If we vote for Brexit what happens

Conrad

melanzana wrote: »

Brexit has ensured a divided country now. Polarisation is inevitable no matter how thoughtful and realistic people might be.

Disaster IMV.

'Liberals' sought to protect thier values from democracy by placing them out of reach by invoking the law or offshoring them to Brusells.

As an example the current use of Courts to usurp a democratic decision.

CLAPTON

melanzana wrote: »

Did he have to negotiate any non EU Trade deals up to now though? Maybe you could advise.

clearly you missed the point

He knows the run around, that is an advantage in Brussels and in the context of the Brexit trade deal negotiations. He knows the complexities involved, but the minute he said what he thought of the possible timetable, he was out.

The Brexit side did not like what he had to say did they? so now he is gone with no succession planning at all.

Do you really believe that one man is that important : do you have any experience of business and/or management or large projects?

Perhaps we could ask Nick Clegg to take his place ; after all he is married to a european.

melanzana

The_Last_Username wrote: »

I would like evidence of what good these "close contacts in Brussels" have been to the UK so far - and especially since the referendum?
Because I for one have not seen a single positive word about the UK from any EU bureaucrat, but I have seen plenty negativity.

So "would have helped Brexit negotiations enormously"- for whom, though?
NOT for the UK, I suspect.
Ten years my arris.

The reality is that positive negotiation comes from those who are realists, and understand the way things work. If the man worked there for years of course he has close contacts, unless he is a hermit.

And another reality is that the UK absolutely needs a good diplomat on side with the other 27 States of the EU now to organise a good exit. Do you not see that?

It is not just about the UK exiting, it is about UK exiting with good Trade Deals with whomever they wish. That is not going to happen if they "sack" or retire those who can help them negotiate their way through all this.

I don't think people realise how difficult all this will be.

Unwinding legal stuff,
Regulations,
Trade,
Visas
Tourism,

There is just so much. I just want it to be relatively trouble free. That's all.

But it will take years and years. There is no exit button two years from A50. Guarantee you that.

Conrad

melanzana wrote: »

The no. 1 negotiator for Brexit Sir Ivan Rogers has just resigned. Or was he pushed?

He was the UK Ambassador to the EU and knew all the nooks and crannys about this. He apparently laid it on the line, and said that the exit would take years and might not be successful either at the end of the day. He knows and has worked with people from the EU for years, so he probably knows more than we do, since he sees things on the ground so to speak.

Now he's gone.

So a successor without all his contacts and experience needs to be found stat.

I really wonder if Whitehall has any Brexiteers at all! So who will be chosen as his inexperienced successor I wonder?

Theresa May is making a dog's dinner of all this really, and won't accept the experienced advice of a very senior diplomat/civil servant on the ground who knows the score.

But hey ho, she will find a way. Might take ten years longer, but it will be done!

For us to win big at the negotiation we require people that profoundly believe in opportunity Brexit presents, that posses imagination and total confidence.

Having that wally round he table would be akin to having a Veggie negotiate on behave of UK beef producers.

Conrad

I just read in The guardian that a retired Irish Diplomat has joined the call for Ireland to get behind the UK s call for a good trade deal. I had a feeling this would happen.

melanzana

Conrad wrote: »

For us to win big at the negotiation we require people that profoundly believe in opportunity Brexit presents, that posses imagination and total confidence.

Having that wally round he table would be akin to having a Veggie negotiate on behave of UK beef producers.

OK I take your point, but do you not think he said it as it is?

So who will be willing to take up the mantle and fluff his lines so he says what Theresa May wants to hear? That is ridiculous IMV.

Saying what your boss wants to hear is not always the right thing to do either, that is why we pay all these Civil Servants a quarter of a million pounds a year or something like that. They HAVE to be objective. Sad that a resignation came when May did not like what he said.

But that may (sorry) have been just posturing for her Brexit stance. She may (sorry) rue the day she pushed him yet.

The PM has no experience of the EU at all. That is what experienced Civil Servants are for. Surely the PM can read and deduce from dispatches. But no.... he is gone.

Anyway, NEXT.... who will (May) Boris replace him with?

I am sure there are thousands of enthusiastic Brexiteers within the confines of the Senior Civil Service and Diplomatic Corps in Whitehall to choose from!

melanzana

Conrad wrote: »

I just read in The guardian that a retired Irish Diplomat has joined the call for Ireland to get behind the UK s call for a good trade deal. I had a feeling this would happen.

Have you a link for that thanks so much. Not seeing much except the main article, but having read it once, won't do it again!

Maybe there is an update or inclusion.

cogito

Conrad wrote: »

I just read in The guardian that a retired Irish Diplomat has joined the call for Ireland to get behind the UK s call for a good trade deal. I had a feeling this would happen.

We will leave and the Irish will follow. 65% of their trade is with the UK, 15 % with the USA and not much with the EU. They are about to become significant contributors to the EU budget and will suffer massively if the EU succeeds in imposing a hike in corporation tax rates. They have little to gain by staying.

The interesting think is that many Eastern European members are also finding funds drying up and in the case of those which are not members of the eurozone, they are finding that the EU are withholding funding for agreed projects (for example, the Danube locks at Constanta in Romania) as a lever to force these countries into the euro. The only eastern European country outside the Baltic to join the euro is suffering greatly as a consequence and this has not gone unnoticed in the Visegrads.

Many observers believe that the biggest threat to the EU is the forthcoming French, Dutch and German elections. I believe that it comes from further east.

The_Last_Username

melanzana wrote: »

The reality is that positive negotiation comes from those who are realists, and understand the way things work. If the man worked there for years of course he has close contacts, unless he is a hermit.

And another reality is that the UK absolutely needs a good diplomat on side with the other 27 States of the EU now to organise a good exit. Do you not see that?

It is not just about the UK exiting, it is about UK exiting with good Trade Deals with whomever they wish. That is not going to happen if they "sack" or retire those who can help them negotiate their way through all this.

I don't think people realise how difficult all this will be.

Unwinding legal stuff,
Regulations,
Trade,
Visas
Tourism,

There is just so much. I just want it to be relatively trouble free. That's all.

But it will take years and years. There is no exit button two years from A50. Guarantee you that.

You are overcomplicating things - unnecessarily, and that is a viewpoint shared by some with far more knowledge and experience of the EU and of politics than either you or me.
John Redwood being just one such example.

We say "Here is Article 50".
Commence much yabber about ........ well, not a lot since everyone has to agree. And if we couldn't agree IN the club, what chance now we want out?
Anyway, queue 24 months in the future.
Agreement or no agreement, the UK is out.
The article very clearly says so.
If that leaving the EU as stated does not happen frankly this country seriously risks civil unrest.

Now regarding this trade agreement tosh - sorry but much of the discussion around this is exactly that; tosh.

Look, if you want a bag of carrots what do you do?
Me, I look for some reasonable-looking carrots at a reasonable price from a choice of shops.
What I definitely do not do is ask first permission of the farmer, the landowner if that is not also the farmer and the seed supplier of the pre-carrots before I buy.
If I find the right carrots at the right price I buy them.

Now yes, this might be oversimplifying our position regarding trade.
But you know what?
When you get right down to it, the real nitty-gritty is exactly the same.
Exactly.

If you honestly do not think so ask yourself this: who buys any product from the carrot mentioned above to, say, a car?
A purchaser?
Or a country/economic area?

Now try telling a Belgian stroop-waffel maker that he can't sell the half of his current manufacturing he does now because you as a country won't let him.
Or a French cheese-maker, or ....... well, any of countless more examples.
Or try telling mainland Europeans that McDonalds prices are increasing by ...... say 25% .......... because you, the EU have decreed that it must be so.


Are you beginning to see the problems with such scenarios yet?
Do you still honestly believe that this type of thing will happen to the UK and EU trading relationship?
I don't.

These things will only take "unwinding" if those determined to do harm (to self AND others) insist upon them needing unwinding.
It really need not be complicated.

So I believe you to be wrong.
Two years and we WILL be out.

melanzana

The_Last_Username wrote: »

You are overcomplicating things - unnecessarily, and that is a viewpoint shared by some with far more knowledge and experience of the EU and of politics than either you or me.
John Redwood being just one such example.

We say "Here is Article 50".
Commence much yabber about ........ well, not a lot since everyone has to agree. And if we couldn't agree IN the club, what chance now we want out?
Anyway, queue 24 months in the future.
Agreement or no agreement, the UK is out.
The article very clearly says so.
If that leaving the EU as stated does not happen frankly this country seriously risks civil unrest.

Now regarding this trade agreement tosh - sorry but much of the discussion around this is exactly that; tosh.

Look, if you want a bag of carrots what do you do?
Me, I look for some reasonable-looking carrots at a reasonable price from a choice of shops.
What I definitely do not do is ask first permission of the farmer, the landowner if that is not also the farmer and the seed supplier of the pre-carrots before I buy.
If I find the right carrots at the right price I buy them.

Now yes, this might be oversimplifying our position regarding trade.
But you know what?
When you get right down to it, the real nitty-gritty is exactly the same.
Exactly.

If you honestly do not think so ask yourself this: who buys any product from the carrot mentioned above to, say, a car?
A purchaser?
Or a country/economic area?

Now try telling a Belgian stroop-waffel maker that he can't sell the half of his current manufacturing he does now because you as a country won't let him.
Or a French cheese-maker, or ....... well, any of countless more examples.
Or try telling mainland Europeans that McDonalds prices are increasing by ...... say 25% .......... because you, the EU have decreed that it must be so.


Are you beginning to see the problems with such scenarios yet?
Do you still honestly believe that this type of thing will happen to the UK and EU trading relationship?
I don't.

These things will only take "unwinding" if those determined to do harm (to self AND others) insist upon them needing unwinding.
It really need not be complicated.

So I believe you to be wrong.
Two years and we WILL be out.

I'm not stupid, and I do not want to be condescended to either in every respect (which means fek off LOL).

Keep your carrotts to yourself! But I am being lighthearted.

The issue is tarriff free trade within the EU and EU regulations.

If the EU allows the UK to trade as normal, what is the benefit of EU membership for everyone else then?

Simple question!