If we vote for Brexit what happens

westernpromise

It does feel like there are one or two more car manufacturers than there need to be.

Conrad

So UK manufacturing surges.


No doubt Remainers still want to run away to the hills in view of UK inflation set to remain at historically low levels. The fact we might be at long last rebalancing the economy, bringing about good and dignified jobs based around exporting and addressing the toxic trade deficit with the EU, escapes them.


Project pathetic.

davomcdave

kabayiri wrote: »

I thought the prevailing wisdom from the motor industry was that there were too many mass car manufacturers?

This was a common perception going back to the late 90s, and if anything we can now add the likes of Kia, Hyundai, to this.

You just know that if Apple or Google get into the car market by self-drive or some similar innovation, they are going to try and turn the concept of a car on it's head.

They could easily seek to manufacture the whole hardware in China, and attempt to value add to the car using software and the whole package.

This is much wider than a Brexit thing. It's about the changing nature of competition in this globalised market everyone goes on about.

I follow autonomous cars quite closely and I suspect that Google and Apple will discover that making cars is hard, really very hard indeed. Making money from it is even harder.

I suspect that just as the inventors of airbags didn't end up making cars to go with them the same thing will happen with software firms trying to make cars.

That's before we get to the fundamental problem with car automation which is that you really have to do it in one big leap. It would be hopeless to have millions of people being driven to work of a morning who only have control passed back to them at the moment of catastrophe. We can get part way to automation but there is a really big final leap that has to be made from keeping people moving in steadily flowing motorway traffic to all of the driving round cities.

Anyway I'm getting off topic. The trouble with car making, traditionally at least, was that every country felt that they had to have a car industry; as a symbol of their arrival into the 1930s I suppose. As a result, pretty much all of the 50(?) biggest economies in the world feel that they have to give car manufacturers massive subsidies.

To give an example, the British Government promised to compensate Nissan for export levies to the EU post-Brexit in return for the September investment the company made. If the EU were to put a 10% tariff on British-made cars and that promise was made across the industry then the value of the subsidy would be greater than the total value of wages paid by the car industry:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan-subsidies-analysis-idUKKBN12X0K7

The promise already made to Nissan would be greater in cost at a 10% import levy than the total wage bill of Nissan.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

Anyway I'm getting off topic. The trouble with car making, traditionally at least, was that every country felt that they had to have a car industry; as a symbol of their arrival into the 1930s I suppose. As a result, pretty much all of the 50(?) biggest economies in the world feel that they have to give car manufacturers massive subsidies.

To give an example, the British Government promised to compensate Nissan for export levies to the EU post-Brexit in return for the September investment the company made. If the EU were to put a 10% tariff on British-made cars and that promise was made across the industry then the value of the subsidy would be greater than the total value of wages paid by the car industry:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-nissan-subsidies-analysis-idUKKBN12X0K7

The promise already made to Nissan would be greater in cost at a 10% import levy than the total wage bill of Nissan.

Wrong.
That old chestnut again?

This has been discussed to death in these forums and there remains absolutely no proof whatsoever that ANY financial agreement has been made between the UK and Nissan as you suggest above; even the link you provide very clearly says "The nature of the Nissan deal - which gave Britain a crucial corporate endorsement as it prepares for life outside the European Union - is unknown. The government said there hadn't been a "detailed and specific" agreement on tariffs."

Following such incorrect assumptions, Greg Clark said on The Marr Show:

he had not made any commitment to provide Nissan with compensation post-Brexit and the promises so far were not specifically to benefit Nissan, remarking: "A lot of this applies to the industry generally."

http://www.cityam.com/252540/business-secretary-reveals-he-told-nissan-tariff-free-trade

If you are going to make statements about future costs of car manufacturing to the UK or anywhere else, you could at least base your ideas upon fact instead of fiction.
Which is (fortunately) what the manufacturers themselves do.

setmefree2

Former SNP deputy leader: I won’t vote for Scottish independence if it means rejoining the EU

Speaking in a BBC Radio 4 documentary broadcast on Monday, the former Glasgow Govan MP warned that Nicola Sturgeon risked alienating SNP supporters, a third of whom voted to Leave, by framing a second referendum around EU membership.
He said: “I, for example, could not vote Yes if on the ballot paper it said, ‘We wish the Scottish state to be a member of the European Union’, and I’m not alone in that.
“One of the biggest miscalculations by Nicola Sturgeon is to believe that the 1.6 million Scots who voted Remain would automatically then vote to go back into the European Union.

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1188555/former-snp-deputy-leader-wont-vote-scottish-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

setmefree2

London Financial Jewel Brightens Even as Brexit Reckoning Looms

One of London’s crown financial jewels — a business sought after by the rest of Europe — is shining brighter than ever before.
The U.K. capital’s LCH clearinghouse is the world’s biggest for interest-rate swaps, a market where trading has marched steadily higher in every survey since 1995. Last year, LCH’s swap clearing business enjoyed a 25 percent jump in volume to $666 trillion. And the regulatory incentives giving those operations a tailwind are just getting stronger.
But LCH has a major distraction: Continental Europe thinks it’s located on the wrong side of the English Channel. That’s raised questions about whether its customers would begin seeking other options. With less than a month until Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union is set to begin, LCH’s majority owner says business is going great so far.
There have been no “indications of business frittering away,” Xavier Rolet, chief executive officer of LCH parent London Stock Exchange Group Plc, said Friday in an earnings call. “Our market share is growing everywhere.”
LCH dominates clearing in a market where $1.9 trillion changes hands every day, and it seems poised to grow. Federal Reserve policy could boost volatility and demand for interest-rate swaps along with it. Heavy issuance of government and corporate bonds has amplified the need for a way to hedge those assets.

http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/london-financial-jewel-brightens-even-as-brexit-reckoning-looms/

Herzlos

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/fp/news/politics/1188555/former-snp-deputy-leader-wont-vote-scottish-independence-means-rejoining-eu/

I can see it being a 2nd question, if yes to independence, then a yes/no to the EU. If the other 2/3rds want into the EU, then that's what we'll do.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

There is an EU summit on March 25th in Rome.
Marking the 60th anniversary of the EU's founding treaties and intended to reaffirm unity within the EU.

But it's not exactly going to plan:

Germany, the EU's most powerful state, said Tuesday it was dissatisfied with a declaration being prepared for a landmark Rome summit on the bloc's post-Brexit future later this month.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170307/germany-demands-more-ambition-from-eu-partners-over-post-brexit-future

Oh dear.
If the EU can't agree on their own anniversary summit, what chance is there of any agreement when Article 50 is presented and negotiations commence?

CKhalvashi

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39200658

Great to see that sovereignty in action from our Upper House, you know, the sovereignty that so many Leave campaigners voted for.

Also, the one that the Supreme Court decided there should be involvement in, which means not just at the start, but the power to question the government right through the process.

It's so lovely to live in a democratic country :D:D

mrginge

CKhalvashi wrote: »

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39200658

Great to see that sovereignty in action from our Upper House, you know, the sovereignty that so many Leave campaigners voted for.

Also, the one that the Supreme Court decided there should be involvement in, which means not just at the start, but the power to question the government right through the process.

It's so lovely to live in a democratic country :D:D

I don't know what you're getting so excited about. The consequence of the govt not getting their plans through is a general election.

May should, and I expect will, simply not give an inch.

That's how our democracy works.