If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

mrginge wrote: »

I agree entirely with your view that the demands of the EU are incompatible with the mutually beneficial position of free trade.

Lets hope more people start to put pressure on the EU to drop their protectionist stance.

I am not sure if the link below has been reported on MSE in recent days but it seems to me that some differences of opinion about the future of the EU27 are emerging?


http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-385_en.htm

"The White Paper sets out five scenarios, each offering a glimpse into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices Europe will make (see Annex). The scenarios cover a range of possibilities and are illustrative in nature. They are neither mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive.
Scenario 1: Carrying On -
Scenario 2: Nothing but the Single Market –
Scenario 3: Those Who Want More Do More – .
Scenario 4: Doing Less More Efficiently -
Scenario 5: Doing Much More Together "

davomcdave

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

Absolutely correct.
Neither however does it demonstrate a supposed overwhelming vindication of the strategy of the remain camp - and this despite the continuation of "project fear".
If anything it shows that people are generally happy with their lot since - if they were not - turnout would most likely have been higher.
Either that or voters have had enough of voting.

Not everything is Remain vs Leave. Local politics is often about the local school or housing policy or something else. It would be a bit strange to vote for a local council member because of their Brexit position.

davomcdave

vivatifosi wrote: »

Thanks setmefree2. On Sky they were also saying that the EU position may be "pay the bill, then we start negotiating", whereas ours will be, we are willing to pay for the right deal, but we have to get to that first and then negotiate the bill.

The view of France and Germany appears to be that this is the remainder of the money that the UK has already agreed to pay. The only argument is about how to define what needs to be paid.

As someone (a politician) on the BBC the other day was arguing about a few million pounds out of a bill of tens of billions makes me think that negotiations on the Brexit bill will not be simple or indeed successful.

Train wreck Brexit is my prediction. That is Brexit with no agreements in place at all.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Not everything is Remain vs Leave.

Did I say it was?
Perhaps you missed "Absolutely correct."?

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I see today that the Norwegian Minister Of Finance and leader of the Progressive Party says that - if there were an EU referendum vote today - she would vote no.

Commercial and peace – projects have been turned into a bureaucracy quagmire, the Minister of Finance elaborated.

The party’s program committee is saying no to EU membership and is open to renegotiate parts of the EEA Agreement.

http://norwaytoday.info/news/jensen-eu-today-vote-no/

So it looks like Norway still don't want EU membership and in fact want to renegotiate at least parts of the EEA Agreement with the EU.

kabayiri

There is no pain-free Brexit option.

There is no pain-free version of the EU going forward.

Why do people seem to view a vote for EU remain as the status quo?

It is anything but. The EU has some pretty big demands upcoming, and it will press the usual suspects for extra money to support these demands.

Meanwhile, I notice that Germany now does more business with China than USA :
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-economy-trade-idUSKBN1622SO

Germany may talk the European talk, but it's clear where the trade focus must be.

Do Juncker and co even recognise the changing world dynamic?

gfplux

BobQ wrote: »

I am not sure if the link below has been reported on MSE in recent days but it seems to me that some differences of opinion about the future of the EU27 are emerging?


http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-17-385_en.htm

"The White Paper sets out five scenarios, each offering a glimpse into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices Europe will make (see Annex). The scenarios cover a range of possibilities and are illustrative in nature. They are neither mutually exclusive, nor exhaustive.
Scenario 1: Carrying On -
Scenario 2: Nothing but the Single Market –
Scenario 3: Those Who Want More Do More – .
Scenario 4: Doing Less More Efficiently -
Scenario 5: Doing Much More Together "

It has been reported but not discussed as it is about the EU after Britain has left.
There is no more difference of opinion than normal. This is the possible 5 ways forward AFTER Britain has left. So of little concern.

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

It has been reported but not discussed as it is about the EU after Britain has left.
There is no more difference of opinion than normal. This is the possible 5 ways forward AFTER Britain has left. So of little concern.

Discussions aren't going to wait until the UK has left. The challenges and disagreements already exist. Brexit negotiations will simply highlight them. As the EU splits into factions.

gfplux

So early days on the Lamb research.
I was in Auchan Luxembourg yesterday.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auchan
They are a French Supermarket group with over 3000 locations in 16 Country's.
So first caveat I am pretty sure they Tayler their offering subject to their region.
Auchan Luxembourg only have British and French lamb.
Prices, well difficult as such a wide choice, so couple of examples. English leg of lamb €15.90 kilo French €22.90 kilo.
How does that compare with a British Supermarket?
However it looks to me that after Brexit they can easily swap out British lamb for New Zealand. Unless frozen and then thawed meat it not to our taste.

As we have a number of other Supermarket groups trading here I intend to see what the others offer.

gfplux

Fresh Luxembourg milk by the way 3.5% fat €1.82 a liter in Auchan.
Once again only a snap shot as so much choice.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

I see that hearings are to begin at the International Court Of Justice tomorrow, March 6th, regarding Ukraine's suit against Russia.

Kiev claims Moscow employed terrorism in its Donbass region and has mistreated Crimea's minorities.

http://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-v-russia-a-potential-game-changing-lawsuit-comes-before-the-icj/a-37806132

Relevant on this thread why, you may ask?
The article linked-to below makes for interesting reading.

From the Ukrainian point of view, when the EU made it clear that it was willing to sign an Association Agreement with Ukraine, Brussels took at least partial responsibility for developments in our country. Responsibility is not of course the same as blame, and the EU can be blamed for only one thing; it overestimated the European aspirations of the Ukrainian government at that time, and underestimated the anti-European Russian authorities’ plans for Ukraine.

http://europesworld.org/2014/06/15/tracing-the-origins-of-the-ukraine-crisis-should-the-eu-share-the-blame/