If we vote for Brexit what happens

antrobus

Herzlos wrote: »

Apart from the source article, which explicitly blames brexit? Does that not count?...

What source article? The BBC quotes FRP Advisory (the administrators) stating that

the biscuit makers had "experienced particularly challenging trading conditions" and been "left with no viable alternative other than to seek the protection of administration"."The problems were compounded by the sharp decline in the value of the pound against the euro,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-38328388

A glance at Rivington Biscuits's accounts shows that they lost £411,743 in 2015 after making a profit in 2014. So I tend to the conclusion that the business was on the downslide even before the pound's decline hit their margins.

Herzlos wrote: »

...Yup, things change and jobs are lost as things become obsolete, that's fair enough. But that doesn't mean we can ignore jobs that we're chosing to make obsolete/unsustainable over some petty xenophobia.

You're accusing Van Delft of "petty xenophobia"? They're Dutch. Which is presumably why Rivington also has a factory in Harderwijk. I have no info on what has happened at that production facility.

http://www.rivingtonbiscuits.co.uk/strategy.html

mwpt

CLAPTON wrote: »

you may indeed have the view that the larger the population then the greater per capita GDP
I see no economic justification for this view, either at the macroeconomic theoretical level or in the real world.
China has a far larger population that the UK but a lower per capita GDP as does Brazil, India, Indonesia etc
Some smaller countries N Zealand, Australia, Singapore etc seem to be doing OK insopite of being handicapped by low population.

Isn't it all relative and more to do with population growth?

vivatifosi

Could part of the problem for Rivington also be that the made products that people didn't really want? I wouldn't imagine there has been much market growth for those pink wafer biscuit packets. So if you are operating in a less popular part of the market, your other products look quite generic... what's going to happen to any company operating on thin margins when prices go up?

It surely can't be the fault of Brexit that we in the UK have changed our tastes and are spending £25.7m less on ordinary biscuits:
http://www.thegrocer.co.uk/buying-and-supplying/categories/ambient/cakes-and-biscuits/biscuit-sales-suffer-as-consumer-snacking-habits-change/545670.article

antrobus

vivatifosi wrote: »

Could part of the problem for Rivington also be that the made products that people didn't really want? I wouldn't imagine there has been much market growth for those pink wafer biscuit packets. So if you are operating in a less popular part of the market, your other products look quite generic... what's going to happen to any company operating on thin margins when prices go up? ...

Yes, they're best known for their Pink Panther wafers. I think I tried them once. I'd rather have a Bahlsen. Other than that they seem to have a 'healthy' bisuit range sold as Count Down, and to make own brand for Lidl. But despite the usual corporate BS, it had the look of a company on the decline.

vivatifosi wrote: »

...It surely can't be the fault of Brexit that we in the UK have changed our tastes and are spending £25.7m less on ordinary biscuits...

The FT reports that Rivington have lost £200,000 per month since July, but doesn't say what they were losing before July. They were profitable up until 2014, then something went wrong in 2015.

Now it seems that Van Delft have decided to dump the company.

prosaver

I think the remoans are getting desperate.
maybe the factory was going to close down anyway and the MD (from holland) probally said, lets blame brexit..

No, its nobody likes them ..there rubbish.
I think the only time people eat them are when they are the last ones in the christmas biscuit tin at Christmas.

had a look at worst biscuit chart.:)

Top 50 Yuckky
Name
(1) Pink Wafers
(2) Fig Roll
(3) Wagonwheel
(4) Rich Tea
(5) Lemon Puff
(6) Iced Gems
(7) Gingernut
(8) Garibaldi
(9) Jaffa cake
(10) Nice
(11) Coconut Cream
(12) Coconut Ring
(13) Pink n White
(14) Custard Cream
(15) Bourbon

Ref;
http://www.nicecupofteaandasitdown.com/favourites/
Btw I like fig rolls ..yum:):)

Herzlos

antrobus wrote: »

What source article? The BBC quotes FRP Advisory (the administrators) stating that

the biscuit makers had "experienced particularly challenging trading conditions" and been "left with no viable alternative other than to seek the protection of administration"."The problems were compounded by the sharp decline in the value of the pound against the euro,"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-38328388

First 2 lines of that article:

A popular brand of pink wafer is under threat after a company went into administration following a "sharp fall" in the value of sterling after Brexit.
Administrator FRP Advisory said a "sustained deterioration" since the EU vote had exacerbated Rivington Biscuits in Wigan's financial difficulties.

You're accusing Van Delft of "petty xenophobia"?

No I'm accusing Brexit as being due to petty xenophobia.

vivatifosi

antrobus wrote: »

The FT reports that Rivington have lost £200,000 per month since July, but doesn't say what they were losing before July. They were profitable up until 2014, then something went wrong in 2015.

Now it seems that Van Delft have decided to dump the company.

Their accounts for the year to 31st Dec 2015 show a pre-tax loss of £412k on a turnover of approx £15.8m, so they were having a tough time pre-Brexit. The notes accompanying the accounts talk about staffing (quality) issues and the market not growing as a result of portfolio optimization. One of their focus areas for this year was due to be "sourcing", so raw ingredient prices could well have been an issue.

However I don't buy the whole "this company failed because of Brexit" line. They were already a company in trouble. If there's anything worth salvaging, they will either be bought by a turnaround specialist, absorbed into the Dutch company or the brands sold. Last nail in the coffin perhaps, but not because of.

prosaver

https://www.endole.co.uk/company/03182725/rivington-biscuits-limited?page=overview
weird in 2013 it started going down hill.

Herzlos

vivatifosi wrote: »

However I don't buy the whole "this company failed because of Brexit" line. They were already a company in trouble. If there's anything worth salvaging, they will either be bought by a turnaround specialist, absorbed into the Dutch company or the brands sold. Last nail in the coffin perhaps, but not because of.

Agreed. It's a company that seems to have struggling for a while, and the GBP change post-Brexit was the final nail.

So it's one of a lot of "just about copings" that may not be getting any better.

CLAPTON

Herzlos wrote: »

Agreed. It's a company that seems to have struggling for a while, and the GBP change post-Brexit was the final nail.

So it's one of a lot of "just about copings" that may not be getting any better.

so is your forecast for a massive number of job loses and so massively rising unemployment?
if so should we not scale down immigration until the magic of brexit kicks in : what's your estimate for this 1, 5, 10, 20, 30 years?