If we vote for Brexit what happens

prosaver

heres a good few good comments seems the best idea,

BigBlueSky • 15 hours ago
Given our massive trade deficit with the EU I would have thought that it was in our interest to have high tariffs, the higher the better. It will make imports very expensive allowing us to subsidise our exports with the import tariffs we impose on the goods and services we receive. The result should be our goods and services are no more expensive for our customers, imports should decline and if they don't there will be a big fat tariff surplus. It's worth doing just to see the Germans and French sweat. They cannot hold us to ransom because we will be free to buy from anywhere in the world. It's just a thought.
1 • Reply•Share ›
Avatar
Zalacain BigBlueSky • 12 hours ago
High tariffs never, ever work. The point of leaving the EU (from an economic point of view at least), is to have low tariffs and lots of free trade agreements with the rest of the world.
• Reply•Share ›
Avatar
BigBlueSky Zalacain • 9 hours ago
Duh! I wasn't suggesting high tariffs against everyone, only those who would look to apply them against our exports to them or attach conditions to free trade. I still think it would be a good idea to use them against Germany in the manner I described just for the fun of seeing them squirm

from the comment section in ..
https://www.spectator.co.uk/2017/04/britain-and-the-eu-probably-will-reach-a-trade-deal-heres-why/#

Fella

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Indeed.

Like the 'context' that all 27 states have a veto on any future post-departure EU trade deal with the UK.

Good point, what a good job we're out of such a flawed organization.

And no longer subject to the approval of 27 other states any time we want to trade with anybody else in the world.

mayonnaise

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Context is everything.

Absolutely.

"In all negotiations about the terms of Brexit, the bargaining position of the EU will be stronger than that of the UK. The oft-heard counterargument that, since the UK buys more than it sells to the EU, it has the stronger hand in the negotiations simply gets it the wrong way around," said Berenberg.
"The critical issue in negotiations is not absolute size, but relative size. The individual exposure of the four largest EU economies to the UK is relatively small compared to the UK’s exposure to the EU27."

"Whereas the UK earns about 12% of its GDP through exports to the EU, the EU27 earns 3% of its GDP through its exports to the UK (see Chart 1). The EU can cope without an EU-UK trade deal much easier than the UK can since less of its GDP depends on the flows of trade between the two economies.
"The same harsh reality applies to the EU financial services passport. While EU27 member’s usage of the passport to access the UK is greater than vice versa, the relative value of it still matters more for the UK."

http://uk.businessinsider.com/berenberg-eu-has-greater-bargaining-power-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3

Conrad

mayonnaise wrote: »

Absolutely.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/berenberg-eu-has-greater-bargaining-power-than-uk-in-brexit-talks-2017-3

You will see one Eurpoean business sector after another making increasingly loud noises. Recall plenty of link posts here such as the Bavarian car industry big wig saying how important it is thier UK trade is not hampered.

I don't see them shrugging shoulders and accepting collatoral damage in the real world.

gfplux

Why should Remainders accept the result.
Brexiteers have been campaigning during the last +40 years to get Britain out of the EU. Why would they be concerned if Remainders continue to campaign to stay in.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

I don't see them shrugging shoulders and accepting collatoral damage in the real world.

Here you go....

From the head of Germany's largest business group

The head of Germany’s largest business group has said German firms will not push for a free trade deal between the EU and Britain after Brexit, despite the number of cars and quantities of other goods they sell in the UK. Markus Kerber, head of the BDI, dismissed claims that German companies would not tolerate trade tariffs after Britain leaves, and said Germany’s relations with the rest of the bloc were more important.

“I have read a lot of articles in the British press saying Germany would be a relatively soft negotiator because 7.5% of German exports go to Britain,” Kerber told BBC Radio 4’s today programme. “Well, 7.5% is a big number – but 92.5% goes somewhere else.” ”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

And specifically on the topic of whether preserving the integrity of the single market and it's 4 freedoms were more important than a deal with the UK....

He said the level of “political ill-will” against Britain on the continent was “much, much bigger than economic rationality” – in part because the bloc’s single market and eastward expansion had been “core UK strategies”

Ultimately, Kerber said, there was “no difference, for the BDI, between the political view and the economic view”. Pointing to huge investments made by German carmakers in central Europe, he said: “For us, the single market, eastern Europe and freedom of movement – they are all one deal, that is inseparable.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

Crikey Conrad - the head of Germany's biggest business organisation has just refuted every claim you made about German businesses... :rotfl:

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Why should Remainders except the result.
Brexiteers have been campaigning during the last +40 years to get Britain out of the EU. Why would they be concerned if Remainders continue to campaign to stay in.

The world has changed somewhat in that time frame. Along with it the EU itself.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

What did people vote for?
A Federal Europe, a constant ceding of competences to Brussels?


Those 1975 voters you presumably admired are still the same people

Yes they did. The Treaty of Rome is very clear.

http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3Axy0023

It even contains the phrase 'ever closer union'. If you sign up to ever closer union then you are signing up to a union whose aim is to get ever closer. I'm not sure why you would expect anything else.

Conrad wrote: »

Sweden's UKIP++ lead the polls


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/anti-immigrant-sweden-democrats-yougov-poll-first-most-popular-refugee-a7649506.html

Yes they do. They have almost 24% of the expected vote although I was under the impression that you didn't think much of polls.

As with Wilders' party and the FN, generally these hard right parties don't get a sniff of power because they just can't work with anyone else. Unless these clowns manage to get something like 40%+ of the popular vote they won't get a place in Government.

As Blair realised, there's no point in having ideological purity if you don't have power. All that is left is empty posturing.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

Here you go....

From the head of Germany's largest business group


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

And specifically on the topic of whether preserving the integrity of the single market and it's 4 freedoms were more important than a deal with the UK....


https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/sep/29/german-business-leader-warning-brexit-trade-uk

Crikey Conrad - the head of Germany's biggest business organisation has just refuted every claim you made about German businesses... :rotfl:

And plenty of trade association heads are saying otherwise if you look back over last few months and weeks.

Remember I'm all for WTO and getting out quickly anyway, the WTO is a far more advanced beast now and we would collect double the tariffs the EU would and we can use those funds to reduce UK corporation tax.

Plus the currency fall means we currently enjoy a trading advantage anyway.

Barriers would be worked around in all manner of ways, as I always say I have no issues buying WTO services and products. Lloyds and others placing some staff in EU is fine, as many new jobs will be created in UK anyway as a result of our new found global autonomy.


Given your assertion Germans are so casual about loss of profits, why are they advertising so heavily accross our screens, what's the point of going to trouble of harvesting these additional UK profits if they are neither here nor there?

Tromking

Conrad wrote: »

Given your assertion Germans are so casual about loss of profits, why are they advertising so heavily across our screens, what's the point of going to trouble of harvesting these additional UK profits if they are neither here nor there?

Yes, I`m not sure its the way German`s do business to glibly retreat from a big sophisticated market like the UK and allow say Jaguar rather than BMW/Audi/Mercs rule the roost.