If we vote for Brexit what happens

TrickyTree83

Ballard wrote: »

Why on earth would I be comforted by the posts on a forum such as this? You have made it perfectly clear that you feel that we will get a good deal. I know that. I've read your posts already. I hope to goodness that you're right. I have no desire to get into dull arguments about it so let's just wait to see what happens in 25 months time.

Why didn't you say that in the first place?

I don't think people such as myself are necessarily optimists, or deluded as some might say, I'd say it's pragmatic.

One particular point for example, exports are produced by people with jobs. We import much more than we export to the EU, we are a large market for particular EU countries. Should the exports from those countries begin to decrease significantly because the deal doesn't support EU countries well enough those jobs involved in exporting to the UK are at risk during a tentative EU economic recovery.

They won't want to harm themselves to harm us, and the same goes for the UK too. There will be some chest beating and fist waving from some (Hollande) but ultimately common sense will win out and we'll have a deal in place because that is the win-win situation, good for all. I wouldn't want to make the mistake of presuming the UK is the only party interested in securing a free trade deal.

posh*spice

Never forget "ceteris paribus" - the world economy is doing great - everything is going to be fine....

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

We import much more than we export to the EU, .

We import more Goods....

But we export much more in Services to the EU than we import from the EU.... And Services are 70% of the UK economy.

vivatifosi

posh*spice wrote: »

Never forget "ceteris paribus" - the world economy is doing great - everything is going to be fine....

Hmmm... not sure I'd be relying on ceteris paribus at the moment. There's too much scope for curved balls. Be it Donald Trump or the rise of nationalism, or the strain on international treaties. I don't think we can rely on all things being equal.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

setmefree2 wrote: »

While a “zero-for-zero” interim tariff deal may be legally feasible according to the rule-book, it is also highly unlikely that the remaining EU 27 countries would agree to such an arrangement without significant concessions from the U.K. government on budget contributions and free movement of people. There is also no obligation under WTO rules for either side to agree to tariffs of zero.

That might be possible.

Mayhem gets to claim she's out of the single market and EU - but also gets a long term interim deal for trade, at the cost of some slightly modified version of FoM and Contributions.

It's pragmatic anyway...

vivatifosi

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That might be possible.

Mayhem gets to claim she's out of the single market and EU - but also gets a long term interim deal for trade, at the cost of some slightly modified version of FoM and Contributions.

It's pragmatic anyway...

That's an interesting point H. It would also can kick the problems into someone else's prime minister role as well as keeping Scotland in the union, while fulfilling the mandate to leave the EU.

It's not as if political fudges are unknown here.

kabayiri

vivatifosi wrote: »

That's an interesting point H. It would also can kick the problems into someone else's prime minister role as well as keeping Scotland in the union, while fulfilling the mandate to leave the EU.

It's not as if political fudges are unknown here.

How many times have we seen a constructed solution which superficially at least seems to meet the demands of all parties.

That's politics.

The devil as always will be in the detail.

I actually think Brexit will be a *good* thing for the EU. It is a massive wake up call. The EU can no longer assume that everyone is happy with the direction it is going in.

Growth in many parts of the world has outstripped the EU growth in recent decades. Places like India and China have not needed to be in local geographic unions to see dramatic growth.

Maybe the EU needs a reboot. EU 2.0 anyone?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

kabayiri wrote: »

I actually think Brexit will be a *good* thing for the EU. It is a massive wake up call. The EU can no longer assume that everyone is happy with the direction it is going in.

Given the UK always had huge exemptions to the direction the EU was going in, and was given even more in the pre referendum negotiations, I don't think the EU was under any illusions that the British 'problem child' was happy with it's direction.

So I agree Brexit will be a good thing for the EU - they get to progress the necessary further integration without a UK veto threat always holding them back.

Growth in many parts of the world has outstripped the EU growth in recent decades.

And yet countries like the UK and Germany have seen world leading growth as members of the EU.

While countries like Greece that were always problematic outside the EU have unsurprisingly remained problematic within it.

The EU is an extraordinary opportunity for success, but it's not a guarantee of success, participants within it still have to actually be dynamic and well governed at a national level in order to succeed.

Places like India and China have not needed to be in local geographic unions to see dramatic growth.

As developing countries able to sell their wares around the world purely on the basis of being cheap I'd expect not.

But it's much harder as a developed nation - when you can't rely on $1 a day labour costs for workers.

That's where having the best of both worlds - full membership of the gold standard of 'trade deals', the single market - plus the ability to trade around the world - has been of such benefit to us.

Maybe the EU needs a reboot. EU 2.0 anyone?

Nothing ever stays the same.

The EU will continue to evolve with or without us.

mrginge

vivatifosi wrote: »

That's an interesting point H. It would also can kick the problems into someone else's prime minister role as well as keeping Scotland in the union, while fulfilling the mandate to leave the EU.

It's not as if political fudges are unknown here.

That wouldn't be a political fudge. A transitional arrangement is, and always was, the most sensible outcome.

davomcdave

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/uk-government-considers-10-year-zero-tariff-interim-post-brexit-trade-deal-eu-report-2017-3


http://www.politico.eu/article/britain-10-year-interim-zero-for-zero-trade-deal-brexit/

Interesting piece, thank you. If there's one thing the EU is good at it's the pragmatic compromise.