If we vote for Brexit what happens

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Oh well a poll in the guardian is definitely the way we should run the country.

Especially a poll which seems to suggest taking a course of action which may not even be possible.

I wonder how many of those so opposed to the no-deal scenario have actually got any idea what that actually means. Perhaps we could ask them all what the *maximum* tariffs involved actually are, where they could be applied and what alternative arrangements countries use instead.
I'm sure they would be able to tell us.

The problem that this poll highlights is that Team Brexit never really offered a plan and of the three main promises they made (NHS cash, ending immigration, Turkey joining the EU) at least 2 were rubbish.

As a result May has to find some sort of Brexit solution that at best can only please slightly more than half the population but in reality is going to please a bloody sight fewer and even that would only be if Brexit actually succeeds in delivering positive economic results.

In response to your question, the maximum tariffs the EU can apply are infinite. That would be illegal under WTO rules but countries do stuff all the time that is against the rules of the EU. Try opening a shop in India or a logistics firm in Japan if you want a practical example.

cogito

davomcdave wrote: »

The problem that this poll highlights is that Team Brexit never really offered a plan and of the three main promises they made (NHS cash, ending immigration, Turkey joining the EU) at least 2 were rubbish.

As a result May has to find some sort of Brexit solution that at best can only please slightly more than half the population but in reality is going to please a bloody sight fewer and even that would only be if Brexit actually succeeds in delivering positive economic results.

In response to your question, the maximum tariffs the EU can apply are infinite. That would be illegal under WTO rules but countries do stuff all the time that is against the rules of the EU. Try opening a shop in India or a logistics firm in Japan if you want a practical example.

Remind me. What was Team Remain's plan if the vote was to leave the EU?

I think you will also find that tariffs that the UK can apply are also infinite not that any of this nonsense will happen. And you might like to enlighten us on what opening a shop in India has to do with the EU. I don't think either India or Japan are either in the EU or Europe.

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

The problem that this poll highlights is that Team Brexit never really offered a plan and of the three main promises they made (NHS cash, ending immigration, Turkey joining the EU) at least 2 were rubbish.

I'm not really interested in going over who said what in a campaign that was the epitome of !!!!!!!!. Time to move on and deal with the future.

As a result May has to find some sort of Brexit solution that at best can only please slightly more than half the population but in reality is going to please a bloody sight fewer and even that would only be if Brexit actually succeeds in delivering positive economic results.

I agree she has to find some sort of solution. I don't agree with your assessment of reality.
I do think that we should support the process of finding the best possible solution by not compromising a negotiating position.

In response to your question, the maximum tariffs the EU can apply are infinite. That would be illegal under WTO rules but countries do stuff all the time that is against the rules of the EU. Try opening a shop in India or a logistics firm in Japan if you want a practical example.

Its really not a response is it. Let's not deal in fantasy. Unless of course you actually believe that an 'infinite' tariff is an actual possibility.

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

Its really not a response is it. Let's not deal in fantasy. Unless of course you actually believe that an 'infinite' tariff is an actual possibility.

It is a response. A tariff of 258% can be replaced by one of 259% which can be replaced by one of 260%. If anything your initial question was poor because there isn't really an answer to it by your defined position. Ask a better question and you'll get a better answer.

I'm not really interested in going over who said what in a campaign that was the epitome of !!!!!!!!. Time to move on and deal with the future.

So we have a campaign which makes a bunch of promises. We then ask them to enact those promises and they say, "Oh that was all just a lie to get you to support us. We will now do as we please and you have to accept it because 52%". I think it's pretty clear why people are becoming increasingly disillusioned by politics and looking for alternatives. Trump might be a colossal winkpuffin but at least he's doing what he said he would.

This is such a monumentally poor argument. It's like me going into a jewelers and buying a diamond ring for £1,000, being given a plastic watch and when I complain being told to stop focusing on the past. It's horse poo.

mrginge

davomcdave wrote: »

It is a response. A tariff of 258% can be replaced by one of 259% which can be replaced by one of 260%. If anything your initial question was poor because there isn't really an answer to it by your defined position. Ask a better question and you'll get a better answer.

My mistake. I assumed that since the poll in question talks about WTO terms it would be obvious that my question also related to WTO terms and the alternatives.

So we have a campaign which makes a bunch of promises. We then ask them to enact those promises and they say, "Oh that was all just a lie to get you to support us. We will now do as we please and you have to accept it because 52%". I think it's pretty clear why people are becoming increasingly disillusioned by politics and looking for alternatives. Trump might be a colossal winkpuffin but at least he's doing what he said he would.

This is such a monumentally poor argument. It's like me going into a jewelers and buying a diamond ring for £1,000, being given a plastic watch and when I complain being told to stop focusing on the past. It's horse poo.

Just so you're clear, I'm not interested in replaying either side's campaign claims.

The reality of political debate and involvement is that it has improved significantly over the last six months and continues to do so. Despite a largely ineffective main opposition.

BobQ

davomcdave wrote: »

The problem that this poll highlights is that Team Brexit never really offered a plan and of the three main promises they made (NHS cash, ending immigration, Turkey joining the EU) at least 2 were rubbish.

As a result May has to find some sort of Brexit solution that at best can only please slightly more than half the population but in reality is going to please a bloody sight fewer and even that would only be if Brexit actually succeeds in delivering positive economic results.

In response to your question, the maximum tariffs the EU can apply are infinite. That would be illegal under WTO rules but countries do stuff all the time that is against the rules of the EU. Try opening a shop in India or a logistics firm in Japan if you want a practical example.

I agree. The poll is really not that surprising. Nearly half the country did not vote for Brexit and a proportion of those that did will not have viewed a hard Brexit as an acceptable solution. We could argue about what that proportion is, but it seems fairly likely that only about a third of the country would support a hard Brexit

BobQ

cogito wrote: »

Remind me. What was Team Remain's plan if the vote was to leave the EU?

.

I doubt Team Remain saw any need for a plan any more than Team Leave did. It was always going to be the decision of the Government.

davomcdave

mrginge wrote: »

My mistake. I assumed that since the poll in question talks about WTO terms it would be obvious that my question also related to WTO terms and the alternatives.

Just so you're clear, I'm not interested in replaying either side's campaign claims.

The reality of political debate and involvement is that it has improved significantly over the last six months and continues to do so. Despite a largely ineffective main opposition.

WTO tariffs are 10% for some goods but it quickly becomes murky when you look at trade in services and agriculture. This idea of a 'hard Brexit' where the UK simply trades under WTO rules is a bit of a fantasy I fear. What people call a hard Brexit is more of a train wreck Brexit unless the UK can get an actual agreement to trade under WTO rules.

I agree that the level of debate has improved no end. The problem remains that the sort of campaign that Leave ran which was not specific on ultimate aims means that each Brexit voter will have their own idea as to what Brexit means. I met someone that wanted Brexit because he wanted to buy petrol in gallons again. He's likely to be disappointed with the ultimate outcome of Brexit.

Matt_L

davomcdave wrote: »

It is a response. A tariff of 258% can be replaced by one of 259% which can be replaced by one of 260%. If anything your initial question was poor because there isn't really an answer to it by your defined position. Ask a better question and you'll get a better answer.



So we have a campaign which makes a bunch of promises. We then ask them to enact those promises and they say, "Oh that was all just a lie to get you to support us. We will now do as we please and you have to accept it because 52%". I think it's pretty clear why people are becoming increasingly disillusioned by politics and looking for alternatives. Trump might be a colossal winkpuffin but at least he's doing what he said he would.

This is such a monumentally poor argument. It's like me going into a jewelers and buying a diamond ring for £1,000, being given a plastic watch and when I complain being told to stop focusing on the past. It's horse poo.

Ahhh the remoaning continues..

So every argument the remain side put forward was based on fact and no exaggeration or lie was threatened? You're right about people becoming disillusioned, i believe thats exactly why the leave side won the referendum, they saw the remains lies for what they were....

BobQ

mrginge wrote: »

Just so you're clear, I'm not interested in replaying either side's campaign claims.

The reality of political debate and involvement is that it has improved significantly over the last six months and continues to do so. Despite a largely ineffective main opposition.

I am not clear what you are interested in from this debate. The poll that initiated this segment of the debate is quite credible for the reasons I have given. All that is being pointed out is that the referendum and its result means that we are unlikely to get a consensus on what is the best deal. We are agreed that Brexit will happen but as the poll shows only a minority support a hard Brexit.