choose to reduce everything to bigots and choose to learn nothing.

Demand is the number of people willing and able to pay for something. That another person moves to London doesn't necessarily change demand.

A Brexit will do nothing about immigration. A 20 mile strip of sea is nothing in these days. Mrs Generali lived in the UK for over a decade without ever using me as a reason for immigration purposes. You're all dreaming of an England that has never existed really, the one that John Major used to harp on about with warm beer cycling to church and the sun going down on old maids.

I have a questions for all that support a Brexit:

What benefits and costs precisely do you see accruing from Brexit:

1. In the time between voting for a Brexit and the Brexit
2. In the first year post Brexit
3. In the first five years post Brexit
4. After five years....

?

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

Demand is the number of people willing and able to pay for something. That another person moves to London doesn't necessarily change demand.

A Brexit will do nothing about immigration. A 20 mile strip of sea is nothing in these days. Mrs Generali lived in the UK for over a decade without ever using me as a reason for immigration purposes. You're all dreaming of an England that has never existed really, the one that John Major used to harp on about with warm beer cycling to church and the sun going down on old maids.

I have a questions for all that support a Brexit:

What benefits and costs precisely do you see accruing from Brexit:

1. In the time between voting for a Brexit and the Brexit
2. In the first year post Brexit
3. In the first five years post Brexit
4. After five years....

?

I think that the 3 million non UK born people in London do have created an EFFECTIVE demand for housing : and so do you.
We both know the mechanisms why more people arriving in London increase the price of property even if they don't themselves actually buy a property. (if you really don't know just shout and I will explain it to you.)

A Brexit could provide the UK with the legal ability to stop all legal immigration.
I fully accept that the leaders of all three parties have for years, 100% accepted the case for unlimited immigration, just as they all kept a blind eye to many other social problems.
And, no I don't expect immigration to fall to zero and yes I still think that some illegal migrants will continue to arrive here.

Actually, it once was possible for the utility worker, the youngish school teacher, the nurse etc to buy a modest family home in London in their 30s and to start a family. Nothing to do with warm beer but to do with the colossal increase in prices.

I don't know what is going to happen over the next 5 years whether we leave or stay, and I certainly know of no-one who claims they know PRECISELY.

Clearly there might be huge damage to UK: just think how Aus and NZ never recovered from the UK joining the EU with the associated disruption to trade.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

...
What benefits and costs precisely do you see accruing from Brexit:

1. In the time between voting for a Brexit and the Brexit
2. In the first year post Brexit
3. In the first five years post Brexit
4. After five years....

?

The OUT guy on Daily Politics was asked pretty much this, and flustered his way to a failed answer.

I think the arguments get stronger at the local level though, when people point to local jobs and pressures in their communities (however right/wrong this may be).

I think Brexit will be fought on perception more than facts and figures.

Generali

kabayiri wrote: »

The OUT guy on Daily Politics was pretty much this, and flustered his way to a failed answer.

I think the arguments get stronger at the local level though, when people point to local jobs and pressures in their communities (however right/wrong this may be).

I think Brexit will be fought on perception more than facts and figures.

In some ways I sell intagibles to people and it is hard.

For Brexitiers they have what...? Immigration has been too high. But then they can't argue that immigrants should be kicked out because it makes them sound like the BNP. The current wave of immigrants is mostly stopping in the EU at present so the 'but wait til they come here' argument is, I guess, wearing thin.

Beyond that there is an argument about sovereignty but that is pretty esoteric really. Are barmaids and builders standing about in their quieter moments discussing the finer points of subsidiarity? I have worked on both building sites and in pubs and I have my doubts.