If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Who are the Irish, French and Spanish going to sell their produce to?

What are you going to eat?

Thrugelmir

HornetSaver wrote: »

I suspect the list will include the Irish, French and Spanish.

If that's the answer. Then why the concerns over trade deals when none are required.

HornetSaver

davomcdave wrote: »

What are you going to eat?

The same thing that most Brits eat.

Indian food. With or without British meat added.

Thrugelmir

davomcdave wrote: »

What are you going to eat?

Other countries produce "food". Nothing to stop UK production increasing either.

TrickyTree83

mayonnaise wrote: »

Absolutely.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/berenberg-eu-has-greater-bargaining-power-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3

The concept of the EU as a singular whole superstate could well cope better, but they're not. They are individual members states paying into a common budget.

Some pay more, others pay less.

Those that pay more are the ones who are exposed to the UK market, in almost all cases the UK is in the top 5 export markets for these net contributor countries.

Saying that net beneficiaries will veto without consequence is wrong and shows a lack of critical thinking. If you extrapolate steps ahead after such a deal it's clear as I've already stated that the EU 27 are intertwined. If the net contributors lose access to one of their top markets then their GDP will suffer, which means the EU budget suffers, which in turn means that the net beneficiaries get less money from the EU and then they suffer.

They are a set of dominoes all lined up ready to fall if there is a bad deal, with little scope for manoeuvre since trade deals are so difficult for the EU 27 to agree and ratify.

Anyone saying the UK has a weak hand is lying to everyone and themselves, including the politicians on the continent. I can understand why they would, of course you want to paint the best picture you possibly can, but as Thomas Sowell always used to say (and I'm paraphrasing here)

"it's not borne out by the data, it doesn't tally with the facts, they've started with a predetermined conclusion and picked data to support that conclusion."

Thrugelmir

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

The concept of the EU as a singular whole superstate could well cope better, but they're not. They are individual members states paying into a common budget.

Some pay more, others pay less.

Selling more product internally within the EU only has a genuine net benefit if external imports fall. German companies dominating markets will simply increase the imbalance of prosperity with the EU itself.

kabayiri

Judging by the mood on the radio earlier, I think the Gibraltar issue is a bit of an own goal.

It sets up a conflict tone between Spain and UK, and let's be honest, we have been here before.

The impact of Brexit could easily be focussed on a few countries who are in a vulnerable position.

Thrugelmir

kabayiri wrote: »

It sets up a conflict tone between Spain and UK, and let's be honest, we have been here before.

Complicates the EU's position somewhat. As immediately creates a barrier.

vivatifosi

kabayiri wrote: »

Judging by the mood on the radio earlier, I think the Gibraltar issue is a bit of an own goal.

It sets up a conflict tone between Spain and UK, and let's be honest, we have been here before.

The impact of Brexit could easily be focussed on a few countries who are in a vulnerable position.

It's crazy. Who loses out when Spain closes its border with Gibraltar? The c4,000 Spanish people in the towns just across the border who work in Gibraltar because of the high employment where they live. Brits will still go there. Cruise ships will still go there as it is a duty free port. The people of Gibraltar will just dig in with their siege mentality.

As of 2016, Gibraltar had the second lowest unemployment rate in the world, behind Qatar:
http://chronicle.gi/2016/09/govt-trumpets-low-unemployment-record/

Rinoa

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Complicates the EU's position somewhat. As immediately creates a barrier.

This was an EU Council decision, which requires at least an overall majority of EU member states.

We've long suspected the EU are going to play hardball, this confirms it. Looks like WTO terms, which is fine by me.