If we vote for Brexit what happens

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Further Polish discontent with the EU:

Nothing but a domestic squabble in Poland which spilled over into the EU - personality politics - which were rightly ignored by the rest of the EU.

Poland’s opposition to Tusk was hardly a surprise. The leader of the governing Law and Justice party in Warsaw, Jarosław Kaczyński, is Tusk’s longtime arch nemesis and holds Tusk personally responsible for the 2010 plane crash in Smolensk, Russia, that killed a delegation of high-level Polish officials, including his twin brother, then-President Lech Kaczyński.

But in opposing Tusk for a second two-and-a-half-year term, Poland was abandoned even by its closest allies — Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — fellow members of the Visegr!d Four.

http://www.politico.eu/article/poland-failing-to-tar-donald-tusk-paints-itself-into-a-corner-eu-council-president/

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

You clearly missed Newsnight this week reporting on Dutch liberalism being in thier view more or less erased. Liberals became fanatical authoritarians that demanded people accept things they never asked for.

*Yawn*

Wilders is a fringe lunatic with only tiny minority support - he'll never form a government - and the Dutch continue to vote overwhelmingly for mainstream candidates.

Conrad

One of my arguments in the run up to the referndum was that we would enjoy leveredge from the fact we are a member of the Five Eyes global security and intelligence club. Hardened Renoaners simply filter out such facts of course, unable to even contemplate the positives of Brexit.

Today, Remoaner Majid Narwaz presenting LBC suddenly became aware of this Five Eyes club and stating it could be one of the means to help a Brexit Britain thrive.

I expected Remoaners to slowly start to catch on to what Brexit is all about, but it's quite funny observing them very slowly becoming enlightened.

Won't be long before they claim they said Brexit was always going to be a good idea.

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

*Yawn*

Wilders is a fringe lunatic with only tiny minority support - he'll never form a government - and the Dutch continue to vote overwhelmingly for mainstream candidates.

Yawn, you said Farage would never amount to anything, yet without setting a foot in Parliament he's up ended British poltics.

Yawn, stop employing standard recieved wisdom, learn the art of independent thought.

Your outlook is so cookie cutter dull and timid, you seem to fall for every standard beige narrative, you ought to go along to a session of BBC Question Time, you would be one of those bovines that applaud the panel members that play to the gallery is such an obvious manner.

Stretttchhh that brain. Looking forwards to your apologising for doubting the obvious huge benefits of Brexit

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Yawn, you said Farage would never amount to anything,

He hasn't amounted to anything - failed to win election as an MP numerous times, his party is self destructing, and he's become a national embarrassment thanks to his close ties to the rapidly failing Trump regime.

Looking forwards to your apologising for doubting the obvious huge benefits of Brexit

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

Brexit is an omnishambles - Mayhem is losing control quickly and faces eternal humiliation as the PM who failed to save the UK from breaking-up - the EU holds the upper hand in negotiations - senior ministers are already briefing about how they'll have to keep the EU migrant flows coming - Hammond has just launched the first tax raid of many that will be required to pay for it all and broke a manifesto pledge to do it - and the Brexitary devaluation is now sending inflation up while wages will be falling in real terms within months.

I look forward to your apologising as Brexit becomes the disaster it's so clearly heading to be.

Never mind though - when what's left of Britain goes back grovelling to the EU to be let back in - Scotland as a full EU member by then probably won't veto it... If you learn some humility in the meantime.;)

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

....Never mind though - when what's left of Britain goes back grovelling to the EU to be let back in - Scotland as a full EU member by then probably won't veto it... If you learn some humility in the meantime.;)

Scotland might have some work to do in reducing its budget deficit down to at least something approaching the EU 3% target before the EU lets it join in the first place. 9.5% of GDP (or whatever) is a bit on the high side. That kind of austerity is going to take a few years to work through.

Even if this mooted autumn 2018 'referendum' takes place and it produces the 'right' result, I wouldn't bet on Scotland rejoining the EU before 2028. By which time the UK might well have managed to get out and back in again.:)

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

antrobus wrote: »

Even if this mooted autumn 2018 'referendum' takes place and it produces the 'right' result, I wouldn't bet on Scotland rejoining the EU before 2028.

The mood music coming from both Westminster and the EU is changing rapidly on that front....

As the reality is it's going to happen - and it seems even Mayhem is finally realising the best thing she could do to drive further support for Scottish Indy is to tell us we can't have one or try to delay it.

While senior EU politicians are now briefing Scotland could be back in by 2023 with an accelerated process and it's inconceivable an existing EU member would be blocked from rejoining.

By which time the UK might well have managed to get out and back in again.:)

Maybe so....

That the UK will rejoin is inevitable.

Once the pain of leaving flows through to the masses and they wake up to fact they've been utterly lied to by the Brexiteers, it will become as socially unacceptable to have supported Brexit as it now is to drink and drive.

But to be honest I suspect the UK would be more likely to park in the EEA for an extended time in an attempted face saving measure before quietly rejoining the full EU much later when it became clear our lack of a veto and influence in rule making was causing problems.

antrobus

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

..While senior EU politicians are now briefing Scotland could be back in by 2023 with an accelerated process and it's inconceivable an existing EU member would be blocked from rejoining. ...

I thought they were "leading academics" rather than "senior EU politicians";

However they conclude that on a "normal" accession process, Scotland could take up full EU membership in 2024 if it formally separated from the UK in 2020. This process could be accelerated if informal talks were able to take place before the end of 2020, making Scotland an independent member state by 2023.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/independent-scotland-could-be-full-eu-member-by-2023-1-4371486

I'd say that 2028 was far more realistic.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

...Maybe so....

That the UK will rejoin is inevitable.

Once the pain of leaving flows through to the masses and they wake up to fact they've been utterly lied to by the Brexiteers, it will become as socially unacceptable to have supported Brexit as it now is to drink and drive.

But to be honest I suspect the UK would be more likely to park in the EEA for an extended time in an attempted face saving measure before quietly rejoining the full EU much later when it became clear our lack of a veto and influence in rule making was causing problems.

If the UK "parks in the EEA" then (a) won't the SNP be happy , and (b) where is the "pain of leaving" going to come from?

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

antrobus wrote: »

If the UK "parks in the EEA" then (a) won't the SNP be happy , and (b) where is the "pain of leaving" going to come from?

No I expect the UK to leave the EU and EEA - before rapidly discovering life outside both is far too uncomfortable - and then rejoining via a 2 step process. EEA first as a face saving measure then full EU later.

If Mayhem agrees to either the UK or Scotland remaining in the EEA then Indyref2 is finished - that seems highly unlikely now, albeit she still has to formally respond to the SG proposal, but her ministers are actively briefing against it.

Regardless it remains her choice to make - compromise on this issue or break up the UK.

We'll see what her choice is.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Meanwhile, in Spain....

SPAIN would not block a bid by Scotland to rejoin the EU, according to a senior MEP from the country’s ruling party.

Esteban Gonzalez Pons from Mariano Rajoy’s Popular Party said the Catalonian situation was “very different” to that in Scotland, and indicated concerns over the possible breakaway of the province from Spain would not be an obstacle if a newly independent Scotland wanted to join the EU.

http://www.thenational.scot/news/15149387