If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

Amazed to see all the Remoaners out in force this morning....Tony Blair, Nick Clegg, Nicky Morgan, Stephen Kinnock, (Robert Peston doesn't even attempt to do balance) and even John Major...

.....I fast forwarded through a lot of it....

....so that's 3 extra hours of my life I just got back.....

setmefree2

A sensible Brexit deal is more probable than you think

Wolfgang Munchau

The debate about Brexit is largely informed by confirmation bias. If you are a Brexiter, you are likely to ignore any information that leaving the EU would be bad for the economy, or that the negotiations are going to be fiendishly difficult. If you are a Remainer, you keep doubling down with exaggerated warnings about economic doom. You may also say the EU will deny Britain a decent exit deal. You will do so because you are angry, or because you are already looking forward to your moment of sweet revenge — when you can say: “I told you so”. And there are still some people who hope — or fear — that the whole thing can still be undone. It cannot.

There is talk, unconfirmed, about €60bn. This is financially not in the same league as the great fights of the past. The problem about the exit bill is lack of legal basis and precedent. The treaties are silent; there is no rule book. The problems are solvable as long as both sides adhere to a simple principle: that Brexit should be an opportunity neither for the EU to earn a quick buck, nor for the UK to dodge the direct costs to the union that will result from its decision. While it is only fair for the UK to pay for the costs of Brexit, it would not be fair for the EU to extract a price for market access. Fortunately, there is an ample choice of numbers between zero and 60bn.

There are 18 months for the two sides to discuss the details of the Article 50 exit procedure. This will not include a trade deal, only the terms of the divorce. Separately, the EU and the UK will negotiate an interim arrangement that would remain in place until a final trade pact is negotiated and ratified. The interim agreement would take effect after Brexit takes legal force.

Every political process is prone to accidents. But I am really struggling to identify a single insurmountable obstacle to a deal. My advice, especially for angry Remain supporters, is to take a deep breath, accept that Brexit will happen and focus on how to reconnect with the EU after Brexit. There is much to play for.

https://www.ft.com/content/5b7690ce-0b08-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43

setmefree2

REPORT: The UK is secretly considering a 10-year interim post-Brexit trade deal with the EU

According to a new report from Politico, the UK is secretly investigating the possibility of a "Plan B" with the EU: A ten-year interim deal while everything else is hashed out.

http://nordic.businessinsider.com/uk-government-considers-10-year-zero-tariff-interim-post-brexit-trade-deal-eu-report-2017-3

LONDON — British trade officials are discreetly exploring a 10-year interim arrangement with the European Union in case a trade deal is not reached during Britain’s exit negotiations.
Officials from the U.K.’s Department for International Trade are investigating the possibility of keeping tariffs between Britain and the EU at zero as part of an interim arrangement that could last up to 10 years, allowing more time for a full trade deal to be negotiated after Britain has left the bloc, according to sources familiar with the discussions that have taken place at the World Trade Organization.

Under a little-known WTO clause, the U.K. and Brussels would be allowed a “reasonable length of time” after Brexit to agree a free-trade deal before trade law would force both sides to impose the same tariffs on each other as they do on everybody else. Such a transitional deal would allay fears about an impending cliff edge in March 2019, when Britain is set to crash out of the single market and face the EU’s steep external tariffs on goods ranging from meat to cars.

The provision, set out in Article 24 of the WTO’s General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, can only be challenged by other countries if the temporary continuation of existing tariffs is not applied to all trade. This makes a special deal for finance or the car industry less likely as part of any interim arrangement.

According to Geneva-based officials, British trade experts are working on the understanding that a decade would constitute a “reasonable” timeframe to stay on special trading terms with the EU. They are supported by the WTO rules, which state that any interim agreement should “exceed 10 years only in exceptional cases.”

The U.K. Department for Exiting the European Union said it did not recognize that British officials were looking into Article 24, but refused to formally deny it. An official stressed that the position remained that the U.K. would pursue a full and comprehensive free-trade deal within the two years of exit negotiations with the European Commission’s Michel Barnier.


While a “zero-for-zero” interim tariff deal may be legally feasible according to the rule-book, it is also highly unlikely that the remaining EU 27 countries would agree to such an arrangement without significant concessions from the U.K. government on budget contributions and free movement of people. There is also no obligation under WTO rules for either side to agree to tariffs of zero.

The Geneva-based official who spoke to POLITICO on condition of anonymity said the idea for a 10-year deal that set tariffs at zero was gaining ground. “What’s important for you to take away is there is not a great swell of bitterness towards the British in Geneva,” the official said. “The attitude is nothing like what it it is Brussels. I don’t think anyone wants to see trade disrupted between WTO members.”
The official added that an interim agreement that allowed existing tariff-free trade to continue is likely to be accepted by the “vast majority” of WTO members. “Nothing precludes a member challenging anything, but you have to show some injury — that you are materially worse off — for it not to be spurious,” he said. “It’s hard to see how that might be the case"

http://www.politico.eu/article/britain-10-year-interim-zero-for-zero-trade-deal-brexit/

setmefree2

As one Brexit hurdle is cleared, the doom-mongers erect another. Before last June’s referendum, the Treasury warned ad nauseam that voting to leave the European Union would spark “an immediate and profound economic shock”. Since that vote, with the economy holding up regardless, we have seen endless legal battles and parliamentary shenanigans stopping the Prime Minister from even getting the Brexit ball rolling.
Now, with the law allowing Article 50 to be triggered finally passed, the doom machine has been programmed anew. The Brexit-blockers’ new crie de coeur is the cataclysmic impact of leaving the EU with “no deal”, the dystopian wasteland the UK would become if we traded instead under “World Trade Organisation rules”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/03/18/trading-world-trade-organisation-rules-brexit-would-no-hardship/

Ballard

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Whereas conversely I have come to be amused more and more by the blind panic and facetious attitudes seen in some of the remain voters on this thread, using such terminology as "cliff edge" and "train wreck" despite all evidence so far being to the contrary.

I genuinely believe these to be wrong and note that this will clearly have a massive effect on my wellbeing as well as that of my child who will not yet be a teenager when we leave the EU.

Despite some doubts I am capable of realising that the opportunities afforded by a life outside the constraints of a domineering EU far outweigh the restrictions implemented by membership.

I wonder if this post too will be preserved for posterity, for the sake of balance?

Perhaps you'd like to provide evidence that we will be better off once we leave. Actually don't bother looking as there cannot possibly be any evidence either way because we haven't even triggered A50 yet. It's all very well the likes of Trickytree83 assuring everyone that a deal will be in place in time for us leaving the EU but, and I may be wrong here, I doubt that they are due to play much of a part in the negotiations.

The only thing for certain is that in roughly two years time we will leave the EU. At the moment we do not have a trade deal in place but I grant you that it would be impossible at this stage for a deal to have been brokered.

As I've said countless times I desperately want to be wrong so that we can enjoy the fruits of life outside the EU but nothing that I've read gives me a great deal of hope that we will be better off outside. In some ways I wish that I had the boundless optimism of a Leaver so that I didn't even have to consider the possibility of being wrong.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Ballard wrote: »

In some ways I wish that I had the boundless optimism of a Leaver so that I didn't even have to consider the possibility of being wrong.

Glass half empty argument?

Some people await the next health scare with an almost gleeful expectation; toast which is just a little too brown is a danger or Nutella is a carcinogen, etc. etc. etc.
I suspect many of the most vociferous pro-remain advocates have a similar viewpoint.

Myself I prefer to base my opinion on facts and evidence or - failing the availability of these - common sense.

The facts so far are that the impending doom upon even daring to vote for a Brexit were lies. We had no snap election. There has been no WW3. There have been no emergency tax rises or spending cuts. Just as a few examples.

The evidence so far is that economic forecasts by all the major participants (from the IMF to our own [anti-Brexit I should add] CBI) point to a growing UK economy - as opposed to a stagnant EU. The evidence so far is that large companies continue to invest in the UK.

Common sense so far shows that even recently and despite the continuation of "project fear", the current rate of inflation in the UK at 1.8% is less than that of the Eurozone at 2%.
Common sense so far shows that our exports are increasing since the referendum.

Now okay, yes I agree that it is "early days".
But it's not as if we in the UK or those in Europe or indeed the rest of the world think that Brexit isn't going ahead, is it?
Or for any of these to have at least considered any effects of Brexit, good or bad?

Now you may describe this as optimism if you wish.
But that is not so.
I look carefully left and right, considering my actions carefully before crossing any road.
I do not just blindly amble across and hope for the best.
Conversely I do not stand at the kerb shivering in fear at what may happen if I try to cross the road.

This is called realism and is therefore neither optimism nor fatalism.

gfplux

davomcdave wrote: »

It's great if you're a consumer. Not so good if you're a farmer of course.

There is no chance whatsoever that the EU countries will have free trade with the UK in food unless the UK stays in the Single Market which means embracing freedom of movement.

I can't see the UK allowing freedom of movement to continue which means no more Single Market access. It's probably not going to be a good time to be a farmer. Oh well, something something, something great opportunities for the future.

Just because you import stuff doesn't mean you can force the seller to do your bidding. If you net import food the seller has you over a barrel. Just as well you all thought this Brexit thing through so carefully in advance.:j

if it's not going to be a good time to be a farmer what will it be a good time for.
Hopefully you can provide a long list as otherwise why leave the EU.

gfplux

Sapphire wrote: »

Isn't the odd thing shipped from China (and other countries in the Far East)? Doesn't appear to be too much of an issue there. :cool:

If time is an issue, then airfreight = expensive, Container ship = cheap but there is a new midway price/time that is train from Chine. It is already happening and could bring great opportunities.

TrickyTree83

Ballard wrote: »

Perhaps you'd like to provide evidence that we will be better off once we leave. Actually don't bother looking as there cannot possibly be any evidence either way because we haven't even triggered A50 yet. It's all very well the likes of Trickytree83 assuring everyone that a deal will be in place in time for us leaving the EU but, and I may be wrong here, I doubt that they are due to play much of a part in the negotiations.

The only thing for certain is that in roughly two years time we will leave the EU. At the moment we do not have a trade deal in place but I grant you that it would be impossible at this stage for a deal to have been brokered.

As I've said countless times I desperately want to be wrong so that we can enjoy the fruits of life outside the EU but nothing that I've read gives me a great deal of hope that we will be better off outside. In some ways I wish that I had the boundless optimism of a Leaver so that I didn't even have to consider the possibility of being wrong.

Give us a list of reasons why we won't get a deal, and I and others will try our best to answer and reply with a list of reasons why we think we will, I guess that would assuage some angst.

Ballard

TrickyTree83 wrote: »

Give us a list of reasons why we won't get a deal, and I and others will try our best to answer and reply with a list of reasons why we think we will, I guess that would assuage some angst.

Why on earth would I be comforted by the posts on a forum such as this? You have made it perfectly clear that you feel that we will get a good deal. I know that. I've read your posts already. I hope to goodness that you're right. I have no desire to get into dull arguments about it so let's just wait to see what happens in 25 months time.