If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

CKhalvashi wrote: »

On the day Theresa May says 'Britain must be a country that rewards talent and hard work, not background and connections' George Osbourne is appointed editor of the Evening Standard.


Welcome to Tory Britain.....

Can't stand him, creep.

setmefree2

A senior EU source said, however, that the commission would not land May with a large bill in the early stages of the talks, in recognition of both the hostile reaction that would be likely in the House of Commons and the difficulty in calculating the appropriate sum until the UK has actually left the union.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/17/eu-sources-may-must-mention-uk-financial-settlement-in-article-50-notice

The commission had expected May to make the notification on 14 March, but now believes she will write to Donald Tusk, the president of the European council, on 27 March.

Although member states believe a letter of notification at the end of March will condemn the opening of negotiations to be delayed until June, the commission hopes to speed things along and start negotiations in the middle of May.
Alongside agreement about the methodology used to calculate the UK’s liabilities, there will attempts to find common ground on the rights of EU nationals in the UK, and UK nationals in the EU.
Only then, a senior source said, would it be possible for the EU and the UK to scope out how a free trade deal might work. The commission will not negotiate in earnest on that until the UK has formally withdrawn, making a transitional agreement essential for key parts of the British economy, including the financial services sector, which relies on passporting rights to work across the continent.
However, it is understood that the commission’s Brexit negotiating team, headed by Michel Barnier, is currently spending much of its time preparing for the event of the UK leaving the EU without a deal.

vivatifosi

It's a bit concerning that Barnier says that he has back up plans in case of a no deal but Davis doesn't.

setmefree2

vivatifosi wrote: »

It's a bit concerning that Barnier says that he has back up plans in case of a no deal but Davis doesn't.

I don't think there is much chance we won't get a FTA with the EU. However, imho what matters more in the event of no deal is that we have a UK schedule with the WTO and a great trade deal with the US. The economy will then just rebalance towards trading with the US. That is the choice for Europe.

Before you know the cars on our roads will be mostly American rather than European.

vivatifosi

I am not impressed by Davis though. He seems a weak link.

I don't think the cars on our road will be American though, they are rubbish and unsuited to our needs. I think it is far more likely that we switch to Asian cars, especially now the likes of Kia do their styling in Europe and you don't feel like you are driving that something that should belong to Noddy.

I agree that I think we will have a deal... It is in nobody's interests not to have one. Hopefully there is a layer of competence below Davis.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

I am not impressed by Davis though. He seems a weak link.

I don't think the cars on our road will be American though, they are rubbish and unsuited to our needs. I think it is far more likely that we switch to Asian cars, especially now the likes of Kia do their styling in Europe and you don't feel like you are driving that something that should belong to Noddy.

I agree that I think we will have a deal... It is in nobody's interests not to have one. Hopefully there is a layer of competence below Davis.

I think it's unlikely that there will be a deal. You've got a little over 2 years to come to an agreement. Negotiations for TTIP started in 1990 and still there isn't a deal. If you trade under WTO rules then that implies import tariffs of about 40% on food and other agricultural products (the actual tariff calculation is complex as you can see)

The UK imports £38.5 billion-worth of food and drink, exporting £18.5 billion.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515048/food-farming-stats-release-07apr16.pdf

That doesn't look pretty for the UK consumer.

You can also be sure that there will be those in the EU, including some very powerful countries, that will want an element of punishment for the UK leaving the EU pour encourager les autres. That is something that will stand in the way of a trade deal. Countries like Poland that have large populations in the UK are likely to want to maintain freedom of movement: remittances from the UK to Poland are about 0.25% of Polish GDP and will be a major source of family income for a lot of Polish families.

If a deal to leave only covers areas that the EU can decide on then it can be voted on by the European Parliament and then sent to the Council of Ministers where it needs to receive a qualified majority. This means that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece can block any deal and they often vote as a group. Do you reckon May is going to sell Gibraltar down the Suwanee or do we get No Deal?

If a deal is reached that touches any issue reserved for member states then the UK will need the unanimous agreement of all 27 remaining EU countries. That will never happen in 2 years and probably not in 20.

The mechanics of getting a deal are too complex for it to be likely. Never say never of course and we shall see what happens in due course but if you work through the process then, regardless of what is best for the member states and the UK the most likely outcome by far is No Deal and train wreck Brexit.

TrickyTree83

davomcdave wrote: »

I think it's unlikely that there will be a deal. You've got a little over 2 years to come to an agreement. Negotiations for TTIP started in 1990 and still there isn't a deal. If you trade under WTO rules then that implies import tariffs of about 40% on food and other agricultural products (the actual tariff calculation is complex as you can see)

The UK imports £38.5 billion-worth of food and drink, exporting £18.5 billion.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515048/food-farming-stats-release-07apr16.pdf

That doesn't look pretty for the UK consumer.

You can also be sure that there will be those in the EU, including some very powerful countries, that will want an element of punishment for the UK leaving the EU pour encourager les autres. That is something that will stand in the way of a trade deal. Countries like Poland that have large populations in the UK are likely to want to maintain freedom of movement: remittances from the UK to Poland are about 0.25% of Polish GDP and will be a major source of family income for a lot of Polish families.

If a deal to leave only covers areas that the EU can decide on then it can be voted on by the European Parliament and then sent to the Council of Ministers where it needs to receive a qualified majority. This means that Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece can block any deal and they often vote as a group. Do you reckon May is going to sell Gibraltar down the Suwanee or do we get No Deal?

If a deal is reached that touches any issue reserved for member states then the UK will need the unanimous agreement of all 27 remaining EU countries. That will never happen in 2 years and probably not in 20.

The mechanics of getting a deal are too complex for it to be likely. Never say never of course and we shall see what happens in due course but if you work through the process then, regardless of what is best for the member states and the UK the most likely outcome by far is No Deal and train wreck Brexit.

I think we'll get a deal, but accepting what you say is true - I completely agree regarding the tariffs and the imports being higher than the exports.

But the EU is not the only place in the world where food is produced. Food produced within the EU is at a much higher cost than food produced outside of the EU. So long as we check and uphold standards on our end the UK consumer will see a drop in prices once the tariffs are removed for the other 93% of the world with the same standards that we enforce today.



I can see domestic food production being increasingly used domestically, I think I recall JRM saying we're 55% self sufficient? So the rest that we import doesn't have to come from the EU anymore, at the moment importing from the EU is the most cost effective solution because of the tariffs the EU impose on others.

vivatifosi

I understand what you say about TTIP davo, but do hope that the fact that we've had identical trading terms, standards, etc for the past 40 years will help rather than hinder. There won't be the same need to debate around standards etc, as they will have been taken on as part of the Great Repeal act. (Fingers crossed)

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

I understand what you say about TTIP davo, but do hope that the fact that we've had identical trading terms, standards, etc for the past 40 years will help rather than hinder. There won't be the same need to debate around standards etc, as they will have been taken on as part of the Great Repeal act. (Fingers crossed)

Standards are currently the same due to the Single Market. However the UK is in the process of giving up its voice in setting the rules so can no longer protect the much loved imperial measures and the EU can't prevent the UK from reintroducing selling carrots in cubic furlongs or some such.

Imperial measures are a form of protectionism just as the old yellow car headlights were in France or Germans insisting that beer was only made from hops, yeast, water and barley.

As soon as the EU insists that all measures are metric and the Daily Mail starts some idiotic campaign to bring back selling butter in rolls or uncias or something then free trade starts to unravel.

I really can't see any free trade agreement of substance being agreed in 2 years, train wreck Brexit is the likeliest outcome by a very long way. I guess there could be some sort of interim agreement to keep markets open but I suspect the stumbling block with that will be immigration rules. Apparently Britain is going to stop unskilled migrants :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:. 1 in 50 applicants to Pret ! Manger is British. Unemployment is at multi-decade lows. Who's going to sell you your brie baguette and limonade at lunchtime now?

TrickyTree83

davomcdave wrote: »

Standards are currently the same due to the Single Market. However the UK is in the process of giving up its voice in setting the rules so can no longer protect the much loved imperial measures and the EU can't prevent the UK from reintroducing selling carrots in cubic furlongs or some such.

Imperial measures are a form of protectionism just as the old yellow car headlights were in France or Germans insisting that beer was only made from hops, yeast, water and barley.

As soon as the EU insists that all measures are metric and the Daily Mail starts some idiotic campaign to bring back selling butter in rolls or uncias or something then free trade starts to unravel.

I really can't see any free trade agreement of substance being agreed in 2 years, train wreck Brexit is the likeliest outcome by a very long way. I guess there could be some sort of interim agreement to keep markets open but I suspect the stumbling block with that will be immigration rules. Apparently Britain is going to stop unskilled migrants :rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:. 1 in 50 applicants to Pret ! Manger is British. Unemployment is at multi-decade lows. Who's going to sell you your brie baguette and limonade at lunchtime now?

I can't buy into that view, businesses will be able to sell into the EU so long as they comply with EU regulation whatever that may be, just like they do in countries not currently in the EU who sell into the single market. I doubt measurements will be a problem. These are not insurmountable problems at a local business level so I fail to see how trade would stop because of it.