If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

Arklight wrote: »

You CBA to add much to this debate apart from conjecture and shilly shallying about two countries of which your direct experience amounts to the sum total of nothing.

We were talking about selling to China and India and you come back with tourism. Yes of course tourist spend is up - thanks to the colossal recklessness of Brexit the pound has had 1/4 of its value wiped out against the Yuan, so the 4% of Chinese people who are allowed to leave China by their own government can spend more.

Some points are made about China and India being systemically closed markets - accounting for why both combined barely totals 5% of our current exports - to which you respond with - abuse.

Being an angry Pollyanna will only get you so far in the world. Sadly.

It seems to have got you about as far as you are going to get in this debate.

Thank you Arklight, you mirror my own experience of the "Golden opportunities" to make business in India.
There is willingness on both sides, but, It never quite happens.

gfplux

suecoo66 wrote: »

We keep hearing what 'might' happen but nobody knows for certain !
Can't say I'm looking forward to the next 2yrs of hearing about it on the news constantly !!
I think that even after the negotiations are over and its finalised there will be teething problems and initial issues but will eventually settle down. Much the same as any new system or company that sets up.
I do think though that other countries could follow suit as there must be other's who aren't happy with the EU regulations and the EU over ruling on their own countries laws.

Yes, it's all in the future.
However I worry that too much intellectual power is being used up by both sides over Brexit and we all will miss the main chances.

gfplux

It was interesting and encouraging to hear David Davis say clearly on the BBC that the number 1 item on the agenda will be the status of EU National in Britain and Brits in other EU Countries.
While complex and difficult this first step could help end the fear and uncertainty for family's caught up in this problem. It should also help with the retention of skilled staff on both sides of the Channel.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

It was interesting and encouraging to hear David Davis say clearly on the BBC that the number 1 item on the agenda will be the status of EU National in Britain and Brits in other EU Countries.
While complex and difficult this first step could help end the fear and uncertainty for family's caught up in this problem. It should also help with the retention of skilled staff on both sides of the Channel.

In reality a non issue. Sets the tone for the tougher part of the negotiations though.

Conrad

Political elites are very much out of favour.

How would it go down amongst millions of European workers engaged in trade with Britain if political elites planned sacrificing thier jobs through trade hampering?

Thrugelmir

Conrad wrote: »

Political elites are very much out of favour.

How would it go down amongst millions of European workers engaged in trade with Britain if political elites planned sacrificing thier jobs through trade hampering?

The UK is becoming a diminishing part of their trade for many. After all they've markets closer to home. Given the size of the EU. As in the UK majority of businesses are SME's employing less than 50 people. Exporting is not a requirement.

Conrad

Thrugelmir wrote: »

The UK is becoming a diminishing part of their trade for many. After all they've markets closer to home. Given the size of the EU. As in the UK majority of businesses are SME's employing less than 50 people. Exporting is not a requirement.

None the less we are a significant market for certain sectors with millions of EU jobs dependant on trade with UK

Can't see these workers just playfully going along with being harmed by political elites

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

None the less we are a significant market for certain sectors with millions of EU jobs dependant on trade with UK

Can't see these workers just playfully going along with being harmed by political elites

The UK buys just 7% of EU exports - worth about 3% of EU GDP.

That can be replaced without lasting harm.

The EU on the other hand buys 45% of UK exports.... That's an existential threat to large sections of the UK economy.

Our hand is weak - and everyone knows it.

Masomnia

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

The UK buys just 7% of EU exports - worth about 3% of EU GDP.

That can be replaced without lasting harm.

The EU on the other hand buys 45% of UK exports.... That's an existential threat to large sections of the UK economy.

Our hand is weak - and everyone knows it.

I don't doubt that.

But it does beg the question why would the EU want to de-liberalise trade? And thereby make itself poorer.

And if it does want to de-liberalise trade, why are you so keen to stay a member if that's what they believe in?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Masomnia wrote: »

I don't doubt that.

But it does beg the question why would the EU want to de-liberalise trade? And thereby make itself poorer.

And if it does want to de-liberalise trade, why are you so keen to stay a member if that's what they believe in?

Quite obviously the EU is more than happy for Britain to continue enjoying the benefits of the single market and it's trade benefits - provided we continue to be a member - pay the membership fees and follow the same rules as everyone else.

And equally obviously no rational person should expect as good a deal from your club after you leave and stop paying your dues as the deal you get whilst still a member.