If we vote for Brexit what happens

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

It can only be. But the big question is whether it's good or bad. The responses to that seem to align quite well with the brexit good/bad debate.

I was discusssing the huge UK trade deficit long before the brexit referendum : I freely admit I don't know what the 'correct' level of the pound should be but it is logical that buyers/sellers of stirling will take their future view in mind.
My own view is that the fall was inevitable at some time due to the additional borrowing it caused but that brexit was the specific cause that triggered the fall.
I prefer to think in terms of consequences rather than 'good' or 'bad' or 'blame'.

Its also true (although all EU acalytes on this board refuse even discuss the issue) ) that economists of all views, agree that Germany has an undervalued effective currency. They may not entirely agree whether that is a benefit to Germany or not or whether it is doing harm to the other members of the EU.

In general, if one is a 'remainers' they will refuse to discuss the German issue and will refuse to say whether the 'consequences' of undervalued currecy for the UK will be similar to that of German.

If one takes the view that endless increases in borrowing (either domestic or foreign) then I would think that people getting poorer via a lower currency but full employment, is probably better that better getting poorer by high unemployment but with a higher currency value.

vivatifosi

setmefree2 wrote: »

http://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/finland_wont_make_up_eu_budget_deficit_post-brexit_warns_finance_minister/9426505

Thanks for the ongoing feed of interesting articles, setmefree2. Very useful.

Thrugelmir

Herzlos wrote: »

It can only be. But the big question is whether it's good or bad. The responses to that seem to align quite well with the brexit good/bad debate.

The £ exchange rate has been a matter of discussion for a very long time. Remaining in the EU would have still left the UK with the same challenges to face. Brexit merely focused everyones attention. Trump has taken this mantle. In a months time attention will no doubt move elsewhere.

Conrad

Interesting point to bare in mind is that although our exports to the US are lower than to the EU, we are one another's largest investors in one another's business's, a point often over looked. A trade deal could make such investment yield a heavier harvest.

Another little factoid I learned today is that The Commonwealth contains 1/3rd of the worlds citizens. That's a lot of leveredge and strategic heavy lifting we abandoned when we slinked off into the EU

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

Another little factoid I learned today is that The Commonwealth contains 1/3rd of the worlds citizens. That's a lot of leveredge and strategic heavy lifting we abandoned when we slinked off into the EU

Plenty of people in the Commonwealth haven't forgiving the British for leaving them behind in joining the EEC as it was. While there are a lot of warm words out there I think that in the nitty gritty of negociating deals May's team will have to overcome an awful lot of suspicion and ill will.

HAMISH_MCTAVISH

Conrad wrote: »

Another little factoid I learned today is that The Commonwealth contains 1/3rd of the worlds citizens.

GDP of Commonwealth (including UK) = $12 trillion

GDP of the EU (including UK) = $20 trillion

Remind me again why we'd want to get back in bed with a much smaller sized and less developed economic grouping - mostly half way around the world - and whose cumulative corruption and poverty indices make the EU look like a bastion of global success and honesty?

cogito

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

GDP of Commonwealth (including UK) = $12 trillion

GDP of the EU (including UK) = $20 trillion

Remind me again why we'd want to get back in bed with a much smaller sized and less developed economic grouping - mostly half way around the world - and whose cumulative corruption and poverty indices make the EU look like a bastion of global success and honesty?

So you seem to be admitting that the EU is not a bastion of global success and honesty. Why would we want to stay in bed with them?

mrginge

HAMISH_MCTAVISH wrote: »

GDP of Commonwealth (including UK) = $12 trillion

GDP of the EU (including UK) = $20 trillion

Remind me again why we'd want to get back in bed with a much smaller sized and less developed economic grouping - mostly half way around the world - and whose cumulative corruption and poverty indices make the EU look like a bastion of global success and honesty?

Ah it's one-stat Hamish.
Ok I'll play.

Scottish exports to rUK : 48.5 Billion
Scottish exports to rEU : 11.6 Billion

Remind me again why you think Scotland should leave the U.K.

prosaver

mrginge wrote: »

Ah it's one-stat Hamish.
Ok I'll play.

Scottish exports to rUK : 48.5 Billion
Scottish exports to rEU : 11.6 Billion

Remind me again why you think Scotland should leave the U.K.

Because they dont want that 60 billion we give them every year..
They rather scrounge it of the EU...

So much for independence..
Thats a beauty

gfplux

Masomnia wrote: »

Indeed, it would be interesting to know if prices in Frankfurt are already rising in anticipation of banking staff moving over there.

I suspect they are in Frankfurt. They are also rising in Luxembourg.