If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I think we'll get a deal, but accepting what you say is true - I completely agree regarding the tariffs and the imports being higher than the exports.

But the EU is not the only place in the world where food is produced. Food produced within the EU is at a much higher cost than food produced outside of the EU. So long as we check and uphold standards on our end the UK consumer will see a drop in prices once the tariffs are removed for the other 93% of the world with the same standards that we enforce today.

I can see domestic food production being increasingly used domestically, I think I recall JRM saying we're 55% self sufficient? So the rest that we import doesn't have to come from the EU anymore, at the moment importing from the EU is the most cost effective solution because of the tariffs the EU impose on others.

Importing food from Africa and Asia in large quantities is likely to be unviable simply because of the distances involved. If you are interested in the economic theory behind this look up the gravity theory of trade. Yeah I know, economists huh.

Also the EU tends to 'dump' food on non-EU countries. This means that non-EU countries get their food subsidised by EU taxpayers. Incredibly if you go to Aldi in Australia it is cheaper to buy Italian tinned tomatoes (59c) than Australian ones (99c)!

davomcdave

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

I can't buy into that view, businesses will be able to sell into the EU so long as they comply with EU regulation whatever that may be, just like they do in countries not currently in the EU who sell into the single market. I doubt measurements will be a problem. These are not insurmountable problems at a local business level so I fail to see how trade would stop because of it.

They are not insurmountable problems but they are harder to solve than tariffs or so I understand from having spoken to people that trade outside the Single Market.

A tariff of 10% or whatever is easy to quantify and either makes it worth or not worth your while selling in that country. Most likely it isn't really a problem unless you're in a really low margin business in which case transport costs probably kill you anyway. Having to sell in feet rather than metres is a PITA which probably means a second production line or at least packing line. It also means that your 10,000 litre batch is 264 10 gallon lots plus a little under 2 gallons that you have to pay to dispose of rather than 250 40 litre packs.

Leaving the Single Market either means adding a whole load of inefficiencies that slowly chip away at the UK's economy or following the EU rules while having no say in their makeup. Oh well, you lot voted for it and now you have to live with it.:T

vivatifosi

setmefree2 wrote: »

Interesting opinion



http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2017/03/anywheres-vs-somewheres-split-made-brexit-inevitable

Thanks setmefree2, the book sounds so interesting I ordered myself a copy. Will post a review once I've read it.

kabayiri

davomcdave wrote: »

...
Also the EU tends to 'dump' food on non-EU countries. This means that non-EU countries get their food subsidised by EU taxpayers. Incredibly if you go to Aldi in Australia it is cheaper to buy Italian tinned tomatoes (59c) than Australian ones (99c)!

Well, if we become a non-EU country then they can dump food on us!

Seems consistent to me.

davomcdave

kabayiri wrote: »

Well, if we become a non-EU country then they can dump food on us!

Seems consistent to me.

It's great if you're a consumer. Not so good if you're a farmer of course.

There is no chance whatsoever that the EU countries will have free trade with the UK in food unless the UK stays in the Single Market which means embracing freedom of movement.

I can't see the UK allowing freedom of movement to continue which means no more Single Market access. It's probably not going to be a good time to be a farmer. Oh well, something something, something great opportunities for the future.

Just because you import stuff doesn't mean you can force the seller to do your bidding. If you net import food the seller has you over a barrel. Just as well you all thought this Brexit thing through so carefully in advance.:j

TrickyTree83

davomcdave wrote: »

It's great if you're a consumer. Not so good if you're a farmer of course.

There is no chance whatsoever that the EU countries will have free trade with the UK in food unless the UK stays in the Single Market which means embracing freedom of movement.

I can't see the UK allowing freedom of movement to continue which means no more Single Market access. It's probably not going to be a good time to be a farmer. Oh well, something something, something great opportunities for the future.

Just because you import stuff doesn't mean you can force the seller to do your bidding. If you net import food the seller has you over a barrel. Just as well you all thought this Brexit thing through so carefully in advance.:j

There will be a free trade deal between the UK and the EU, I can assure you.

Ireland is stressing out about it, as will France, Germany, Spain and Italy. We buy more from the EU than they buy from us right? Well the concentration of those imports are mainly in the affluent older EU members close to us. The members who call the shots, who make up the EU budget, etc... I read your posts like you're having a panic attack over it as you've not properly thought it through on a macro-economic scale, you're telling us to worry over the use of imperial vs metric measurements when we primarily use metric and teach metric anyway.

I voted to leave for trade, to trade freely with the EU but also with more of the other 93% of the world. I'd be ok with FoM in the EFTA, but a bilateral free trade deal with the EU will be fine too.

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

I don't think there is much chance we won't get a FTA with the EU. However, imho what matters more in the event of no deal is that we have a UK schedule with the WTO and a great trade deal with the US. The economy will then just rebalance towards trading with the US. That is the choice for Europe.

Before you know the cars on our roads will be mostly American rather than European.

How long does it take to ship surface freight from the US these days? Cruise liners can do it in about 6 days but I've no idea about cargo ships.

setmefree2

Originally Posted by davomcdave
If you net import food the seller has you over a barrel. Just as well you all thought this Brexit thing through so carefully in advance.:j

How so? You can just reduce the import tariff to zero. So, for example, if you are a net importer of pineapples you reduce the tariff to zero - as we can't produce pineapples, so we have no home market to protect. If you want to protect your home markets in say lamb you have a higher tariff.

At the moment we have many high tariffs on food we don't produce to protect other EU countries who do produce these goods - so we can reduce all tariffs on those goods to zero.

(By the way, if Scotland leaves the union we can have high tariffs on Scottish Whiskey to protect our home grown Welsh and English whiskeys ;-)

Sapphire

Herzlos wrote: »

How long does it take to ship surface freight from the US these days? Cruise liners can do it in about 6 days but I've no idea about cargo ships.

Isn't the odd thing shipped from China (and other countries in the Far East)? Doesn't appear to be too much of an issue there. :cool:

setmefree2

Sapphire wrote: »

Isn't the odd thing shipped from China (and other countries in the Far East)? Doesn't appear to be too much of an issue there. :cool:

https://sea-distances.org/

Container ships can average 20knots


Container Shipping rates.

http://moverdb.com/container-shipping/

Nearly all clothing comes from far a field too - India, Bangladesh, etc

A lot of stuff in TK Maxx is American.