If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

European Union president trashes Trump as 'threat

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/01/31/politics/european-union-trump/

setmefree2

Yet, one should keep in mind that the bulk of world trade does not take place under basic WTO rules and liberalisation commitments enshrined in national schedules. More than half of world trade is governed by more advantageous rules, tariffs and market access commitments, which are set out in hundreds of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). PTAs allow countries to lower tariffs for goods and to enhance market access for service providers on a discriminatory basis without the requirement to extend such preferential trading conditions to other WTO members. Due to the limited progress in multilateral trade negotiations in the WTO, countries have entered into hundreds of PTAs during the last decades.

The EU has been highly active in negotiating PTAs. It has concluded some 35 PTAs with countries as diverse as Algeria, Chile, Egypt, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Papua New Guinea, Singapore and Ukraine. And more PTAs are in the making. The EU’s trade with these countries does not take place under the conditions specified in its WTO schedule, but indeed benefits from lower tariffs for goods and better market access conditions for service providers.
The assumption that after a ‘hard’ Brexit EU-UK trade will take place under basic WTO rules and schedules seems unrealistic. It implies that EU-UK trade would be subject to higher tariffs and more market access restrictions than trade between the EU and Ukraine or Mexico. It would be difficult to communicate why a former core Member State of the EU should have more limited access to the single market than countries in other world regions.
The EU would look like it was deliberately punishing the United Kingdom for its decision to leave. The EU would thereby degrade itself. It would send the political message that EU membership is essentially about economic benefits, which are withdrawn once a country leaves. Yet, for the forefathers of the EU, trade was never an end in itself. Trade is a tool to promote political integration, peace, prosperity and individual freedom as part of a European ‘demoicracy’. The EU’s leadership should be careful when playing the economic card. It may pervert the spirit and objectives of the EU.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/01/31/how-international-regulatory-cooperation-can-ease-a-hard-brexit/

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

It implies that EU-UK trade would be subject to higher tariffs and more market access restrictions than trade between the EU and Ukraine or Mexico. It would be difficult to communicate why a former core Member State of the EU should have more limited access to the single market than countries in other world regions.




http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2017/01/31/how-international-regulatory-cooperation-can-ease-a-hard-brexit/

This logical line of argument has been stated many times in the debate on this forum.
I posted up the list of such EU agreements way back when, but remainers simply filter out such facts. Why they do this is anyone's guess. All come backs to having an impotent view of Britain


When Ken Clarke and co paint Brexit aims as as fantasy over the rainbow nonsense, it his he that is completely deluded and negative.

setmefree2

Brexit hits Dutch flower exports, chrysanthemum sales plunge

Sales to the UK declined by 14% in December, the paper said. The UK is second only to Germany as a buyer of flowers auctioned in the Netherlands, a market which exceeds €5.5bn every year. In particular, nearly 33% of chrysanthemums exports head to Britain, the paper said.

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/01/brexit-hits-dutch-flower-exports-chrysanthemum-sales-plunge/

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.ft.com/content/1eb625ae-e47b-11e6-9645-c9357a75844a

Thanks again for bringing some details of the complexity of trade and the potential for very large unintended consequences of badly thought out (shooting from the hip) trade "deals"

The British/EU car industry works in a similar way with parts passing across borders multiple times before becoming a whole car.

Conrad

gfplux wrote: »

Thanks again for bringing some details of the complexity of trade and the potential for very large unintended consequences of badly thought out (shooting from the hip) trade "deals"

The British/EU car industry works in a similar way with parts passing across borders multiple times before becoming a whole car.

And the nations we rebuilt after WW2, and that we rescued from the yolk of Communism, will want to continue unhindered trade with a good and powerful neighbour


Trade will not be meaningfully hampered, adaptations will be found, all will be well. Some losses for us, but far more to gain.

setmefree2

EU will lose out from bad Brexit deal on City, says leaked report

Exclusive: European parliament committee’s warning will reassure UK ministers as they prepare for article 50 talks

The European commission’s Brexit negotiators must strike a “workable” deal with Theresa May’s government to protect the City of London or the economies of the remaining member states will be damaged, a leaked EU report warns.
The document – which has been seen by the Guardian – describes it as critical for the economic health of the remaining member states that the current financial eco-system is not hit in the coming Brexit negotiations.
The paper, drawn up by officials working for the European parliament’s powerful committee on economic and monetary affairs (Econ), warns that UK-based financial services account for 40% of Europe’s assets under management and 60% of its capital markets business. “And UK-based banks provide more than £1.1tn of loans to the other EU member states,” the Econ secretariat’s paper notes.

“If financial services companies choose to leave the UK as a result of Brexit, the consequences should be carefully evaluated.
“A badly designed final deal would damage both the UK and the other 27 EU member states.
“The exclusion of the main European financial centre from the internal market could have consequences in terms of jobs and growth in the EU. It is in the interest of EU 27 and the UK to have an open discussion on this point.”
The warning echoes recent comments from the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, when he claimed there are “greater short-term risks on the continent in the transition than there are in the UK”. Last month, the European commission Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier was also reported to have told MEPs that with the City “there will be a special/specific relationship. There will need to be work outside of the negotiation box … in order to avoid financial instability.”

the 26-page document, titled Impact of the UK withdrawal on Econ areas of competence, and dated 13 December, notes that an analysis of offering equivalence status to the UK has been designated as a priority by “Econ coordinators”. It says: “Given the considerable interdependence between the UK and the EU economy and financial systems, it is critical that a workable agreement is achieved that not only maintains high regulatory standards but also delivers growth and jobs across the EU

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/feb/01/eu-brexit-deal-city-leaked-report-european-parliament-article-50

Conrad

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/01/brexit-hits-dutch-flower-exports-chrysanthemum-sales-plunge/

Again this very thing was discussed some time back, funny how it's all coming true!!


I posted on the Dutch flower exports to us after seeing a documentary about that very trade, which showed how much of our own growing trade in places like Lincolnshire and Sussex had lost out

setmefree2

Conrad wrote: »

I posted on the Dutch flower exports to us after seeing a documentary about that very trade, which showed how much of our own growing trade in places like Lincolnshire and Sussex had lost out

I seen that documentary myself. Very interesting. The Dutch flower industry was/is a very impressive affair....but I did notice when I was next in M & S that the Dutch flowers indeed had no fragrance!

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2017/01/brexit-hits-dutch-flower-exports-chrysanthemum-sales-plunge/

price of flowers go up due to lower value of pound, Brits stop buying! What happened to romance?