If we vote for Brexit what happens

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

so is your forecast for a massive number of job loses and so massively rising unemployment?

Yes.

if so should we not scale down immigration until the magic of brexit kicks in : what's your estimate for this 1, 5, 10, 20, 30 years?

No. Because the job losses are primarily going to come from leaving the EU markets and the drop in GBP - lack of passporting, harder trade, more expensive trade, more expensive goods, and just general lack of leisure money caused by the same.

Cutting down immigration won't make any difference because we're not talking about migrants taking jobs (and paying taxes), we're talking about jobs just going away.


Not every problem is due to immigrants, and not many Brexit problems will be fixed by cutting down on the number of immigrants.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Yes.



No. Because the job losses are primarily going to come from leaving the EU markets and the drop in GBP - lack of passporting, harder trade, more expensive trade, more expensive goods, and just general lack of leisure money caused by the same.

Cutting down immigration won't make any difference because we're not talking about migrants taking jobs (and paying taxes), we're talking about jobs just going away.


Not every problem is due to immigrants, and not many Brexit problems will be fixed by cutting down on the number of immigrants.

so many of the native born will all be unemployed because of jobs 'just going away' but all new immigrants will just walk into a job.

I'm doubtful about that economic logic.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

I'm doubtful about that economic logic.

So am I, but you're the only one who sees that logic. I really don't understand how you manage to twist everything so drastically.

I'm assuming your objection with migration is that migrants take local jobs, yes?
I'm predicting that there will be massive job losses for both locals & migrants, because the jobs will be going away. So there's no job for a local to have or a migrant to steal.

My point was that if a migrant steals a locals job, the migrant will still pay tax for that job and pay into the pot. If the job just goes away then no-one pays into the pot, thus we're all worse off.

Does that seem reasonable?

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

So am I, but you're the only one who sees that logic. I really don't understand how you manage to twist everything so drastically.

I'm assuming your objection with migration is that migrants take local jobs, yes?
I'm predicting that there will be massive job losses for both locals & migrants, because the jobs will be going away. So there's no job for a local to have or a migrant to steal.

My point was that if a migrant steals a locals job, the migrant will still pay tax for that job and pay into the pot. If the job just goes away then no-one pays into the pot, thus we're all worse off.

Does that seem reasonable?

if brexit is causing job losses and no gains (or net losses anyway) and so locals are unemplyed then it makes no sense to import 300,000 new people fic we already have plenty of people looking for.
presumably it will add 300,000 to the job less total

whether or not any particular job goes to a local or to a immigrant the overall effect will be 300,000 extra unemployed (of course in practice immigrants do create some demand which will cause some emplyment)

PS I personally wouldn't use unhelpful words like 'steal a job) : lets just stick to the economics and the overall welfare of the people.

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

if brexit is causing job losses and no gains (or net losses anyway) and so locals are unemplyed then it makes no sense to import 300,000 new people fic we already have plenty of people looking for.
presumably it will add 300,000 to the job less total

I think you're deliberately conflating 2 completely unrelated issues, in some attempt to justify migration caps. It'll be self limiting; if there's no jobs because we've screwed ourselves financially, they'll be less migration to take advantage of it.

We'll no doubt still need to import people to satisfy a skill set, but yeah, if there's no unskilled jobs there's no need to import more unskilled workers.

But again the problem is the lack of jobs, not the availability of foreigners. Cutting migration won't actually fix anything.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

I think you're deliberately conflating 2 completely unrelated issues, in some attempt to justify migration caps. It'll be self limiting; if there's no jobs because we've screwed ourselves financially, they'll be less migration to take advantage of it.

We'll no doubt still need to import people to satisfy a skill set, but yeah, if there's no unskilled jobs there's no need to import more unskilled workers.

But again the problem is the lack of jobs, not the availability of foreigners. Cutting migration won't actually fix anything.

over quite a few years 2008-2013 ish we had a significant level of unemployment : EU migrants still came

we have no need to import people in any significan numbers due to lack of skills : some yes many no.

did I miss your explanation of why increasing the population makes our per capita GDP grow and is there evidence on the world stage?
Is Greece a good example where immigration is helping their per capita GDP?

Herzlos

CLAPTON wrote: »

over quite a few years 2008-2013 ish we had a significant level of unemployment : EU migrants still came

Yup, and some of them did pretty well, and there are still available jobs.

we have no need to import people in any significan numbers due to lack of skills : some yes many no.

Depends on how you define some.

did I miss your explanation of why increasing the population makes our per capita GDP grow and is there evidence on the world stage?

No, I didn't make that claim. I claimed that with more people paying into the pot and using services, the cost per person, for those services and infrastructure goes down. It's called the economy of scale.

Can you explain why you think GDP per capita will increase if you reduce the population and sever your major trading ties?

Is Greece a good example where immigration is helping their per capita GDP?

Are the Greek economic problems caused by immigration or is it largely irrelevant?

ruggedtoast

Switzerland kowtows!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/dec/16/switzerland-u-turn-quotas-on-eu-workers-immigration

Switzerland makes U-turn over EU worker quotas to keep single market access

]

Oh dear Brexiters.

Oh dear.

wotsthat

Brits doing what they do best - creating businesses which can then be sold to foreign firms.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-38344235

Japanese spirits conglomerate Beam Suntory is to buy the London craft gin brewer Sipsmith.

Overseas firms must be delighted with the Brexit referendum induced fall in Sterling.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Yup, and some of them did pretty well, and there are still available jobs.

there weren't enough jobs for the people of the UK but I'm glad that migrants did well

No, I didn't make that claim. I claimed that with more people paying into the pot and using services, the cost per person, for those services and infrastructure goes down. It's called the economy of scale.

do the economies of scale apply to exports to pay for the increase in imports.
do economies of scale result in every cheaper houses in London and the SE
do the economies in scale cause the higher foreign borrowing to buy the increased level of imports

do economies of scale show themsleve in the every improving transport system

Can you explain why you think GDP per capita will increase if you reduce the population and sever your major trading ties?

we severed many of our major trading ties when we joined the EU : do you think that was a disaster?

If the population was stable we would not need to build more infrustructure or widen roads or absorb more land with housing more schools, more hospitals water works etc.

Are the Greek economic problems caused by immigration or is it largely irrelevant?

Surely you believe the increasing population of Greece will lead to massive economies of scale providing a better living standard, just as the massively increasing population of India and many African and Asia countries are guaranteed a bright future will their ever increasing populations