If we vote for Brexit what happens

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

BBC Radio 4 Today show examines the reality of WTO goods flowing into Britain;
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08k19r1#play

• 1.34.30
• Zoe Conway reporting

Felixtowe.
To the left a cargo ship from China - Taurus
To the right a ship from Netherlands

Paul Davey – head of Corporate Affairs Felixtowe – commenting on the WTO goods coming off Taurus - ‘97% of goods are pre-cleared, no delays – unloaded and sent on immediately’.


Commenting on the implications of a future WTO regime with the EU;

‘We don’t see a reason why there should not be frictionless trade’.

If we are getting all that and we are part of Europe as well, then why are we leaving?

I honestly don't understand what Brexit people think will be better or easier when we leave the common market.

Conrad

davomcdave wrote: »

Each time the UK makes a law on standards, for example my much mocked example about using imperial measures, that differs from the EU's standards it becomes a little bit harder to trade with the single market.



touching faith in the ability of the government not to screw things up.

to cut British companies off from markets by error, omission or balls up.

As with Clegg and Salmond on the QT special last night, the assumption is that we the British will not be able to manage our own affairs, whereas other independent nations manage perfectly well to trade with Europe very successfully.


Everything they uttered placed us in the position of the weak petitioner that will fail and cannot be trusted to make its own good decisions, whereas mighty Brussels holds all the power and all the good sense.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

Someone with a different opinion to you isn't necessarily a troll.

From this Commons Briefing Paper the gap is about £3bn.

http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-7847/CBP-7847.pdf

The summary is in this article here

http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-eu-members-net-contributions-and-net-funding-2016-12

It appears that France is doing quite well out of their membership.

Oh I see - not a troll but you have decided to be less than honest in your interpretation of figures, eh?
By using "average" rather than current and by using a briefing paper rather than an official EU statement.
A briefing paper which does not BTW include any figures for payments TO the EU.
I have read the report.
Show us all where it shows the gap to be £3 billion for the last available year or (better) 2015 please?

The EU Parliaments figures are complete.
Also here are Fullfact's figures - for the last available year for which statistics are available:

In 2015 the UK government paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.

https://fullfact.org/europe/our-eu-membership-fee-55-million/

Conrad

• Arklight wrote: »

  If we are getting all that and we are part of Europe as well, then why are we leaving?
  
  I honestly don't understand what Brexit people think will be better or easier when we leave the common market.

  
  
  
  
  So I've explained this to already yet you ask again?
  
  
  REASONS FOR BREXIT;
  
  
  
  
  After Brexit our trade with EU will continue in same volume but without paying c£3 billion every 10 days (edit, 'weeks' thank you Mayo) in club fee
  
  
  Free to make the most of new global trading alliances (90% of growth over next 10-15 yrs is predicted to come from outside of Europe
  http://uk.businessinsider.com/brexit-once-in-a-generation-opportunity-to-embrace-emerging-markets-2017-1
  
  
  Autonomy = prosperity. Being the architects of our own policy means tailor made UK plc - responsive, nimble, enterprise friendly, distinguishing us from the old fashioned lumbering EU where growth has been so poor
  
  
  Sovereignty and accountability - no more passing the buck, we will all know exactly who is to blame if for example mass immigration is not tackled to our satisfaction
  
  
  Re-orientating ourselves to the global stage, taking our own seat at the global tables which scuplt many of the rules handed down to Brussels

Arklight

Conrad wrote: »

What do your make of Frances long years of very high unemployment and low growth?

According to this World Bank chart, the French economy lagged the British one by about 1% on average:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG?end=2015&locations=FR-GB&start=1992

But is now growing sharply while the UK is falling sharply. France has now overtaken us as the 5th largest global economy.

As both countries have been members of the EU for decades I'm not sure what a comparison with France would prove. The briefing paper I linked to showed them as being a large net beneficiary of EU funds, which is what I meant by "doing well".

You could say the UK has been doing well from its own membership too. There is no non EU UK to compare us to.

All other European countries are members or have aligned themselves with EU legislation and free movement to keep access to the single market. Apart from the Swiss I suppose.

Canada is part of NAFTA (not especially happily but they don't see another alternative), Australia is a fundamentally different economy to us.

The closest analogue I can think of is that we might look at ourselves as a kind of European Thailand. Nominally independent but with a weak currency, a high reliance on foreign investment and tourism, and a close proximity to a much larger power. China in their case, the EU and Russia with ours.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Arklight wrote: »

France has now overtaken us as the 5th largest global economy.

Show us where states that?

Uk remains @ 5 here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

Here:
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022415/worlds-top-10-economies.asp

Here:
http://statisticstimes.com/economy/countries-by-projected-gdp.php

Here:
https://knoema.com/tlcnrcg/gdp-by-country-world-largest-economies-2016

Conrad

Arklight wrote: »

The closest analogue I can think of is that we might look at ourselves as a kind of European Thailand.


Nominally independent but with a weak currency, a high reliance on foreign investment and tourism, and a close proximity to a much larger power. China in their case, the EU and Russia with ours.

Like Clegg and Salmond, some have a defeatist notion of a weak and impotent Britain like some indifferent jellyfish on a tide being buffeted about by reality.


They will come to see that this gloomy vision was all built on nothing but impotence and fear of change.

mayonnaise

Conrad wrote: »

After Brexit our trade with EU will continue in same volume but without paying c£3 billion every 10 days in club fee

You're doing it again, Conrad.

StevieJ

Conrad wrote: »

• 
  
  
  
  
  So I've explained this to already yet you ask again?
  
  
  REASONS FOR BREXIT;
  
  
  
  
  After Brexit our trade with EU will continue in same volume but without paying c£3 billion every 10 days in club fee

OMG, we better get out fast, didn't realise it was that much, no wonder we have Multi trillion National debt.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

The French economy:

At the start of his presidency in 2012, Mr Hollande was optimistic France would fully recover from the downturn. However, as the chart below shows, despite modest growth the country has underperformed relative to the likes of Germany, the UK and the US.

https://www.ft.com/content/c33bafde-fe68-11e6-8d8e-a5e3738f9ae4

Charts from Moody's:
France.
https://www.economy.com/dismal/countries/IFRA

UK.
https://www.economy.com/dismal/countries/IGBR

Surprise!
These official figures show the UK to be far ahead of France.