If we vote for Brexit what happens

gfplux

davomcdave wrote: »

This goes to the heart of the trade debate. If the UK doesn't buy the lamb and it continues to be exported to the EU then what are the Brits going to eat instead? Britain produces some excellent lamb but it tends to be expensive and exported to France and Spain where they are prepared to pay a premium for a better product. Brits are generally happy to buy less flavoursome, frozen lamb.

Who loses out in this situation? I argue that it's both the EU and UK. So Brexit makes Britain and the EU worse off. In a rational world the EU and UK would agree free trade in lamb so the situation can be resolved however the UK doesn't want free trade under the terms the EU demands so no free trade and everyone ends up poorer. Congratulations.

Thank you Dave for that insight. Next time I am in the supermarket (Luxembourg) I will check both the origin and price of the Lamb on sale.

My original post was not to point out an insurmountable problem but to post something that might not be widely known. All these things can be negotiated nothing or very little is insurmountable.

One unexpected value of Brexit is that, speaking for myself, I am learning a lot of new things about trade and its complexity.

kabayiri

Conrad wrote: »

The 27 would have every incentive to over a poorer deal if they know Parliament might vote against it, and by then Miller hopes the mood might have changed or something and we would end up remaining.

...

What assurances could Ms Miller offer regards the terms of UK staying in the EU, in say 18 months time?

A. None.

It is unlikely we would just be rewinding the clock to 22nd June 2016. A large chunk of the UK have sent out a signal that they are not committed to the EU.

It is only natural that the EU will follow a potentially divergent path. See what the Italian premier had to say on the matter. He reckons it was the UK holding back EU progress. He is probably right. We *did* slow down the move to closer integration.

Shakethedisease

vivatifosi wrote: »

I'm just watching Theresa May speak to Scottish Conservative & Unionist Party. She made an interesting and provocative comment: `While the SNP propose that decision-making should remain in Brussels, we will use the opportunity of Brexit to ensure that more decisions are devolved back into the hands of the Scottish people."

On the contrary. She's proposing to rip up the 1998 Act which underpins Scottish devolution itself, rewrite it to suit a Brexit Scotland didn't vote for and remove powers from Holyrood ( currently under EU control ) over fishing, agriculture and other areas.

But in a speech to the Scottish Conservative conference, the Prime Minister suggested the 1998 devolution settlement was now out of date because of Brexit. She said the aim now was to “ensure that the right powers sit at the right level” to “avoid any unintended consequences for the integrity” of a post-Brexit UK.
UK-wide positions on aspects of agriculture, fisheries and the environment were preferable “to strike the best possible possible trade deals internationally”, she said.

“We must also ensure that the UK which emerges from the EU is able to strike the best possible trade deals internationally.

Under the 1998 Scotland Act underpinning devolution, powers not specifically reserved to Westminster are automatically devolved to Holyrood.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15132076.May_on_collision_course_with_Sturgeon_as_PM_warns_of_major_rewrite_of_devolution_deal_after_Brexit/


Won't go down particularly well I should imagine. Most folks in Scotland want more powers ( Devo Max would've won if it had been on the ballot paper in 2014) and Scottish Labour have just come out for Federalisation. This is going backwards.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Mayhem's arrogance will be her undoing.

Rinoa

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Won't go down particularly well I should imagine. Most folks in Scotland want more powers

When you're independent you'll have unlimited powers.

First thing you'll do with your new found independence is to hand all control over agriculture and fisheries back to Brussels.

posh*spice

Rinoa wrote: »

When you're independent you'll have unlimited powers.

First thing you'll do with your new found independence is to hand all control over agriculture and fisheries back to Brussels.

Yes - just like Ireland. You couldn't make it up.

vivatifosi

Shakethedisease wrote: »

On the contrary. She's proposing to rip up the 1998 Act which underpins Scottish devolution itself, rewrite it to suit a Brexit Scotland didn't vote for and remove powers from Holyrood ( currently under EU control ) over fishing, agriculture and other areas.

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15132076.May_on_collision_course_with_Sturgeon_as_PM_warns_of_major_rewrite_of_devolution_deal_after_Brexit/


Won't go down particularly well I should imagine. Most folks in Scotland want more powers ( Devo Max would've won if it had been on the ballot paper in 2014) and Scottish Labour have just come out for Federalisation. This is going backwards.

She is positioning the SNP as a one trick pony that is only interested in leaving the UK. The government is doing much the same as with UKIP.. Another pony,that one no longer needed as they've achieved their goal.

I don't know who will win this one, but it is certainly interesting to watch. She's not afraid to face up to the opposition, that's for sure. Sitting in the House of Lords was another example of that.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

Pertinent to Brexit;






03/03/2017

Labour have lost Kersal in Salford to the Tories. It was a Labour seat for decades and has gone blue despite Rebecca Long-Bailey’s best efforts to get out the vote yesterday. Results via Britain Elects:


CON: 42.0%

LAB: 27.3%

IND: 17.5%

UKIP: 9.0%

GRN: 2.4%

LDEM: 1.9%

I'd be careful of reading too much into a single local council by election where not even a quarter of voters could be bothered to come out. The winner got a fraction over 10% of the electorate to vote for her. It's certainly not some vindication of the Tories' Brexit strategy.

Shakethedisease

vivatifosi wrote: »

She is positioning the SNP as a one trick pony that is only interested in leaving the UK. The government is doing much the same as with UKIP.. Another pony,that one no longer needed as they've achieved their goal.

I don't know who will win this one, but it is certainly interesting to watch. She's not afraid to face up to the opposition, that's for sure. Sitting in the House of Lords was another example of that.

While that might work in other areas of the UK who get a skewed and warped view of Scottish politics presented to them a lot of the time. The 'one trick' story won't work in Scotland where the SNP have been in power now for a decade, scrutinised intensely on every single policy decision they take in every area of Scottish life ( and many they don't ).. yet still, recently been returned with more votes than Scottish Labour and Conservatives combined. If May meant her speech to paint the SNP as a one trick pony I doubt she'll get very far with it in Scotland at least. Not when the Scottish Tories have turned into a 'stop the referendum party' over the last nine months. They have no other policies.

May probably made a huge mistake today. Independence aside, most Scottish voters want more powers at Holyrood, not less. And last time round when Osborne came up and told Scotland they couldn't use the pound, after an age of independence polls flatlining for Yes that's when they started turning. . May is doing the Vow in reverse before a referendum has even been called.

We'll see I guess how it plays.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

Remainers constantly see insurmountable problems instead of opportunities and welcome change

You realise how ridiculous it is to claim that 52% of the population share common views and goals beyond having voted to leave the EU?

I don't see the lamb problem as insurmountable. I see it as an very good example of having a trade solution that currently works very well being politically disrupted with producers and consumers potentially losing as a result.

You really need to get past this euphoric phase you are in whereby you see every result of Brexit as being positive. Whenever things change there are winners and losers. To deny that is a bit silly really.