If we vote for Brexit what happens

BobQ

Gloom Monger being ? A realist that does not agree with you?

wotsthat

Conrad wrote: »

It wont be more difficult to trade, period.

That's just head in the sand. If we lose our status as single market participant and are demoted to third country then it's bound to be more difficult to trade.

You make the argument yourself when you say we'll line up quick trade deals with the USA, South Korea etc. and boost exports. What is a trade deal other than a deal to reduce barriers to trade and thus increase it.

Trade with the US won't simply increase because we've left the EU because we'll be trading on exactly the same terms as now. If nothing changes why will trade increase?

You can't have it all ways.

Conrad

BobQ wrote: »

Gloom Monger being ? A realist that does not agree with you?

Nope, in this context, someone refusing to engage with the advantages of independence and filtering out the fact we hold many aces and that EU core nations wont engage in self-harm.


Core national concerns like your citizens ability to carry on selling his wares to the UK, will always trump the abstract goals of the Brussels, technocratic dreamer set.


Not once have I seen you guys recognise we hold considerable trump cards in the form of the military and INTELLIGENCE capability we put at Europes disposal, not once.

Herzlos

Conrad wrote: »

Not once have I seen you guys recognise we hold considerable trump cards in the form of the military and INTELLIGENCE capability we put at Europes disposal, not once.

Because we don't, really. The ace up your sleeve seems to be that we buy lots of expensive Bavarian cars.

We have something to contribute in economic, military and intelligence terms, that still isn't in dispute. That any of that is big enough that the EU will allow us to break it's fundamental tenets and allow us to have and eat our cake? That's just delusional.

It might allow us to get a slightly better deal that EU or WTO (like a discount on EU fees, or a better tariff on something), but it's not going to be cause the EU to jump to our tune.

What's your prediction going forward? Where is all of this new trade actually going to come from?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

What's your prediction going forward? Where is all of this new trade actually going to come from?

where will the EU's new trade come from to replace that of exporting to the UK : will German simply not bother about replacing one of its largest customer?

A_Medium_Size_Jock

Herzlos wrote: »

Because we don't, really. The ace up your sleeve seems to be that we buy lots of expensive Bavarian cars.

We have something to contribute in economic, military and intelligence terms, that still isn't in dispute. That any of that is big enough that the EU will allow us to break it's fundamental tenets and allow us to have and eat our cake? That's just delusional.

It might allow us to get a slightly better deal that EU or WTO (like a discount on EU fees, or a better tariff on something), but it's not going to be cause the EU to jump to our tune.

What's your prediction going forward? Where is all of this new trade actually going to come from?

You base your arguments upon supposition.
And let us be honest, what ANYONE predicts is of absolutely zero relevence, serving only as source for derision.

Example: I predict the abandonment/breakup of the EU before Article 50 would be due to be implemented, i.e. before March plus two years.
This renders talk of trade agreements and FOM wothless since the EU will no longer exist.

Now YOU may "debate" what you like about that prediction BUT until we have actually left the EU, it will remain a possibility.



Instead may we rely upon fact and hard data of what is actually happening - or at least what has very recently actually happened?

The UK has secured more than £15 billion of extra foreign investment since the referendum, ministers announced

It is understood that billions of pounds worth of other foreign deals will be made in the coming months but cannot yet be publicly disclosed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

Now THAT is fact.
And it may help to answer your "Where is all of this new trade actually going to come from?"
Note also "Dr Fox said the investment shows that countries across the world are betting on “our strong economy post-Brexit" from that report and consider the following:
If external investors were as unsure of the UK's future as YOU seem to be, why invest NOW in the UK?

wotsthat

CLAPTON wrote: »

where will the EU's new trade come from to replace that of exporting to the UK : will German simply not bother about replacing one of its largest customer?

Looks like a deflection from the original question given your concern for German exports must lie between 'who cares?' and 'couldn't give a monkey's'.

wotsthat

A_Medium_Size_Jock wrote: »

You base your arguments upon supposition.
And let us be honest, what ANYONE predicts is of absolutely zero relevence, serving only as source for derision.

Example: I predict the abandonment/breakup of the EU before Article 50 would be due to be implemented, i.e. before March plus two years.
This renders talk of trade agreements and FOM wothless since the EU will no longer exist.

Now YOU may "debate" what you like about that prediction BUT until we have actually left the EU, it will remain a possibility.



Instead may we rely upon fact and hard data of what is actually happening - or at least what has very recently actually happened?


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/12/30/britain-has-secured-15billion-extra-foreign-investment-since/

Now THAT is fact.
And it may help to answer your "Where is all of this new trade actually going to come from?"
Note also "Dr Fox said the investment shows that countries across the world are betting on “our strong economy post-Brexit" from that report and consider the following:
If external investors were as unsure of the UK's future as YOU seem to be, why invest NOW in the UK?

£15bn sounds like a lot of money. Do you know how it compares to the same period last year?

Is it definitely a FACT or simply a politician's pronouncement?

My view is the UK will retain a strong economy and foreigners are buying assets with stronger currencies to ensure UK wealth can be exported via future dividend payments.

That's why I remain nearly 100% invested although I do have some doubts that we're going to see a post-Brexit surge in trade.

A_Medium_Size_Jock

wotsthat wrote: »

£15bn sounds like a lot of money. Do you know how it compares to the same period last year?

Is it definitely a FACT or simply a politician's pronouncement?

My view is the UK will retain a strong economy and foreigners are buying assets with stronger currencies to ensure UK wealth can be exported via future dividend payments.

That's why I remain nearly 100% invested although I do have some doubts that we're going to see a post-Brexit surge in trade.

I wonder why I read your post as "I'm running out of negatives regarding Brexit"?
Still, at least you accept that the UK is likely to retain a strong economy - that at least is a step in the right direction.

P.S. - try reading the linked article, as the answers are contained therein.

melanzana

The no. 1 negotiator for Brexit Sir Ivan Rogers has just resigned. Or was he pushed?

He was the UK Ambassador to the EU and knew all the nooks and crannys about this. He apparently laid it on the line, and said that the exit would take years and might not be successful either at the end of the day. He knows and has worked with people from the EU for years, so he probably knows more than we do, since he sees things on the ground so to speak.

Now he's gone.

So a successor without all his contacts and experience needs to be found stat.

I really wonder if Whitehall has any Brexiteers at all! So who will be chosen as his inexperienced successor I wonder?

Theresa May is making a dog's dinner of all this really, and won't accept the experienced advice of a very senior diplomat/civil servant on the ground who knows the score.

But hey ho, she will find a way. Might take ten years longer, but it will be done!