If we vote for Brexit what happens

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

I think that the 3 million non UK born people in London do have created an EFFECTIVE demand for housing : and so do you.
We both know the mechanisms why more people arriving in London increase the price of property even if they don't themselves actually buy a property. (if you really don't know just shout and I will explain it to you.)

A Brexit could provide the UK with the legal ability to stop all legal immigration.
I fully accept that the leaders of all three parties have for years, 100% accepted the case for unlimited immigration, just as they all kept a blind eye to many other social problems.
And, no I don't expect immigration to fall to zero and yes I still think that some illegal migrants will continue to arrive here.

Actually, it once was possible for the utility worker, the youngish school teacher, the nurse etc to buy a modest family home in London in their 30s and to start a family. Nothing to do with warm beer but to do with the colossal increase in prices.

I don't know what is going to happen over the next 5 years whether we leave or stay, and I certainly know of no-one who claims they know PRECISELY.

Clearly there might be huge damage to UK: just think how Aus and NZ never recovered from the UK joining the EU with the associated disruption to trade.

What do you think will be achieved by Brexit? What positive benefits will accrue to the UK and what risks do you see?

Let's keep it simple.

The ability for comparatively low wage people to buy houses was constrained by the lack of mortgage funds available: you needed to be a white man to buy a house with a mortgage, have an long standing relationship with the lender and have a large deposit.

None of those things have anything to do with immigration.

londonTiger

Generali wrote: »

What do you think will be achieved by Brexit? What positive benefits will accrue to the UK and what risks do you see?

Let's keep it simple.

The ability for comparatively low wage people to buy houses was constrained by the lack of mortgage funds available: you needed to be a white man to buy a house with a mortgage, have an long standing relationship with the lender and have a large deposit.

None of those things have anything to do with immigration.

Agreed brexit wont stop the russian and gulf billionaires from buying up land. Contrary to what you might think our government actually welcomes this investment. It keeps the property market buyoant and stops it from imploding which keeps the banks that the government has bailed out from going under.

The government has no incentive to expand the housing stock. It's short term goal is to keep the inflated properties at their inflated levels. This means people who just got mortgages in 2007-2008 who are just 8 years into their 30 year mortgages dont suddenly fall into negative equity.

Negative equity makes it very easy for a borrower in difficult times to just say "I owe £180,000 on this property that's valued at £165,000, I'm dipping into my savings to pay my mortgage, should I just default on this and leave?"

This is done by welcoming investment for high end properies which has a knock on effect on all properties down the lower end of the market. As the scarcity increases prices.

kabayiri

Generali wrote: »

In some ways I sell intagibles to people and it is hard.
...

Failures in policy are very tangible though.

The difficulty will lie in being able to attach them to the OUT or IN campaign.

There is absolutely no doubt that the effects of immigration is very patchy. Some places have changed a lot; others barely at all.

It's hard to preach the benefits of immigration from ivory Westminster Towers without sounding out of touch and aloof. You have to do it on the ground, as it were.

The Calais Jungle contains a very small number of migrants in reality, but in PR terms it is a disaster.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

What do you think will be achieved by Brexit? What positive benefits will accrue to the UK and what risks do you see?

Let's keep it simple.

The ability for comparatively low wage people to buy houses was constrained by the lack of mortgage funds available: you needed to be a white man to buy a house with a mortgage, have an long standing relationship with the lender and have a large deposit.

None of those things have anything to do with immigration.

so you really do NOT think that population and hence supply and demand have any bearing on price?

.string.

To avoid me posting things literally twice, please refer to this

https://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/discussion/comment/70047584#Comment_70047584

kinger101

Generali wrote: »

Australia tolerates it in order to gain access to the EU markets.

The UK might very well find itself in the same position (although I doubt Scottish tinned tomatoes will be a hit any time soon).

Fruit and vegetables will never be a hit in Scotland.

System

I just wanted to add that I can't stand the word "Brexit".

Carry on.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

so you really do NOT think that population and hence supply and demand have any bearing on price?

I didn't say that. You are only looking at the demand side anyway. A larger population increases the productive capacity of a country and thus its ability to build infrastructure.

You have already decided that the UK should leave the EU to reduce immigration and perhaps for other reasons that you have not articulated. You are simply looking for reasons to justify that point of view now.

CLAPTON

Generali wrote: »

I didn't say that. You are only looking at the demand side anyway. A larger population increases the productive capacity of a country and thus its ability to build infrastructure.

You have already decided that the UK should leave the EU to reduce immigration and perhaps for other reasons that you have not articulated. You are simply looking for reasons to justify that point of view now.

OK
looking at both the supply and demand do you think that the
3 million foreign born people in london affects the price of property?

I see no realistic alternative to providing decent housing for people in London and the SE.

the UK is a relatively small but wonderful country that doesn't need more people.

Whilst it may be true that an increase in population may, in some circumstances, lead to an increase in productive capacity, there is no economic theory that says this leads to a better standard of living for the people there.
I'm sure NZ/Aus will see the logic of your arguments and allow unlimited immigration to make the (even more) rich and powerful.

It seems you have made up your mind, ignoring obvious economic theory, possibly because you no longer live here or there may be hidden reasons.

Generali

CLAPTON wrote: »

OK
looking at both the supply and demand do you think that the
3 million foreign born people in london affects the price of property?

I see no realistic alternative to providing decent housing for people in London and the SE.

the UK is a relatively small but wonderful country that doesn't need more people.

Whilst it may be true that an increase in population may, in some circumstances, lead to an increase in productive capacity, there is no economic theory that says this leads to a better standard of living for the people there.
I'm sure NZ/Aus will see the logic of your arguments and allow unlimited immigration to make the (even more) rich and powerful.

It seems you have made up your mind, ignoring obvious economic theory, possibly because you no longer live here or there may be hidden reasons.

Do you think that 3 million foreign born people in London increases or decreases the ability of Londoners to build houses?

http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3412.0/

28.1% of Australia's population was born overseas.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign-born_population_of_the_United_Kingdom#Size_of_the_foreign-born_population

About 12% of the UK's population was born overseas.

And please stop putting words in my mouth. It's getting very boring.