If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

The Government has defeated the first challenge in the Lords to its plan to trigger Brexit negotiations next month.
Peers voted against an amendment to the Brexit Bill demanding the UK retains its membership of the European single market.
The 229 to 136 vote, a majority of 163, exposed deep divisions within Labour.
In the debate, former Business Secretary Lord Mandelson warned it would be an "economic disaster" for Britain to leave the single market.
Lord Mandelson hit back saying the UK would be a "senior influential" member of the European Economic Area (EEA) with influence over rule-making.
However, opposition frontbencher Baroness Hayter of Kentish Town accused supporters of the amendment of offering "unrealistic hope" that the UK could stay within the EU's trading area.

Warning against re-running the arguments of the referendum campaign, she said Britain would be recipients of rules set in Brussels if it opted for a Norwegian-style model.
"I can't understand why my own frontbench can't see it," he said.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-bill-amendment-article-50-theresa-may-house-of-lords-lord-mandelson-baroness-hayter-a7602916.html

Surely the Lords must realise that if they try to overturn Brexit in any sort of meaningful way that it's going to end very badly for them. It is extremely hard to see a good outcome for them if they stand in the way of the Commons over this.

kabayiri

Conrad wrote: »

You gang always claim such anecdotes must be nonsense, but invariably these canary in the coal mine examples end up being shown to be widespread events later on. It's classic 'out of touch progressive' to dismiss peoples experiences and prefer a report written but some drippy academic from his ivory tower.

I'd rather our authorities treat these anecdotes seriously; examine the cases in more detail; and work out if our systems are deficient.

setmefree2

Shakethedisease wrote: »

No it won't be. While May might wish that to be the case but Sturgeon will set the date well before that.

OK I stand corrected.

We shall see. Don't you think it would only be fair to Scottish voters that you wait and see how the EU negotiations go? The outcome of negotiations with the US? Or are you not really interested in fairness?

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

You gang always claim such anecdotes must be nonsense, but invariably these canary in the coal mine examples end up being shown to be widespread events later on. It's classic 'out of touch progressive' to dismiss peoples experiences and prefer a report written but some drippy academic from his ivory tower.

It's ridiculous to think that the plural of anecdote is anything other than anecdotes.

Are you seriously suggesting that the Government manages the country by anecdote rather than data? It's a ludicrous idea, plain stupid. Can you imagine the MPC meeting:

Broadbent: I understand that prices have gone up substantially in the Spar in Lower Middlebottom. Anecdotal data suggest inflation is a threat and we must act by raising rates.
Carney: I think we need to temper that by realising that petrol prices are down tuppence in Retford Jet garage. The anecdotes don't just point one way.

cogito

wotsthat wrote: »

Before I blame (or otherwise) people for exploiting opportunities I prefer to know if they're actually exploiting said opportunities.

Just how many foreigners are dumping elderly relatives on the UK state and disappearing without a trace?

I don't know how prevalent it is but it certainly happens. Google 'granny dumping'

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/30/wife-son-dumped-roger-curry-dementia-uk-car-park

setmefree2

'An historic mistake': Sir John Major

So says the man that signed Maastricht without bothering to hold a referendum......

oh and presided over Black Wednesday when Britain went crashing out of the ERM

In 1997, the UK Treasury estimated the cost of Black Wednesday at £3.4 billion.[1] In 2005, documents released under the Freedom of Information Act revealed that the actual cost may have been slightly less, £3.3 billion.[2]]

Just in case any of you are too young

When the ERM was set up in 1979, the United Kingdom declined to join. This was a controversial decision, as the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Geoffrey Howe, was staunchly pro-European. His successor, Nigel Lawson, a believer in a fixed exchange rate, admired the low inflationary record of West Germany. He attributed it to the strength of the Deutsche Mark and the management of the Bundesbank. Thus, although the UK had not joined the ERM, from early 1987 to March 1988 the Treasury followed a semi-official policy of 'shadowing' the Deutsche Mark.[4]

Matters came to a head in a clash between Lawson and Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher's economic adviser Alan Walters, when Walters claimed that the Exchange Rate Mechanism was "half baked".I]citation needed[/I

This led to Lawson's resignation as chancellor to be replaced by his old prot!g! John Major, who, with Douglas Hurd, the then Foreign Secretary, convinced the Cabinet to sign Britain up to the ERM in October 1990, effectively guaranteeing that the British government would follow an economic and monetary policy preventing the exchange rate between the pound and other member currencies from fluctuating by more than 6%. On 8 October 1990, Thatcher entered the pound into the ERM mechanism at DM 2.95 to the pound. Hence, if the exchange rate ever neared the bottom of its permitted range, DM 2.773, the government would be obliged to intervene. With UK inflation at three times the rate of Germany's, interest rates at 15% and the "Lawson Boom" about to bust, the conditions for joining the ERM were not favourable at that time.I]citation needed[/I

From the beginning of the 1990s, high German interest rates, set by the Bundesbank to counteract inflationary effects related to excess expenditure on German reunification, caused significant stress across the whole of the ERM. The UK and Italy had additional difficulties with their double deficits, while the UK was also hurt by the rapid depreciation of the United States Dollar – a currency in which many British exports were priced – that summer. Issues of national prestige and the commitment to a doctrine that the fixing of exchange rates within the ERM was a pathway to a single European currency inhibited the adjustment of exchange rates. In the wake of the rejection of the Maastricht Treaty by the Danish electorate in a referendum in the spring of 1992, and announcement that there would be a referendum in France as well, those ERM currencies that were trading close to the bottom of their ERM bands came under pressure from foreign exchange traders.I]citation needed[/I

In the months leading up to Black Wednesday, Soros had been building a huge short position in pounds sterling that would become immensely profitable if the pound fell below the lower band of the ERM. Soros recognized the unfavourable position at which the United Kingdom joined the ERM, believing the rate at which the UK was brought into the Exchange Rate Mechanism was too high, their inflation was also much too high (triple the German rate), and British interest rates were hurting their asset prices.[5] George Soros, the most high-profile of the currency market speculators, made over £1 billion[6] in profit by short selling sterling.

The effect of the high German interest rates, and high British interest rates, had arguably put Britain into recession as large numbers of businesses failed and the housing market crashed. Some commentators, following Norman Tebbit, took to referring to ERM as an "Eternal Recession Mechanism"[9] after the UK fell into recession during the early 1990s. While many people in the UK recall Black Wednesday as a national disaster, some conservatives claim that the forced ejection from the ERM was a "Golden Wednesday"[10] or "White Wednesday",[11] the day that paved the way for an economic revival,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday

Herzlos

cogito wrote: »

I don't know how prevalent it is but it certainly happens. Google 'granny dumping'

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/30/wife-son-dumped-roger-curry-dementia-uk-car-park

Ah, it's a US term, because of the huge cost of health care, who'd have thought it.

Googling "granny dumping uk" shows a few hits for the above incident, and a post from 2007 about how it's a problem. It doesn't seem to be *that* common over here or worth treating as endemic. Where are the reports of all these anonymous pensioners or any indication of where they came from? Remember that anecdotally, there's no difference between a foreign sounding UK citizen and a foreigner, when there's no context.

Edit: The 2007 reference for "granny dumping" is for a completely different phenomena - taking them to hospital for unspecified and vague complaints like "falling" or being "unwell" in order to avoid looking after them.

So we're sitting at 1 recorded case of a pensioner being taken to the UK before being dumped, and that seems to have been in extreme hardship (wife also unwell, house having burnt down).

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

So we're sitting at 1 recorded case of a pensioner being taken to the UK before being dumped, and that seems to have been in extreme hardship (wife also unwell, house having burnt down).

Whilst I agree with some of your post I do find it strange that you fail to mention that this house that burnt down was - like the man and his family - American, being in an area of Los Angeles called Whittier.

Are you suggesting then that - should your family house burn down - in your "extreme hardship" and with a wife "unwell" you go and buy plane tickets to the other side of the Atlantic?

As for how common this is, well how could we possibly know unless a national system is in place to count those in care that are either "anonymous" or of undetermined status?
AFAIK there is no such requirement.

Hence the one report receiving such publicity was as a result of an appeal, firstly from the residential home which escalated via social services to the police who appealed for information internationally.
Without that appeal this case would in all probability have gone unreported.
Which makes me wonder just how many such cases ARE unreported.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Germany and other net contributors to the joint European Union budget will have to pay out more once Britain leaves the bloc, European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said in comments published on Monday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-budget-germany-idUKKBN16626K?il=0

According to an internal Finance Ministry report in September, Germany may have to contribute an extra 4.5 billion euros in 2019 and 2020, after Britain leaves.

How will Germans react when they begin to realise, I wonder?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

A little Brexit city news?

The European Union will not pick an immediate fight with the City of London over its right to clear euro-denominated securities, EU officials said on Monday, as Britain prepares to trigger the process of quitting the bloc.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-eu-clearing-regulations-idUKKBN16622V