If we vote for Brexit what happens

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

No I expect the UK to leave the EU and EEA - before rapidly discovering life outside both is far too uncomfortable - and then rejoining via a 2 step process. EEA first as a face saving measure then full EU later...

The UK would have to rejoin EFTA first.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

..If Mayhem agrees to either the UK or Scotland remaining in the EEA then Indyref2 is finished - that seems highly unlikely now, albeit she still has to formally respond to the SG proposal, but her ministers are actively briefing against it.

Regardless it remains her choice to make - compromise on this issue or break up the UK.

We'll see what her choice is.

I can tell you now that Scotland remaining in the EEA whilst the UK departs is not an option. Article 128 of the EEA treaty makes it clear that;

Any European State becoming a member of the Community shall, and the Swiss Confederation or any European State becoming a member of EFTA may, apply to become a party to this Agreement.

vivatifosi

Conrad wrote: »

One of my arguments in the run up to the referndum was that we would enjoy leveredge from the fact we are a member of the Five Eyes global security and intelligence club. Hardened Renoaners simply filter out such facts of course, unable to even contemplate the positives of Brexit.

Today, Remoaner Majid Narwaz presenting LBC suddenly became aware of this Five Eyes club and stating it could be one of the means to help a Brexit Britain thrive.

I expected Remoaners to slowly start to catch on to what Brexit is all about, but it's quite funny observing them very slowly becoming enlightened.

Won't be long before they claim they said Brexit was always going to be a good idea.

Five eyes existed before we joined the EU. It will exist after we leave the EU. What does this have to do with Brexit? The EU is not the only treaty we are signatories to.

Spidernick

Conrad wrote: »

One of my arguments in the run up to the referndum was that we would enjoy leveredge from the fact we are a member of the Five Eyes global security and intelligence club. Hardened Renoaners simply filter out such facts of course, unable to even contemplate the positives of Brexit.

Today, Remoaner Majid Narwaz presenting LBC suddenly became aware of this Five Eyes club and stating it could be one of the means to help a Brexit Britain thrive.

I expected Remoaners to slowly start to catch on to what Brexit is all about, but it's quite funny observing them very slowly becoming enlightened.

Won't be long before they claim they said Brexit was always going to be a good idea.

Had you had a few when posting this?

Your arguments lose all validity with your repeated 'Remoaner' insult, when we all know that many Leave voters would not have accepted the result had it gone the other way in a close result. Remember your hero Farage just after the polls had closed and he thought he'd lost (his gracelessness in blaming people who were perfectly entitled to vote but registered late as the reason for the possible defeat is one reason why he should never be knighted in my opinion):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mSWldkDqrwY

(See from about 1.30 in).

Believe it or not, millions of us still think that leaving the UK is an incredibly stupid thing to do, despite your assertions above. We think this is one almighty mess that is going to damage us all and even the Mail on Sunday gives the impression that it's one monumental balls up:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4304860/Twin-bombshells-threaten-Theresa-s-formal-Brexit-plan.html

The Observer also reports this, but I'm sure you'd dismiss this 'liberal' view, which is why I've included the Mail link (against my better judgement):

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/11/brexit-trigger-article-50-theresa

Theresa May has been accused by a powerful parliamentary committee of putting the national interest at risk by failing to prepare for the “real prospect” that two years of Brexit negotiations could end with no deal.


The criticism – and warnings of dire consequences – is levelled at May by the all-party foreign affairs select committee only days before she is expected to trigger article 50 – the formal process that will end the UK’s 44-year membership of the European Union.

(note the bit I have put in bold).

Can I please ask you to stop insulting people who disagree with you, as I'm sure you are much better than that!

Mortgagefreeman

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

That the UK will rejoin is inevitable.

That you're wrong again is inevitable.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

To be fair they may well still go early next year.

But if they do you can bet your bottom dollar that it'll be Brexit-Light they're going for as the chances of them wanting to fight the 2020 election in the middle of a Brexit-Max recession are zero.

Wrong.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

I think they'll exit the EU.

But I don't think they'll exit the single market, nor stop most of the EU immigration (although I do think they'll make some concessions around the edges) nor stop contributing roughly the same to the EU budget as we do today.

And the reason I think they won't do all those things has nothing to do with the EU.

It's because our government knows full well that doing so would result in consequences that did such damage to the British economy and standard of living for the British people that it would make them unelectable in 2020.

Wrong.

Let's just face it, every prediction you've made about BREXIT has been wrong.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Just an hour ago the pro-remain Independent has reported that - rather than the UK owing £ billions to the EU - the UK could instead demand £9 billion from the EU:

Brexit negotiators are confident they can dramatically reduce the size of any bill for leaving the EU, according to legal documents circulated in the Department for Exiting the European Union.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-european-union-brexit-martin-howe-david-davis-boris-johnson-article-50-a7625261.html

Carry on reading and you will see the Independent's pro-EU stance return, but this is at last an acknowledgement of an argument that many pro-Brexit advocates have been suggesting as a valid point of leverage in EU Brexit discussions.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Meanwhile it really does look like Turkey are willing the Dutch people to vote for the far right.

Tensions are high and riot police have broken up demonstrations outside the Turkish Consulate in Rotterdam following Holland's decision not to allow Turkish ministers to hold pro-Turkish government rallies inside Holland.
Turkish response has been firm, but threatening the Dutch people and describing them as "fascists" like Erdogan has done will do little to relieve tension.
It will also IMHO do little to persuade Dutch voters to vote for an EU which is holding talks with Turkey about freedom of travel and eventual membership.

http://www.france24.com/en/20170312-tensions-rise-ahead-key-dutch-election

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39246392

http://www.itv.com/news/story/2017-03-12/diplomatic-row-between-turkey-and-holland-intensifies/

CKhalvashi

Mortgagefreeman wrote: »

That you're wrong again is inevitable.

How is Hamish's opinion wrong? That's all it is IMO, and I feel the same way.

The fact that you can't understand the perspective of anyone else is wrong, not someone else's right to disagree with you.

I stand by the fact that any MP that's within 2% swing of losing their seat would be extremely worried, especially if it was generally the older folk that were generally in favour of them and the younger were in complete disagreement.

That's my opinion, and you may not agree with it, but it's very much right. I also stand by the opinion that if there was an election tomorrow, the Conservatives would get a higher vote share than 2015 but lose their majority. There is no way you can tell me that's wrong either, as neither of us know.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

CKhalvashi wrote: »

How is Hamish's opinion wrong? That's all it is IMO, and I feel the same way.

The fact that you can't understand the perspective of anyone else is wrong, not someone else's right to disagree with you.

I stand by the fact that any MP that's within 2% swing of losing their seat would be extremely worried, especially if it was generally the older folk that were generally in favour of them and the younger were in complete disagreement.

That's my opinion, and you may not agree with it, but it's very much right. I also stand by the opinion that if there was an election tomorrow, the Conservatives would get a higher vote share than 2015 but lose their majority. There is no way you can tell me that's wrong either, as neither of us know.

It may well be your opinion but what is it based upon?
Because I can give many credible sources recently all of which point to an increased Tory majority were an election to be held soon.
Here are just a few:

if a general election were to be held next week, it would be Theresa May emerging with the bounty of a three-figure majority.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/labour-obliterated-fat-majority-tories-results-had-general-election/

This week's YouGov/Times voting intention figures sees the Conservatives on 44% (from 42% last week) - a level not seen since August 2010.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-25-8-9-ma/

Unless you can base your opinions on anything other than gut feelings, they are not worth very much TBH.
So - anything to support your "opinions" that is as credible as yougov or a broadsheet?

CKhalvashi

Does either organisation know exactly where the people in question live, and what voting intention is going where?

No, thought not, so their gut feeling is an increased majority, mine isn't. Their opinion on this is no more fact than mine is.

They're using something like this to come up with their findings
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/polls/general-election

Any vote now is unlikely to be a national vote, and will very likely be highly regionalised. Surely you can see that?

Normally those polls may be about right in terms of numbers, but I think we can all agree we don't live in normal times.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

That'll be a "no" then will it, CK?

To remind you: "anything to support your "opinions" that is as credible as yougov or a broadsheet?"