If we vote for Brexit what happens

posh*spice

Thrugelmir wrote: »

Is there such a thing as an EU citizen. Or is it just a label of convenience. Having an identity is important to many people.

People really do see themselves as Euopean - we don't. We need to leave both for us and the rest of Europe.

Ps people i know who do see themselves as european - they are generally people who hate to see themselves as British/English.

Thrugelmir

posh*spice wrote: »

People really do see themselves as European

I appreciate that. But it's like NIMBY's. They soon fade away when it becomes either personal and local. Theirs no uniform EU character. Not least that's still huge dislike between certain nationalities. Look also at this forum and the number of expats that drop by as they cannot let go and cut the umbilical cord.

BobQ

Conrad wrote: »

You know how lefty 'liberals' argue we will lose workers rights under the Tories?


Well this implies the left feels it lacks the potency and policies to win the next GE.

Personally I think the left is content with protesting the growth of global capitalism etc

It will probably take another 20 years of Tory rule to make the under 30s take their heads out of their iphones for long enough to realise that most of them will be poor for the rest of their lives. Whether they get off their collective backsides and do something about it is another matter.

CLAPTON

BobQ wrote: »

Personally I think the left is content with protesting the growth of global capitalism etc

It will probably take another 20 years of Tory rule to make the under 30s take their heads out of their iphones for long enough to realise that most of them will be poor for the rest of their lives. Whether they get off their collective backsides and do something about it is another matter.

No, if brexit actually happens and migration is restricted, then the young will massive benefit by higher paying jobs, cheap rents and houses, lower pollution and generally a better quality of life.

vivatifosi

Conrad wrote: »

Watch this to get a sense of the demise of the modern 'liberal'.

I don't see liberal as a dirty word. If I go to the OED, I get:

Willing to respect or accept behaviour or opinions different from one's own; open to new ideas. Count me in...

If people are not promoting hate speech, or things that are illegal, or breaching (eg forum) rules, then trying to stop them speaking is of itself illiberal.

Sapphire

Just wondered, do you think that the right to stay of foreign citizens from EU countries will be reserved for those who are actually working and contributing? And surely it would only apply to those who entered the country before Article 50 was triggered – so after that only those who have a job will be allowed to come to Britain and obtain benefits. I worry about the huge numbers of people Merkel invited over to Germany coming here. I don't want the sort of (growing) mayhem, fear and disruption to society that is prevalent in Germany, Sweden and France, and for taxpayers to have to support such numbers, when our NHS, housing, schools and other parts of our infrastructure are already very weak. I want this madness to stop and to feel safe and not suffer anxiety because of all this.

Moby

Sapphire wrote: »

Just wondered, do you think that the right to stay of foreign citizens from EU countries will be reserved for those who are actually working and contributing? And surely it would only apply to those who entered the country before Article 50 was triggered – so after that only those who have a job will be allowed to come to Britain and obtain benefits. I worry about the huge numbers of people Merkel invited over to Germany coming here. I don't want the sort of (growing) mayhem, fear and disruption to society that is prevalent in Germany, Sweden and France, and for taxpayers to have to support such numbers, when our NHS, housing, schools and other parts of our infrastructure are already very weak. I want this madness to stop and to feel safe and not suffer anxiety because of all this.

There is no Mayhem in Germany. She's running our sad little country. Germany is the mightiest economic powerhouse in europe pricipally because they have a solid, inventive manufacturing industry that makes goods at the right price that others want to buy.
If you tied their currency arrangements in knots, consumers would STILL seek them out...because they're perceived to be THE BEST.......and THAT'S the real worry for the UK.
Post brexit we plan to take on the worlds trading nations from a small trading base for our size, and where we simply haven't matched the investment levels and the productivity/quality levels that they and other countries have.
Even if you look at investment in manufacturing history back to the end of WW2, you quickly see a pattern of, year after year after painful year, we surrendered market share in almost every manufactured range of goods...with some like cars, steel, motor bikes etc etc almost evaporating for ever other than near niche markets.......I see no no-one telling us that the key to any post brexit future is the investment of GINORMOUS sums, and in very short order, since it's naive in the extreme to think that the custodians of business around the world are gonna play any softball game with us....the gloves are quite definitely off........but so many blerts are obsessed with the issue of immigration.......it's a red herring! Get the fundamentals right it's not an issue. You should be anxious I agree.....but for completely different reasons!

CKhalvashi

Sapphire wrote: »

Just wondered, do you think that the right to stay of foreign citizens from EU countries will be reserved for those who are actually working and contributing? And surely it would only apply to those who entered the country before Article 50 was triggered – so after that only those who have a job will be allowed to come to Britain and obtain benefits.

I think it should be reserved for those that are employed, self-employed or self-sufficient long term (with a net worth of £x), and should take effect from the day we leave the EU (eg 2019).

I think also that it's what is going to happen.

Lets be honest, would it be worth asking someone who is contribting to leave the country? I could roll up tomorrow anywhere in the EU and gain a 5 year residence permit then 5 year residency (I believe this will continue to be the case until 2019 too, as no country can discriminate against another EU national), and for those that want/need to leave for personal/business reasons will offer a way to do so.

I take your point on Merkel's recent migrant amnesty, however they will not have German citizenship by 2019, so shouldn't be an issue in the real world. I believe it's 6 years for refugees unless married to a German citizen, at which point it's being married for 3 (not living in Germany for 3). This won't affect many in this situation, and the number being looked at are probably in the 10s or 100s, most of whom probably won't want to move to the UK.

A global Britain shouldn't want to turn away our European neighbours who want to come to the UK to start or expand a business, especially if that can turn the UK to a hub for export to the rest of the world through a subsidary company, nor British businesspeople from using EU27 countries as an EU hub.. I would suggest a lenient visa policy both ways for this purpose (including residence rights), subject to taxable income of maybe 2x the average wage in each country after 2 years before the situation is regularly reviewed and at that point new migrants could be asked to leave. There should also be a minimum jobs created requirement. This will be subject to negotiation both ways. I admit (as should be obvious from what I've said already) that I set to benefit from this sort of policy personally.

Romania has a good system where the business plan has to be reviewed by a state agency (similar to BEIS) before a permit is issued for non-EU nationals and I believe there is further state support through that similar to business hubs, and a proposed minimum salary of about €750, or about double the average wage. A much better system IMO than stipulating a minimum investment as it allows those with innovative businesses that have a good chance to gain investment needed to seek that opportunity.

I'd like honest opinions on this from both leavers and remainers, not taking into account where the policy is from (I've included it so that you can check it out yourselves) but rather the principal of it. I'm not excluding opening this up to the rest of the world, just throwing around ideas for debate.

davomcdave

Moby wrote: »

There is no Mayhem in Germany. She's running our sad little country. Germany is the mightiest economic powerhouse in europe pricipally because they have a solid, inventive manufacturing industry that makes goods at the right price that others want to buy.
If you tied their currency arrangements in knots, consumers would STILL seek them out...because they're perceived to be THE BEST.......and THAT'S the real worry for the UK.
Post brexit we plan to take on the worlds trading nations from a small trading base for our size, and where we simply haven't matched the investment levels and the productivity/quality levels that they and other countries have.
Even if you look at investment in manufacturing history back to the end of WW2, you quickly see a pattern of, year after year after painful year, we surrendered market share in almost every manufactured range of goods...with some like cars, steel, motor bikes etc etc almost evaporating for ever other than near niche markets.......I see no no-one telling us that the key to any post brexit future is the investment of GINORMOUS sums, and in very short order, since it's naive in the extreme to think that the custodians of business around the world are gonna play any softball game with us....the gloves are quite definitely off........but so many blerts are obsessed with the issue of immigration.......it's a red herring! Get the fundamentals right it's not an issue. You should be anxious I agree.....but for completely different reasons!

Britain makes a lot things, especially services but also goods, that are sold abroad and is something like the sixth largest exporter in the world. The trade imbalance is caused by the British also being prodigious importers.

It's not fair or okay to call the UK a sad little country. Britain is one of the richest countries in the world and has a decent way of life by almost any measure.

The UK has lost market share but so what? The whole point of the Marshall Plan and lots of aid and trade policies is that it's better to have 1% of 100 than 10% of 5 for everyone. Real GDP per capita has risen pretty much every year since 1955 in Britain. According to the ONS since 1955 only 7 years, 1962, 1974, 1981, 1991, 1992, 2009 & 2012, have seen Q1 real GDP per capita lower than the previous year's. Britain is clearly doing something right.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_rJJuTPWB-J8jkRZoeRi3De2tMLBxVcPKN2D-89lkUk/edit#gid=10

A_Medium_Size_Jock

More encouraging signs from Malta regarding Brexit, suggesting that a "reasonable" settlement is possible within the two-year timeframe:

Maris Kucinskis said: "What is most important is to think about a beneficial partnership (and) find an amicable solution to all of this.
"There are negotiators who are taking care of the best possible deal for both sides so that's the top priority at the moment."

http://news.sky.com/story/uk-eu-trade-deal-is-possible-by-end-of-brexit-negotiations-10755422


Also today a poll in France shows Fillon's popularity waning - no surprise given recent revelations:

French conservative presidential candidate Francois Fillon, embroiled in a scandal involving salaries paid to his wife for work she may not have done, would not get through to the runoff vote for the presidency, a poll showed on Saturday.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-poll-idUKKBN15I0JF?il=0

From what I am observing, the French are running smear campaigns not dissimilar to those seen in our referendum albeit not as vehement or indeed prolific.

Fillon paid his wife & kids; Macron married his teacher; Le Pen won't pay back what the EU say she owes for supposedly misspent EU funds.
These coming months will be interesting IMHO.