If we vote for Brexit what happens

setmefree2

UK and Turkey work on plans for post-Brexit trade deal

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-01-28/theresa-may-in-turkey-for-meeting-with-president-recep-tayyip-erdogan/

Conrad

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

GDP of Commonwealth (including UK) = $12 trillion

GDP of the EU (including UK) = $20 trillion

Remind me again why we'd want to get back in bed with a much smaller sized and less developed economic grouping - mostly half way around the world - and whose cumulative corruption and poverty indices make the EU look like a bastion of global success and honesty?

We will trade just as much as we do now with Europe AND now be free to establish trade deals with the Commonwealth.

Result = more total trade and global influence, no daily £25 million club fee, no dilution of soverignty

One day it will sink in

gfplux

kabayiri wrote: »

Regardless of which side of the Remain/Leave divide you lean towards, nobody can argue this is one of the more interesting times in recent history.

The Brexit vote followed by the election of Trump has challenged many of the accepted norms.

This morning this was exactly the topic of our conversation.
We certainly live in interesting times. At my age I have lived through a number of different/strange/scary/rewarding periods.
I look forward to Brexit happening as quickly as possible and Trump to becoming less unpredictable as he settles in to the job.
I like certainty a lot more than uncertainty.

gfplux

setmefree2 wrote: »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-27/brexit-all-that-stands-between-boe-and-a-rate-hike

Good news for savers.

setmefree2

vivatifosi wrote: »

Thanks for the ongoing feed of interesting articles, setmefree2. Very useful.

Ditto to all posters who post interesting links. Whether you like what's going on or not - at least we can feel informed (hopefully).

Thrugelmir

gfplux wrote: »

Good news for savers.

For normality I would say. Debt is the elephant in the room. Personal insolvencies are on the increase despite low rates. As people simply borrow more to fund their lifestyles. Higher activity in the UK economy has been highly dependent on consumer spending. Cannot last forever.

davomcdave

Thrugelmir wrote: »

For normality I would say. Debt is the elephant in the room. Personal insolvencies are on the increase despite low rates. As people simply borrow more to fund their lifestyles. Higher activity in the UK economy has been highly dependent on consumer spending. Cannot last forever.

I agree, if something is unsustainable it will stop.

I think that 2017-8 will be the year-and-a-bit of inflation. Inflation is rising in Germany, now 1.7%, the US, now 2.1%, Spain, 1.6%, UK, ditto, and even Italy, just 0.5% but up from deflating prices last year.

Inflation is low right now but is rising in most developed economies and rising fast. At some point central banks will probably increase rates. That is when things will start to get interesting.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

gfplux wrote: »

This morning this was exactly the topic of our conversation.
We certainly live in interesting times. At my age I have lived through a number of different/strange/scary/rewarding periods.
I look forward to Brexit happening as quickly as possible and Trump to becoming less unpredictable as he settles in to the job.
I like certainty a lot more than uncertainty.

Ah.
In which case I will quote Benjamin Franklin:

"in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes."

Just as applicable today as it was way back when he wrote that in 1789.

The world has always been an uncertain place and though you say you like certainty we have - in reality - never had such a thing.
From post-WWII cold war to modern-day terrorist threat, we are always balancing upon a knife edge.
Any appearance of stability is, sadly, an illusion.

Shakethedisease

mrginge wrote: »

Ah it's one-stat Hamish.
Ok I'll play.

Scottish exports to rUK : 48.5 Billion
Scottish exports to rEU : 11.6 Billion

Remind me again why you think Scotland should leave the U.K.

You need some context for this in the opposite direction.

Scotland is the largest European export market for the rest of the UK and the second largest in the world.

Here's all the countries in the world rUK can trade with post-brexit, tariff free.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Shakethedisease wrote: »

You need some context for this in the opposite direction.

Scotland is the largest European export market for the rest of the UK and the second largest in the world.

Here's all the countries in the world rUK can trade with post-brexit, tariff free.

Links to support any of that laughable use of terminology?

Because according to HMRC data your claim is incorrect:
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx
£21.8 billion of Scottish imports when the rest of the UK exports £231.6 billion cannot possibly equate to Scotland being "the largest European export market for the rest of the UK and the second largest in the world" can it?
Because even if Scotland imported nothing from anywhere other than rUK it would equal under 10% of the rUK's exports.

From my link:

The largest export partner by value for England and Scotland was USA. Germany was the largest export partner for Wales and the Irish Republic was the largest export partner for Northern Ireland.