If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Type in "Scotland trade worth four times more" into Google and you'll see the political message which is common among all newspaper and media outlets getting punted out 24/7 to Scottish readers.

The implication being that if Scotland votes for independence and remains in the EU then trade with the rUK will stop or diminish to an alarming rate. Now don't get me wrong there's never going to be a time were union leaning media outlets are going to say otherwise or admit that things are a little more complex than that.

But the political message is very clear and very obviously framed as a straight either or choice between a UK single market or an EU one. Sturgeon putting EFTA or EEA on the table shoots the fox.

I agree that the Scotland/England trade will not stop is we go our separate ways.
If we have different currencies and / or there are tariffs applied, then we would expect some impact on the volume and value of the trade.

This is just the same as will happen when the UK and the Eu go their separate ways except of course we alredy have different currencies.

Why then is single market access so essential to you to the EU but not significance for you to England?

TrickyTree83

antrobus wrote: »

Did you not read that blog posting? It contains the following statement;

"So Cherry and Salmond are simply wrong."

Thank you for sharing that.:)



From Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Release Date :27 January 2017;

The total nominal value of Scotland’s International Exports (excluding Oil and Gas) decreased in the last year, falling by £920 million ( 3.2% ) from £28.4 billion in 2013 to £27.5 billion in 2014.

and

In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector (up 0.6%) and the ‘other’ 1 sector (up 16.2%). Manufacturing business exports, which account for more than half of all exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Or try this one; HMRC regional trade statistics, 3rd qtr 2016, release date 06 December 2016;

Of the four UK countries, only Scotland saw a decrease in exports during the year

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Wrong again, eh.:rotfl:

The truth doesn't matter to pro-independence advocates. Just create a story that supports your belief and repeat it as much as you can. It doesn't matter if it's true or not.

A blog post that points out Mrs Cherry was indeed cherry picking data to support a story rather than comparing apples to apples should be all anyone needs to read to realise the pro-indy brigade are talking through their rectum - again.

BobQ

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I don't think historical links in the face of Brexit and this particular complexion of right wing Tory governance who look like being in place for a while are going to be quite enough next time round.

However, in the event of a second vote/referendum it does look like this trade issue is going to be the new mantra. Sturgeon would be best keeping EEA/EFTA options open in the face of.. well.. what can only be termed as veiled threats of 'sanctions' and embargo's on Scottish trade. Because they're trying to sell the idea, right now, to Scottish folks that trade with rUK will stop overnight should Scotland vote for independence. And that all Scotland will be left with is trade with the EU and that's that.

Mad, but that's political messaging for you. Thus EEA/EFTA needs to be an option on the table.

,

One of the things that is lost in the bald figures of exports and imports between Scotland and rUK is that these are not based purely on goods and services that are wholly based in either place.

Once you look at the dependencies between suppliers that generate the exports and where they are based you see how interdependent we are. A car made in Sunderland and sold by a supplier in Glasgow to a firm based in Carlisle is an export by Scotland?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

Yes I read the posting. Fraser pointing out that the USA is the bigger export market based on his reckoning. Other amateur bloggers and commentators pieces are also available. ...

I suggest you stop wasting your time on blogs and twitter, and focus more on actual sources.

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...I didn't say I agreed with him, I read wider than one blogger to form my opinions. You're free like me to make up your own mind. Scotland is a large player in rUK export destinations. This should be bourne in mind. Sturgeon will likely put EEA and EFTA on the table in some form during any second ref as an option.

So this second 'referendum' is going to be some kind of multiple choice questionaire?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...Scottish exports are up across the board ....

Why repeat that statement, when I have just shown it is not true?

Shakethedisease wrote: »

...and Scotland is the only nation out of 4 in the UK in Trade Surplus. Gas and Oil figures not included. ...

No, gas and oil figures are included. Regional Trade Statistics include the export of mineral oils.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

I suggest you stop wasting your time on blogs and twitter, and focus more on actual sources.



So this second 'referendum' is going to be some kind of multiple choice questionaire?



Why repeat that statement, when I have just shown it is not true?



No, gas and oil figures are included. Regional Trade Statistics include the export of mineral oils.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

The figures from the Scottish Govt, and the ones being thrown about on the BBC and everywhere else certainly do exclude oil and gas figures. Here's Douglas Fraser BBC Scotland on Scottish news the other night with a handy graphic for you.



Anyway.. Just because it's relevant and also posted in Scotland thread see below re EEA/EFTA in the Times today. Am not going to get into a big discussion on it on this thread though.

The SNP is close to ditching one of its longest-held principles for Scottish independence — full membership of the European Union, The Times has learnt.

Senior party figures want to adopt a Norway-style model under which an independent Scotland would stay inside the single market, but outside the EU, after Brexit, according to sources. They believe that this would allow Scotland to retain the benefits of the European single market while continuing to trade within the UK as it does now.

...this would result in the country being in the European Free Trade Area and part of the European Economic Area, but outside the EU — the same as Norway. Scotland would have to pay the EU for this privilege and allow free movement of people from the EU. It would also mean that Scotland would not have a say on EU rules.

However, this option would give Scotland control over fishing and would enable the country to be “semi-detached” from Europe and the UK.
Crucially, this option would also leave Scotland and the UK outside the EU customs union and it is this that SNP managers believe would allow an open border for trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

Crucially, this option would also leave Scotland and the UK outside the EU customs union and it is this that SNP managers believe would allow an open border for trade between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/455fe294-e66f-11e6-a93a-4fa396e7e4ed

cogito

Hmmmm. So you think that it's a great idea to pay membership fees to a club that you wouldn't be a full member of and at the same time give up all the money that the Auld Enemy send you under the Barnett Formula.

Yep. That makes sense.

davomcdave

cogito wrote: »

Hmmmm. So you think that it's a great idea to pay membership fees to a club that you wouldn't be a full member of and at the same time give up all the money that the Auld Enemy send you under the Barnett Formula.

Yep. That makes sense.

It's just the normal rubbish posted on that Scottish thread. Spain would scupper any deal that supports an independent Scotland in any way just as Greece will never let Turkey join the EU.

The funniest bit is that while the SNP leaders clearly aren't stupid and don't believe a word of any of this their voters lap it up. The SNP leadership knows full well that an independent Scotland would be effectively bankrupt immediately and would have no bargaining power in the world as they have a tiny population, a tiny economy and very little oil left exploitable (North Sea oil needs a price of about $60 per barrel for new wells whereas US shale oil producers need $40-50).

If you want a laugh go over to the Scottish thread because they really are convinced that Scotland is some kind of Eden that is only held back by the English.:rotfl::T

mrginge

Shakethedisease wrote: »

The figures from the Scottish Govt, and the ones being thrown about on the BBC and everywhere else certainly do exclude oil and gas figures. Here's Douglas Fraser BBC Scotland on Scottish news the other night with a handy graphic for you.


Anyway.. Just because it's relevant and also posted in Scotland thread see below re EEA/EFTA in the Times today. Am not going to get into a big discussion on it on this thread though.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/455fe294-e66f-11e6-a93a-4fa396e7e4ed

Well it's a plan I guess.

Massive policy u-turn, but we of course must accept that politicians need to reflect the changing views of their electorate.

A plan to try keep hold of the waverers is all very well, but this does sound a bit like many might just think why bother with independence at all if that's where we end up.

Replacing a subsidy from the UK with a payment to the EU.
Replacing some say in UK rules with no say in EU rules.
Still a potential hard border.


I don't know. It's not really floating my boat TBH.

TrickyTree83

mrginge wrote: »

Well it's a plan I guess.

Massive policy u-turn, but we of course must accept that politicians need to reflect the changing views of their electorate.

A plan to try keep hold of the waverers is all very well, but this does sound a bit like many might just think why bother with independence at all if that's where we end up.

Replacing a subsidy from the UK with a payment to the EU.
Replacing some say in UK rules with no say in EU rules.
Still a potential hard border.


I don't know. It's not really floating my boat TBH.

Floundering.

norsefox

davomcdave wrote: »

It's just the normal rubbish posted on that Scottish thread. Spain would scupper any deal that supports an independent Scotland in any way just as Greece will never let Turkey join the EU.

The funniest bit is that while the SNP leaders clearly aren't stupid and don't believe a word of any of this their voters lap it up. The SNP leadership knows full well that an independent Scotland would be effectively bankrupt immediately and would have no bargaining power in the world as they have a tiny population, a tiny economy and very little oil left exploitable (North Sea oil needs a price of about $60 per barrel for new wells whereas US shale oil producers need $40-50).

If you want a laugh go over to the Scottish thread because they really are convinced that Scotland is some kind of Eden that is only held back by the English.:rotfl::T

Same old nonsense I'm afraid. Spain has no problem with an independent Scotland that achieves independence through a vote agreed with the UK.

Spain has a problem with a unilateral declaration of independence (see Kosovo etc.), because that's what it faces with Catalonia.

Opposing the membership of Scotland within the EU has precisely zero benefit to Spain - assuming that the vote that takes Scotland out of the EU is one agreed with the UK government.

That is no comment on the likelihood of Scottish independence, or the benefits/pitfalls to either the UK or Scotland, it's a comment on the reality of Spanish foreign policy.