If we vote for Brexit what happens

Shakethedisease

BobQ wrote: »

As much as I think that Scotland should take an opportunity to become part of the EEA, I I am not at all convinced that it will happen. Still cannot see Scotland voting for independence now given the historical links with rUK.

I don't think historical links in the face of Brexit and this particular complexion of right wing Tory governance who look like being in place for a while are going to be quite enough next time round.

However, in the event of a second vote/referendum it does look like this trade issue is going to be the new mantra. Sturgeon would be best keeping EEA/EFTA options open in the face of.. well.. what can only be termed as veiled threats of 'sanctions' and embargo's on Scottish trade. Because they're trying to sell the idea, right now, to Scottish folks that trade with rUK will stop overnight should Scotland vote for independence. And that all Scotland will be left with is trade with the EU and that's that.

Mad, but that's political messaging for you. Thus EEA/EFTA needs to be an option on the table.

cogito

Shakethedisease wrote: »

I don't think historical links in the face of Brexit and this particular complexion of right wing Tory governance who look like being in place for a while are going to be quite enough next time round.

However, in the event of a second vote/referendum it does look like this trade issue is going to be the new mantra. Sturgeon would be best keeping EEA/EFTA options open in the face of.. well.. what can only be termed as veiled threats of 'sanctions' and embargo's on Scottish trade. Because they're trying to sell the idea, right now, to Scottish folks that trade with rUK will stop overnight should Scotland vote for independence. And that all Scotland will be left with is trade with the EU and that's that.

Mad, but that's political messaging for you. Thus EEA/EFTA needs to be an option on the table.

Veiled threats of sanctions? By whom? Links please.

As for veiled threats, what about your beloved leaders?

Conrad

I heard an economist (one of the good common sense breed) saying Scotlands debt to GDP ratio ( it might have been another metric?) meant it was well foul of the rules of joining.

davomcdave

Conrad wrote: »

I heard an economist (one of the good common sense breed) saying Scotlands debt to GDP ratio ( it might have been another metric?) meant it was well foul of the rules of joining.

I'm not sure which economist you were listening to but, assuming that Scotland takes on debt from the UK proportionate to the UK's debts in line with either GDP or population, it would have a debt:GDP ratio about the same as Britain's is currently, 91% and rising. The growth and stability pact says that you should have debt ratio of less than 60% plus a really complex calculation of structural deficits. I'm sure you're perfectly capable of using Google if you want to look up the details in their highly boring glory. It's a classic crap EU fudge.

If the EU members really wanted Scotland to join then it could just grant an exemption or change the rules. Given the glacial pace at which the EU moves that would probably take a very long time but it could be done just like Scotland could be exempted from joining the Euro or have their MEPs required to wear a tartan hat and bright red fright wig during budget discussions. They're just rules and rules can be changed. After all, we eat shellfish and no longer stone adulterers despite Leviticus having some pretty strict views on those things, we simply changed the rules. I managed to drive my car today without anyone walking in front of it with a big red flag and I will be able to buy a bible or smoked fish today, things that were illegal not so long ago.

More seriously, if the Scots are so concerned about single markets why would they leave a single market with their biggest trade partner, England?

antrobus

Shakethedisease wrote: »

.. .https://whytepaper.wordpress.com/2017/01/22/trading-places/

Did you not read that blog posting? It contains the following statement;

"So Cherry and Salmond are simply wrong."

Thank you for sharing that.:)

Shakethedisease wrote: »

.. at the end of the day like I said Scotland's exports are up across all markets and Scotland is in trade surplus which is great news. For anyone interested in reading the blog the comments on this entry are worth reading too....

From Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Release Date :27 January 2017;

The total nominal value of Scotland’s International Exports (excluding Oil and Gas) decreased in the last year, falling by £920 million ( 3.2% ) from £28.4 billion in 2013 to £27.5 billion in 2014.

and

In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector (up 0.6%) and the ‘other’ 1 sector (up 16.2%). Manufacturing business exports, which account for more than half of all exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Or try this one; HMRC regional trade statistics, 3rd qtr 2016, release date 06 December 2016;

Of the four UK countries, only Scotland saw a decrease in exports during the year

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Wrong again, eh.:rotfl:

A_Medium_Size_Jock

davomcdave wrote: »

More seriously, if the Scots are so concerned about single markets why would they leave a single market with their biggest trade partner, England?

Ah, and it is there that you misunderstand perhaps.

Because it is not "the Scots" who are so concerned despite what some may tell you, the implication being that it is all or even a large majority of Scots.
It is some Scots with - as you may by now realise - the most vocal advocates for leaving the UK being in various forums, this one included.

I agree that the number of Scots wanting to leave the UK may have changed since the 2014 independence referendum or indeed may well continue to change.
Evidence so far suggests that there is no more support now however than there was in 2014 and in fact (purely anecdotal, admittedly) from my own observations support is less than in 2014, and by some degree too.
Even a certain thread in these forums will clearly show you how the pro-SNP pro-independence advocates are opposed by many Scots, myself included.


If you think the leave/remain referendum was full of lies, that's not a patch on SNP propaganda.
At least nowadays more and more Scots are realising this.
Putting it bluntly, many Scots are far too canny to fall for that guff.

davomcdave

antrobus wrote: »

Did you not read that blog posting? It contains the following statement;

"So Cherry and Salmond are simply wrong."

Thank you for sharing that.:)



From Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Release Date :27 January 2017;

The total nominal value of Scotland’s International Exports (excluding Oil and Gas) decreased in the last year, falling by £920 million ( 3.2% ) from £28.4 billion in 2013 to £27.5 billion in 2014.

and

In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector (up 0.6%) and the ‘other’ 1 sector (up 16.2%). Manufacturing business exports, which account for more than half of all exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Or try this one; HMRC regional trade statistics, 3rd qtr 2016, release date 06 December 2016;

Of the four UK countries, only Scotland saw a decrease in exports during the year

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Wrong again, eh.:rotfl:

According to a piece in the FT a few weeks ago the cost of decommissioning the rigs and transfer stations is greater than the expected money to be made from the remaining oil under the sea, That doesn't seem like a great way to start a country; the biggest industry is a net liability at likely prices.

gfplux

davomcdave wrote: »

I agree, if something is unsustainable it will stop.

I think that 2017-8 will be the year-and-a-bit of inflation. Inflation is rising in Germany, now 1.7%, the US, now 2.1%, Spain, 1.6%, UK, ditto, and even Italy, just 0.5% but up from deflating prices last year.

Inflation is low right now but is rising in most developed economies and rising fast. At some point central banks will probably increase rates. That is when things will start to get interesting.

With a 20% import tax on Mexican goods into the USA will fire up inflation like no one other thing ever has. This will create an environment for higher interest rates which will spread around the world.
Good for savers, perhaps!

Shakethedisease

cogito wrote: »

Veiled threats of sanctions? By whom? Links please.

As for veiled threats, what about your beloved leaders?

Type in "Scotland trade worth four times more" into Google and you'll see the political message which is common among all newspaper and media outlets getting punted out 24/7 to Scottish readers.

The implication being that if Scotland votes for independence and remains in the EU then trade with the rUK will stop or diminish to an alarming rate. Now don't get me wrong there's never going to be a time were union leaning media outlets are going to say otherwise or admit that things are a little more complex than that.

But the political message is very clear and very obviously framed as a straight either or choice between a UK single market or an EU one. Sturgeon putting EFTA or EEA on the table shoots the fox.

Shakethedisease

antrobus wrote: »

Did you not read that blog posting? It contains the following statement;

"So Cherry and Salmond are simply wrong."

Thank you for sharing that.:)



From Export Statistics Scotland 2014 Release Date :27 January 2017;

The total nominal value of Scotland’s International Exports (excluding Oil and Gas) decreased in the last year, falling by £920 million ( 3.2% ) from £28.4 billion in 2013 to £27.5 billion in 2014.

and

In the latest year exports have continued to increase in businesses classed in the service sector (up 0.6%) and the ‘other’ 1 sector (up 16.2%). Manufacturing business exports, which account for more than half of all exports, declined in the last year by 8.7%.

http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0049/00493251.pdf

Or try this one; HMRC regional trade statistics, 3rd qtr 2016, release date 06 December 2016;

Of the four UK countries, only Scotland saw a decrease in exports during the year

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx

Wrong again, eh.:rotfl:

Yes I read the posting. Fraser pointing out that the USA is the bigger export market based on his reckoning. Other amateur bloggers and commentators pieces are also available.

I didn't say I agreed with him, I read wider than one blogger to form my opinions. You're free like me to make up your own mind. Scotland is a large player in rUK export destinations. This should be bourne in mind. Sturgeon will likely put EEA and EFTA on the table in some form during any second ref as an option. Scottish exports are up across the board and Scotland is the only nation out of 4 in the UK in Trade Surplus. Gas and Oil figures not included.

I'm away to the Scottish thread. This one isn't the place for this really.